ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

From my own eyes, if there is a center than I think its further south than anyone is looking, probably to move SOUTH of Tobago and to pass directly over Trinidad

no, check radar from trinidad. the curved band looking thing is going through tobago as we speak which is why it has a westlerly wind there which puts the center just north of tobago .. how much longer does it last? who knows convection is dying down again so withouth convergence the chances of what remains of the circ surviving are very very low.

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

[Kingarabian]

I can't be the only one pulling for Don to stay alive just until Hilary forms in the EPac

It makes sense now why the NHC has been delaying naming TD8. I bet they want to save themselves from the media hysteria.

[wxman57]

From my own eyes, if there is a center than I think its further south than anyone is looking, probably to move SOUTH of Tobago and to pass directly over Trinidad

no, check radar from trinidad. the curved band looking thing is going through tobago as we speak which is why it has a westlerly wind there which puts the center just north of tobago .. how much longer does it last? who knows convection is dying down again so withouth convergence the chances of what remains of the circ surviving are very very low.

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

I'm not seeing it. If there is any slight rotation visible in that radar loop it's SE of Tobago. Doesn't qualify as a well-defined LLC with organized convection surrounding it. Just a wave.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Which one of you cheeseheads broke the map agaih.

I kid of course, lol.

[Hammy]

So is this essentially being killed off by the dry air to the north? It seems on radar like the convection is being rapidly pushed to the SW and weakening.

[Aric Dunn]

From my own eyes, if there is a center than I think its further south than anyone is looking, probably to move SOUTH of Tobago and to pass directly over Trinidad

no, check radar from trinidad. the curved band looking thing is going through tobago as we speak which is why it has a westlerly wind there which puts the center just north of tobago .. how much longer does it last? who knows convection is dying down again so withouth convergence the chances of what remains of the circ surviving are very very low.

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

I'm not seeing it. If there is any slight rotation visible in that radar loop it's SE of Tobago. Doesn't qualify as a well-defined LLC with organized convection surrounding it. Just a wave.

By no means do I think its well defined. just that if there is anything it's passing tobago as we speak. Also now that same reporting station is reporting SSW winds as the "center is passing by. its very small

[wxman57]

Tobago airport continues to report very light NE winds. I'm not sure what station on Tobago is reporting any SW winds, but it's not at the official observation point.

NCAR-RAP Real-Time Weather Data
Output produced by METARs form (18 July 2017 20:27 UTC)
found at http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/

TTCP 182000Z 05005KT 9999 -RA VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1012 NSOIG RMK VCSH NE
TTCP 181900Z 06005KT 9999 VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1013 NOSIG RMK VCSH NE
TTCP 181800Z 07005KT 9999 -RA VCSH FEW016 29/24 Q1014 NOSIG RMK VCSH N
TTCP 181700Z 12008KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 30/23 Q1014 NOSIG RMK VCSH NE

Here's the translated version of the last 2 obs from the Tobago airport:

NCAR-RAP Real-Time Weather Data
Output produced by METARs form (18 July 2017 20:29 UTC)
found at http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/

Conditions at: TTCP observed 18 July 2017 20:00 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1012.0 mb)
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1600 feet AGL
Present Weather: VCSH -RA (showers in vicinity, light rain)
TTCP 182000Z 05005KT 9999 -RA VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1012 NSOIG RMK VCSH NE

Conditions at: TTCP observed 18 July 2017 19:00 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.91 inches Hg (1013.0 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1600 feet AGL
Present Weather: VCSH (showers in vicinity)
TTCP 181900Z 06005KT 9999 VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1013 NOSIG RMK VCSH NE

[northjaxpro]

So wxman57 has bought Bones in to make his proclamation uh? Oh well, next lol..

[wxman57]

Here's a screenshot from my workstation with obs plotted over the latest visible sat pic. I'm wondering if the NHC might wait until it passes Trinidad/Tobago before declaring it dead. They don't like to indicate weakening when a system is nearing land. The heavy squalls could be a problem, even through it's only a wave now.

[Aric Dunn]

Tobago airport continues to report very light NE winds. I'm not sure what station on Tobago is reporting any SW winds, but it's not at the official observation point.

NCAR-RAP Real-Time Weather Data
Output produced by METARs form (18 July 2017 20:27 UTC)
found at http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/

TTCP 182000Z 05005KT 9999 -RA VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1012 NSOIG RMK VCSH NE
TTCP 181900Z 06005KT 9999 VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1013 NOSIG RMK VCSH NE
TTCP 181800Z 07005KT 9999 -RA VCSH FEW016 29/24 Q1014 NOSIG RMK VCSH N
TTCP 181700Z 12008KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 30/23 Q1014 NOSIG RMK VCSH NE

Here's the translated version of the last 2 obs from the Tobago airport:

NCAR-RAP Real-Time Weather Data
Output produced by METARs form (18 July 2017 20:29 UTC)
found at http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/

Conditions at: TTCP observed 18 July 2017 20:00 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1012.0 mb)
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1600 feet AGL
Present Weather: VCSH -RA (showers in vicinity, light rain)
TTCP 182000Z 05005KT 9999 -RA VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1012 NSOIG RMK VCSH NE

Conditions at: TTCP observed 18 July 2017 19:00 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.91 inches Hg (1013.0 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1600 feet AGL
Present Weather: VCSH (showers in vicinity)
TTCP 181900Z 06005KT 9999 VCSH FEW016 27/24 Q1013 NOSIG RMK VCSH NE

It had wsw winds few hours ago then straight west the last two hours now is ssw

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/596e7009_677a_25d.png
station
D6067

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/596e705a_5a15_345.png

[wxman57]

It had wsw winds few hours ago then straight west the last two hours now is ssw

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/596e7009_677a_25d.png
station
D6067

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/596e705a_5a15_345.png

That 2 kt wind is insignificant. Can't use that to judge a possible center location. It's most likely due to local terrain effects.

NHC's new advisory kept it a storm (as expected) but acknowledged that it likely has no closed circulation. They're waiting for the plane to confirm its demise.

[Aric Dunn]

It had wsw winds few hours ago then straight west the last two hours now is ssw

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/596e7009_677a_25d.png
station
D6067
iigghhttt
http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/596e705a_5a15_345.png

That 2 kt wind is insignificant. Can't use that to judge a possible center location. It's most likely due to local terrain effects.

NHC's new advisory kept it a storm (as expected) but acknowledged that it likely has no closed circulation. They're waiting for the plane to confirm its demise.

Previous west ob was 12kts. Ill dry to locate that station when i get home

[psyclone]

This system ended up as another name waster but I think of it as yet another MDR foreshock...and the biggies aren't far off now.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down to roughly 1011 ish from the 1015 earlier recon. the center whats left of it is now just nw of tobago might still be some west winds in there. enough to keep a TC is what needs to be determined.

lines up well with surface obs from tobago earlier and radar.

[wxman57]

Plane found a little remnant swirl near 11.9N/61.3W. No TS winds.

[abajan]

Whether it's still a tropical storm or not, Don has caused quite a bit of flooding in T'nT (Trinidad & Tobago).

[wxman57]

Whether it's still a tropical storm or not, Don has caused quite a bit of flooding in T'nT (Trinidad & Tobago).

Right, all it takes is a slow-moving heavy thunderstorm to cause a lot of problems, particularly on a mountainous island.

[cycloneye]

In Trinidad.

[Aric Dunn]

Grenanda winds just switched to NNW.

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL05 (DON)
0000 UTC Jul 19, 2017
Location: 11.9°N, 61.4°W
Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 35 kt (40 mph)
Type: Tropical Storm (TS)
ACE (Storm Total): 0.81