Location: 12.0°N 114.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
EPAC: EIGHT-E - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139027
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
EPAC: EIGHT-E - Post-Tropical
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 16, 2017:
Location: 12.0°N 114.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
Location: 12.0°N 114.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 32
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
I'd wait for ASCAT, but microwave and satellite trends hint that 98E could already be something classifiable.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 07/16/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 31 33 35 36 38 38 38 36 36 39 42
V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 33 35 36 38 38 38 36 36 39 42
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 27 25 23 20 18 17 16 15
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 19 17 17 14 18 18 17 19 16 12 6 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 0 8 2
SHEAR DIR 328 339 348 351 353 340 344 336 323 304 281 305 343
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 148 146 145 143 142 141 141 143 144
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 66 67 68 70 71 75 76 77 80 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR -72 -64 -69 -73 -75 -76 -80 -62 -38 -22 -2 18 28
200 MB DIV 54 54 48 55 40 44 33 28 36 25 6 0 20
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -2
LAND (KM) 1301 1306 1328 1339 1369 1427 1518 1589 1657 1749 1807 1884 1945
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.2
LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.1 115.8 116.4 117.1 118.2 119.3 120.2 120.9 121.7 122.3 123.1 123.9
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 15 14 13 16 23 24 25 33 47 56
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 11. 14. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 114.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.4% 11.7% 5.6% 4.6% 4.6% 2.4% 2.4% 7.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 4.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 10.3% 5.2% 1.6% 1.5% 4.2% 4.3% 2.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 07/16/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 31 33 35 36 38 38 38 36 36 39 42
V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 33 35 36 38 38 38 36 36 39 42
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 27 25 23 20 18 17 16 15
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 19 17 17 14 18 18 17 19 16 12 6 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 0 8 2
SHEAR DIR 328 339 348 351 353 340 344 336 323 304 281 305 343
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 148 146 145 143 142 141 141 143 144
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 66 67 68 70 71 75 76 77 80 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR -72 -64 -69 -73 -75 -76 -80 -62 -38 -22 -2 18 28
200 MB DIV 54 54 48 55 40 44 33 28 36 25 6 0 20
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -2
LAND (KM) 1301 1306 1328 1339 1369 1427 1518 1589 1657 1749 1807 1884 1945
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.2
LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.1 115.8 116.4 117.1 118.2 119.3 120.2 120.9 121.7 122.3 123.1 123.9
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 15 14 13 16 23 24 25 33 47 56
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 11. 14. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 114.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.4% 11.7% 5.6% 4.6% 4.6% 2.4% 2.4% 7.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 4.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 10.3% 5.2% 1.6% 1.5% 4.2% 4.3% 2.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139027
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
during the past several hours in association with a broad area of
low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja peninsula. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development. This system is expected to
move slowly westward or west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
during the past several hours in association with a broad area of
low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja peninsula. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development. This system is expected to
move slowly westward or west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Looks pretty good.
ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP98 (INVEST)
1800 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 12.3°N, 114.7°N
Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)
System ID: EP98 (INVEST)
1800 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 12.3°N, 114.7°N
Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)
1 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 07/16/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 31 32 33 33 31 30 29 30 32
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 31 32 33 33 31 30 29 30 32
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 13 17 19 19 25 23 17 13 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 0 0 2 4 -2 0 -1 0 2 0
SHEAR DIR 341 344 349 351 337 335 320 313 301 282 264 219 210
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 147 145 143 140 140 140 141 143 145
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 66 66 67 68 71 75 77 81 79 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6
850 MB ENV VOR -65 -67 -73 -77 -77 -78 -68 -48 -29 -8 9 28 34
200 MB DIV 56 53 50 27 27 41 31 42 30 56 16 24 17
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
LAND (KM) 1278 1280 1284 1306 1328 1387 1464 1523 1595 1670 1764 1858 1929
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.5 12.2 12.2
LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.2 115.9 116.5 117.2 118.4 119.5 120.3 121.1 122.0 122.9 123.9 124.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 16 15 14 15 18 18 17 24 40 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -10. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 5. 7.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 114.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 9.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 2.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 5.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.1% 3.4% 0.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 07/16/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 31 32 33 33 31 30 29 30 32
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 31 32 33 33 31 30 29 30 32
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 13 17 19 19 25 23 17 13 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 0 0 2 4 -2 0 -1 0 2 0
SHEAR DIR 341 344 349 351 337 335 320 313 301 282 264 219 210
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 147 145 143 140 140 140 141 143 145
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 66 66 67 68 71 75 77 81 79 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6
850 MB ENV VOR -65 -67 -73 -77 -77 -78 -68 -48 -29 -8 9 28 34
200 MB DIV 56 53 50 27 27 41 31 42 30 56 16 24 17
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
LAND (KM) 1278 1280 1284 1306 1328 1387 1464 1523 1595 1670 1764 1858 1929
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.5 12.2 12.2
LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.2 115.9 116.5 117.2 118.4 119.5 120.3 121.1 122.0 122.9 123.9 124.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 16 15 14 15 18 18 17 24 40 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -10. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 5. 7.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 114.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 9.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 2.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 5.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.1% 3.4% 0.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139027
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
An area of low pressure centered about 850 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja peninsula has become better defined
during the past day or so. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive, this system has the potential to become a
tropical depression during the next couple of days before upper-
level winds become unfavorable for development. The low is expected
to move slowly to the west or west-northwest during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
the southern tip of the Baja peninsula has become better defined
during the past day or so. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive, this system has the potential to become a
tropical depression during the next couple of days before upper-
level winds become unfavorable for development. The low is expected
to move slowly to the west or west-northwest during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 7282
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Wow, this thing is looking really good...LLC is very likely located under the convection or slightly east of center.
1 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15432
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
yeah it's likely a TD at this point. Reminds me of Fernanda when she was first classified.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
I've seen worse-looking TD's or TS than this invest area right here, even in WPAC standards..
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15432
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 7282
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Looks better then 95L or 7E within my opinion....Some northerly shear but that shouldn't be enough to stop the upgrade.
0 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15432
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
The LLC is exposed. So it has a LLC. So it should be classified.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15432
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure centered about 750 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja peninsula. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive because of strong upper-level winds, this
system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. The low is expected to move slowly to the
west during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
low pressure centered about 750 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja peninsula. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive because of strong upper-level winds, this
system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. The low is expected to move slowly to the
west during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
0 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15432
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Yellow Evan wrote:Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure centered about 750 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja peninsula. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive because of strong upper-level winds, this
system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. The low is expected to move slowly to the
west during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
To the NHC's defense we haven't had a good microwave pass in 10 hours and ASCAT just missed the storm. However, this low resolution AMSUB pass taken 10 hours ago showed a low level center.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 07/17/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 25
V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 25
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 18 22 26 25 27 28 22 22 8 10 12 8 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 -4 0 -2 5 1 -2 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 310 312 323 322 317 308 302 286 248 173 205 235 256
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 144 143 141 140 139 141 143 146 149 148
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 67 67 69 71 75 76 72 65 65 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 6 7
850 MB ENV VOR -58 -57 -60 -62 -58 -51 -31 -2 11 29 28 31 31
200 MB DIV 28 35 34 31 40 51 52 32 16 8 -22 31 18
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -1 0 0 1 4 3 2 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 1242 1255 1288 1323 1368 1442 1500 1563 1634 1736 1862 2011 2175
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1
LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.7 119.2 120.1 120.9 121.6 122.4 123.5 125.1 126.9 128.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 22 23 21 19 18 23 23 17 14 17 24 20 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -13. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 117.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 07/17/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 25
V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 25
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 18 22 26 25 27 28 22 22 8 10 12 8 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 -4 0 -2 5 1 -2 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 310 312 323 322 317 308 302 286 248 173 205 235 256
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 144 143 141 140 139 141 143 146 149 148
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 67 67 69 71 75 76 72 65 65 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 6 7
850 MB ENV VOR -58 -57 -60 -62 -58 -51 -31 -2 11 29 28 31 31
200 MB DIV 28 35 34 31 40 51 52 32 16 8 -22 31 18
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -1 0 0 1 4 3 2 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 1242 1255 1288 1323 1368 1442 1500 1563 1634 1736 1862 2011 2175
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1
LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.7 119.2 120.1 120.9 121.6 122.4 123.5 125.1 126.9 128.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 22 23 21 19 18 23 23 17 14 17 24 20 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -13. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 117.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP98 (INVEST)
1800 UTC Jul 17, 2017
Location: 13.9°N, 117.0°N
Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Low Pressure (LO)
System ID: EP98 (INVEST)
1800 UTC Jul 17, 2017
Location: 13.9°N, 117.0°N
Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Low Pressure (LO)
1 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
during the past several hours in association with an area of low
pressure centered about 780 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. This system has the potential to
become a tropical depression during the next day or two before
upper-level winds becoming increasingly unfavorable as it moves
slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
during the past several hours in association with an area of low
pressure centered about 780 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. This system has the potential to
become a tropical depression during the next day or two before
upper-level winds becoming increasingly unfavorable as it moves
slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests