WPAC: NORU - Low

[euro6208]

Typhoon Noru moving northeast, causes river flooding

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NORU) WARNING
NR 75//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YOKOTA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW, RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM JAPAN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER ASCAT DATA, INCLUDING A
080103Z PASS. TD 07W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM,
USHERING IN INCREASED WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW AND LAND INTERACTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS MINOR
CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED
SLIGHTLY RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD, BUT A SLOWER OR MEANDERING TRACK
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES UNDER WEAKENING STEERING
CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

JMA is now marking Noru as a low.

LOW
Issued at 18:30 UTC, 8 August 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N39°00' (39.0°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa

[euro6208]

Going back to this thread and looking at 5 post up.

I still can't believe JMA said it made landfall at only 55 knots 10 min when microwave said otherwise. At least JTWC kept it's minimal typhoon 65 knots 1 min intensity all the way as it passed Japan.

55 knots 10 min actually is equivalent to 65 knots 1 min although it did look stronger.