WPAC: NORU - Low

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

.double up pls delete.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://magicseaweed.com/Tanegashima-Air ... ion/68042/
Pessure 973mb

It appears wind speeds have been inconsistent maybe due to gradients.


http://magicseaweed.com/Japan-Live-Wind ... pe=station

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/894032005171740672

[HURAKAN]

Brushing Kyushu

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

STS 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 6 August 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 6 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N31°00' (31.0°)
E131°30' (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

NORU was a interesting storm to track with the structure transition.


MY Gut feeling is PI may get a traditional super- landfall in the not to distant future,

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 060855

A. TYPHOON 07W (NORU)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 31.28N

D. 132.04E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS
A DT OF 4.0. MET/PT 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

TXPQ23 KNES 060309
TCSWNP

A. 07W (NORU)

B. 06/0230Z

C. 30.9N

D. 131.1E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS A DT OF
4.5. THERE ARE NO EYE ADJUSTMENTS. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2017 Time : 081000 UTC
Lat : 31:21:53 N Lon : 131:46:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 965.0mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.7 4.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -41.3C Cloud Region Temp : -57.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.8 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 67//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
STRONG CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO A 5NM EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM JMA DEPICTING A BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS IS BELOW MULTI AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION AND
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION 10 MINUTE AVERAGES OF AROUND 45 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHILE THE SYSTEM RESIDES IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS TY 07W
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS HONSHU AND BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN SOUTH OF MISAWA.
B. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTS WITH THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IT WILL GENERATE A WEAK AREA IN THE RIDGE. TY
07W WILL TRACK THOUGH THE WEAK SPOT IN THE STEERING RIDGE AROUND TAU
36. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN JAPAN ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH CAUSES VWS TO INCREASE. LANDFALL OVER SHIKOKU WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO TAU 24 AND LANDFALL ON HONSHU WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU
24. TY NORU WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL HONSHU THROUGH TAU 72.
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER LAND WITH THE PRINCIPLE
OUTLIERS BEING THE JGSM AND ECMWF MODEL WHICH STILL HAS THE SYSTEM
TRACKING OUT OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN PRIOR TO TAU 72. DUE TO THE
RECENT CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE JGSM AND ECMWF OUTLIERS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU72, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER
CENTRAL HONSHU AND BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF
MISAWA AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A WEAK AREA IN THE SUB TROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS, THE
SYSTEM WILL BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY TAU 96. AROUND TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TYPHOON
NORU IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO COOL WATERS OFF NORTHEASTERN JAPAN. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JGSM AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH STILL HAVE THE
SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. ANALYSIS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SHOWS A GROWING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS HONSHU AND OUT INTO THE PACIFIC, HOWEVER, THE MEAN
STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM OUT OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. DUE TO THE RECENT
CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE JGSM AND ECMF OUTLIERS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF JTWC THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Last pass had nothing more than a TS on the ascat even with the less friction over water.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

The eye looking better defined.

[euro6208]

At least the JMA would have waited for it to pass Japan before downgrading, but hold and behold...this is still clearly a typhoon. Wow imagine the millions of misinformed people but i know Japan is one of the most prepared countries in the world so hopefully nothing too bad happens.

[euro6208]

Typhoon Noru kills two, draws near Japan

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[euro6208]

07W NORU 170806 1200 31.7N 132.4E WPAC 65 974

It does however look alot stronger.

[galaxy401]

07W NORU 170806 1200 31.7N 132.4E WPAC 65 974

It does however look alot stronger.

How much stronger do you think it is? Looks aren't everything you know.

[1900hurricane]

Here are some of the obs from places that spent time within the eye.

[1900hurricane]

Land interaction appears to be taking a toll on Noru. It'll be interesting to see the next set of center obs from Shikoku.

[1900hurricane]

Noru has been exceptionally long lived. At 18Z, it will tie Ioke '06 in terms of longevity with 16.5 Tropical Storm Days. The last system to have existed in the WPac longer than that was Verne '94 with 17.5 TS Days (although Wayne '86 also had 16.5 TS Days). The last Northern Hemisphere (and possibly global, but I don't have Southern Hemisphere stats ready on me) with a longer duration was Nadine '12, with 20.75 TS Days.

[NotoSans]

Down to 974.6mb from Shimizu which is now near the edge of the eye. The intensity estimate from JMA seems a bit off.