WPAC: NORU - Low

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 211631Z DMSP SSMI
89 GHC MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
IN THE AREA RANG FROM 30 TO 31 DEG CELSIUS, CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW,
WHICH WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TS 07W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN SLOW,
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 72, WHILE TURNING SOUTHWARDS,
COMPLETING A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 72. THIS CHANGE IN TRACK
DIRECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY THREE SIMULTANEOUS FACTORS. FIRST, THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH. AT
THE SAME TIME, TS 09W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE NORTH OF TS 07W?S
FORECAST TRACK AND BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION BY TAU 72. LASTLY, AND
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL NOSE IN TO THE SOUTH OF
TS 07W, HELPING ASSIST ITS SHIFT TO A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. TS 07W IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER CONTINUED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU
72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST
SCENARIO, INCLUDING BINARY INTERACTION, THOUGH THEY START TO SHOW
INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
INTERACTION STARTING AROUND TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 09W WILL APPROACH WITHIN RANGE TO INITIATE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 07W. SIMULTANEOUSLY, BOTH THE STR TO THE
NORTH AND NER TO THE SOUTH INTENSIFY AND REORIENT, COMBINING THE
INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, WILL LEAD TO CYCLONIC LOOP TRACK FORECAST
EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BY TAU 120. TS 07W WILL UNDERGO A
RAPID WEAKENING PHASE AFTER TAU 72 AS A FINGER OF THE JET STREAM
BEARS DOWN ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSIDENCE AND CHOKING OFF OUTFLOW TO THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER ITS PREVIOUS TRACK, LOWER SST AND OHC VALUES DUE TO
UPWELLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
AND COMPLEX NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF TS 09W AND THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS a bit weaker only 889 mb at peak while EURO peaks it at 948 mb.

[1900hurricane]

Despite the forming consensus among guidance, I'm still a little skeptical of the intense solutions. I guess we'll see though.

[1900hurricane]

For the time being, it looks like the convection isn't quite centered up with the circulation.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 814 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AREA OF
CONVECTION, WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE DEEPEST CORE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE HAS BEGUN TO SEPARATE FROM THE MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS CONFIRMED BY
A 212330Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A LLCC TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CORE CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE AREA RANGE FROM 30 TO 31 DEG CELSIUS AND ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES. TS 07W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEREAFTER BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 36, WHILE TURNING
SOUTHWARDS, COMPLETING THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 36. THIS
CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION IS A RESULT OF DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE STR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, BLOCKING FURTHER WESTWARD
MOVEMENT, AND THEN PUSHING IT SLIGHTLY SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24 AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF
TS 07W, HELPING ASSIST ITS SHIFT TO A MORE EASTWARD TRACK.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTH, AND WILL
BE CAPTURED BY TS 07W BY TAU 72 IN A BINARY INTERACTION EVENT. TS
07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER CONTINUED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, WITH A PEAK
INTENSIFICATION RATE OCCURRING JUST BEFORE TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM
TAPS INTO AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 72. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH TAU 48 AND UNANIMOUS IN
SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, THOUGH THEY BEGIN TO SHOW
INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 09W WILL APPROACH WITHIN RANGE TO INITIATE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 07W. SIMULTANEOUSLY, BOTH THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NER TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL INTENSIFY AND REORIENT AND
COMBINED WITH THE INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, WILL LEAD TO A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP TRACK FORECAST. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 120, TS 07W
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS,
CHOKING OFF OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS LOSS OF OUTFLOW WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY LOW VWS AND HIGH SSTS. WITH THE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE BINARY INTERACTION SCENARIO, THERE IS
DECREASING UNCERTAINTY LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED INTENSITY
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROXIMITY OF TS 09W
AND THE IMPACT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 220310
TCSWNP

A. 07W (NORU)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 28.4N

D. 154.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS OVER 1/3 INTO DG RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.5. MET =
3.0 AND PT = 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

TS 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 22 July 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 22 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°35' (28.6°)
E154°00' (154.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 23 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°25' (28.4°)
E152°55' (152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°00' (27.0°)
E153°50' (153.8°)
Direction and speed of movement SSE Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 25 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20' (26.3°)
E155°30' (155.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ESE Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE MASS OBSCURING THE IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220528Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CENTER POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS WITH BROADER BANDING EVIDENT. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BROAD
UPPER-LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TS 09W. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS,
CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS. TS 07W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 THEN THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU
48 DUE TO A COMBINATION OF TWO PRIMARY FACTORS. THE FIRST FACTOR IS
THAT THE STR WILL WEAKEN EAST OF JAPAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SECOND FACTOR IS RELATED TO THE
APPROACH AND TRACK OF TS 09W (KULAP), WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE
WITHIN 400 NM BY TAU 48 RESULTING IN BINARY INTERACTION. TS 07W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, INCLUDING BINARY
INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 09W WILL APPROACH WITHIN
240 NM BY TAU 72 AND 215 NM BY TAU 96. CONSEQUENTLY, TS 07W SHOULD
BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION WITH A CYCLONIC TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF TS 09W. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MARKED WEAKENING PHASE
WHERE 07W WEAKENS TO 65 KNOTS OR LOWER BY TAU 120. IN GENERAL, DUE
TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
TS 09W AND THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Even the very conservative JMA brings it down to 948 mb.

[euro6208]

EURO a bit weaker only 950 mb at peak now.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS at 994 mb and 06Z GFS peaks it at 892 mb. This will be fascinating to watch. That southwest dip would almost bring it over the CNMI and east of Iwo To. It brings a devastating typhoon to Greater Tokyo.

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

Impressive "peacock's tail" exhaust atm

[1900hurricane]

Core convection now appears to be located at Noru's center. At least in the near term, things do appear to be lining up for future intensification.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS
BECOMING MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC AND OVERLYING THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 221756Z DMSP SSMIS 89 GHZ COMPOSITE
IMAGES, WHICH ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED UNDER THE DEEP
CORE CONVECTION WITH WEAK CONVECTION BANDING INTO THE COMPACT LLCC.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE
AND DECREASING CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BROAD UPPER-
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TS 09W. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND THIS IS
SUPPORTING A WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS WELL, RESULTING IN AN
OVERALL EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS LOW AT 5-10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 30 DEG
CELSIUS. TS 07W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TUTT TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 09W TO THE EAST, AND THE STR TO THE NORTH AND THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 THEN SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO FACTORS. FIRST, AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR CENTERED OVER EAST CHINA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND TOWARDS THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS NER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACH AND ULTIMATE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, WILL LEAD THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AROUND
TAU 60, THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN INTERACTING
AND TS 07W WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARDS THROUGH TAU 72. TS 07W IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, PEAKING
AT 80 KNOTS, TAPPING INTO VARIOUS OUTFLOW CHANNELS PROVIDED BY THE
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUPPORTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, INCLUDING
BINARY INTERACTION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 09W WILL APPROACH WITHIN
200 NM BY TAU 72 AND THE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BE FULLY CAPTURED IN A
BINARY INTERACTION. CONSEQUENTLY TS 07W WILL TRACK IN A CYCLONIC
LOOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TS 09W. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WIL CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH TS 07W
MOVING UNDER THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WILL CHOKE OFF
THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE OVER TOP OF
THE SYSTEM AND LEADING TO A SLOW WEAKENING. THE RATE OF WEAKENING
WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM
WATERS. IN GENERAL, DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TS 09W AND THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Quite a loop. EURO brings this over ChichiJima and peaks it at 934mb while GFS continues to go bonkers again down to 884mb.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

00Z GFS at 994 mb and 06Z GFS peaks it at 892 mb. This will be fascinating to watch. That southwest dip would almost bring it over the CNMI and east of Iwo To. It brings a devastating typhoon to Greater Tokyo.

If it did then in my home's TV will show many news of Tokyo being hit by the typhoon.

[Yellow Evan]

22/2030 UTC 28.3N 151.5E T3.0/3.0 NORU -- West Pacific

[mrbagyo]

On JMA's target area.

[Yellow Evan]

23/0230 UTC 28.2N 151.3E T3.5/3.5 NORU -- West Pacific