EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2017071918, , BEST, 0, 69N, 815W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 90, 2017072000, , BEST, 0, 72N, 827W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 90, 2017072006, , BEST, 0, 75N, 843W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 90, 2017072012, , BEST, 0, 78N, 860W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 90, 2017072018, , BEST, 0, 81N, 878W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, ep752017 to ep90201

If the models are right,this one will be a very strong Hurricane and high ACE producer.

[Sciencerocks]

Honestly, this is insane how active the eastern pacific is.

Wouldn't surprise me if every invest develops within the next couple of weeks...

[Ntxw]

Is this the storm models make really strong 5-7 days from now?

[Sciencerocks]

Is this the storm models make really strong 5-7 days from now?

I believe so.

[cycloneye]

Is this the storm models make really strong 5-7 days from now?

Yes,this is the one GFS and ECMWF make a very strong Hurricane.Is located the lowest in latitude of the rest of systems out there.

[Sciencerocks]

12z gfs

[cycloneye]

SHIP goes in this first run up to 80kts and very warm sst's combined with little shear is a great combo to get a robust Hurricane.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 07/20/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 28 34 43 53 59 64 70 74 80
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 28 34 43 53 59 64 70 74 80
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 23 24 26 28 31 36 45 60
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 6 2 2 6 7 10 11 12 8 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 7 6 6 7 3 0 -2 -2 -7 -8 -7
SHEAR DIR 39 44 24 16 39 359 20 24 44 59 73 88 85
SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 147 146 148 150 153 152 152 156 157 159
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 8
700-500 MB RH 75 78 77 74 72 70 72 76 76 78 78 82 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 17
850 MB ENV VOR 52 65 65 46 40 50 42 20 10 4 2 19 24
200 MB DIV -1 18 13 12 1 12 33 71 91 86 88 73 50
700-850 TADV 6 5 3 3 4 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 312 423 547 599 623 679 651 653 675 652 604 496 419
LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.7 14.0
LONG(DEG W) 87.8 89.3 90.7 92.1 93.4 95.6 97.7 99.5 100.7 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.9
STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 13 12 11 10 7 5 2 5 7 10
HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 11 16 13 10 12 16 22 28 38 40

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 14. 23. 33. 39. 44. 50. 55. 60.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.1 87.8

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 07/20/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 30.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 31.9% 13.0% 4.7% 1.6% 30.3% 57.4% 63.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Consensus: 1.0% 11.4% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 10.2% 19.3% 21.1%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 07/20/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Models show it eventually recurving at this time, but we're slowly switching to a pattern where storms move more west. Could be another big ACE producer.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Already in visible image looks good.

[Sciencerocks]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are
showing increasing signs of organization over the far eastern
Pacific southwest of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are
showing increasing signs of organization over the far eastern
Pacific southwest of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

This one may be the stellar cyclone of the season if things are perfect on the enviroment and in the track.

[1900hurricane]

This is pretty far east in the basin. It's actually east of New Orleans right now. Climatologically, these are the ones to watch for the fireworks.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS really blows this up:

[cycloneye]

Closeup of 18z GFS.

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP90 (INVEST)
0000 UTC Jul 21, 2017
Location: 8.3°N, 89.4°W
Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 20 kt (23 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 07/21/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 26 28 34 44 52 60 64 70 76 82
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 26 28 34 44 52 60 64 70 76 82
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 26 28 32 39 49 65
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 5 2 7 7 8 9 11 8 8 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 6 7 7 0 0 0 -3 -6 -6 -2
SHEAR DIR 40 24 12 7 341 358 30 36 60 65 101 84 74
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 147 147 150 153 154 152 153 155 153 154
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 77 76 72 69 67 70 75 76 75 78 79 80 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 13 14 18
850 MB ENV VOR 64 61 43 30 32 33 23 6 0 -7 0 -3 10
200 MB DIV 15 7 2 -18 -18 4 61 76 73 61 79 48 58
700-850 TADV 5 2 2 2 1 -1 0 -3 -2 0 1 0 -1
LAND (KM) 438 560 624 658 699 706 678 707 725 696 607 529 544
LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.5 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.3 12.4 13.6 14.5
LONG(DEG W) 89.4 91.0 92.6 94.0 95.3 97.7 99.6 101.2 102.3 103.0 103.5 104.7 106.6
STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 13 13 11 9 7 4 5 8 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 8 9 13 19 16 10 12 18 31 45 47 27 24

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 34. 36. 37. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 14. 24. 32. 40. 44. 50. 56. 62.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.3 89.4

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 07/21/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 24.0% 79.5% 57.7% 34.9% 21.9% 68.4% 69.1% 73.7%
Bayesian: 0.2% 6.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Consensus: 8.1% 28.8% 19.8% 11.8% 7.4% 23.1% 23.2% 24.6%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 07/21/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave continue
to show signs of organization over the far eastern Pacific southwest
of Central America. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly favorable for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 07/21/17 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 41 50 59 67 73 79 86 88
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 41 50 59 67 73 79 86 88
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 34 36 41 48 60 77 94
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 3 4 4 5 8 9 5 2 4 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 5 1 1 -1 -6 -5 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 7 1 352 325 304 352 21 49 66 85 78 335 56
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 149 151 154 155 154 155 157 158 157 155
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 72 70 73 74 74 76 79 80 76 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 20 22
850 MB ENV VOR 72 56 46 52 48 33 17 5 -7 0 20 6 15
200 MB DIV 20 18 8 16 7 42 63 94 87 78 73 49 49
700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 0 0 -2 -5 -2 1 0 0 -4
LAND (KM) 547 592 600 629 666 613 625 658 630 516 403 407 576
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.9 14.5 15.8 16.0
LONG(DEG W) 90.7 92.2 93.6 94.9 96.2 98.6 100.5 101.7 102.2 102.6 103.8 106.2 109.1
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 12 7 5 5 8 11 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 8 11 16 15 10 12 18 29 41 46 28 24 19

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 10. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 25. 34. 42. 48. 54. 61. 63.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 90.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 5.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 17.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 13.2% 64.5% 43.7% 23.7% 12.9% 47.6% 79.2% 76.8%
Bayesian: 0.1% 8.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8%
Consensus: 4.5% 31.8% 20.8% 8.1% 4.4% 22.2% 32.8% 25.9%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

The most likely to be Hilary in this one. 99E i doubt it will be.