WPAC: NESAT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 170721 0000 6.0N 136.0E WPAC 15 1010

Another invest up.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

023
WWPQ80 PGUM 210340
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
128 PM ChST Fri Jul 21 2017

PMZ161-211400-
KOROR PALAU-
128 PM ChST Fri Jul 21 2017


...Developing monsoon circulation over Palau...

A Circulation was located about 140 miles southeast of Palau near
6 degrees North 136 degrees East. The circulation has not moved
much over the last 12 hours but it is expected to track slowly
west over the next day before moving northwest.

Satellite derived winds indicate winds of 25 to 30 mph mainly
south and southwest of the circulation between 1N and 5N with
lighter winds of 10 to 15 mph elsewhere.

Showers and thunderstorms cover a large area south and southwest of
Palau. Models keep the bulk of the shower activity west and south of
the main islands of Palau but periods of showers and thunderstorms
are likely through the weekend. Rainfall will be heavy at times
across Palau through Sunday. Brief flooding has already occurred over
Palau and more flooding is likely over the weekend.

Winds and waves will increase further so that sea conditions may
become hazardous to small craft as the circulation passes close to
Palau.

Expect north to northwest winds today becoming southwest by Saturday
night. Winds may increase to between 20 and 30 mph Saturday night
as the circulation passes west of Palau. Winds will likely be higher
west and south of Palau.

If you are planning outdoor or marine activity or inter-island
travel...be aware of current marine conditions and stay informed
on the latest forecasts and advisories issued by the National
Weather Service and local Emergency Management Offices.

Products issued by the National Weather Service are posted on the
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).


$$

Ziobro/Simpson

[doomhaMwx]

It must be the one that models strengthen over the Philippine Sea next week...

Also a LPA on 00z JMA Srfc Analysis
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 07N 138E NW SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

Yeah 976 mb landfall for Taiwan as per GFS.

985 mb from EURO.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. A 210044Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST. A 210045Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Sciencerocks]

The western pacific is attempting out do the eastern pacific! Certainly active.

LLC is centered near 5.3/136.5. Chances look ok for its future I'll guess.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 211225
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
948 PM ChST Fri Jul 21 2017

PMZ161-171-220200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
948 PM ChST Fri Jul 21 2017


...Monsoon circulation developing over Palau...

A Circulation is centered about 140 miles southeast of Palau near
6 degrees North 136 degrees East. The circulation is expected to
drift slowly west-northwest over the Koror area on Saturday.

Satellite derived winds indicate winds of 25 to 30 mph south and
southwest of the circulation with lighter winds of 10 to 20 mph
elsewhere. Sea conditions could become hazardous is these areas
with a combination of southwest swell and wind waves of 8 to 10
feet developing this weekend across Palau and possibly into Yap
State.

Showers and thunderstorms cover a large area west and southwest
of Koror, with more developing farther east. Models keep the bulk
of the showers west and south of the main islands of Palau tonight
but periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely through this
weekend. Rainfall will be heavy at times over Palau through
Sunday and there will be a significant potential for mud slides.
Some flooding has already occurred and more flooding is likely
over the weekend.

If you are planning outdoor or marine activity or inter-island
travel...be aware of current marine conditions and stay informed
on the latest forecasts and advisories issued by the National
Weather Service and local Emergency Management Offices.

Products issued by the National Weather Service are posted on the
WFO Guam web page at www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/.

$$

Simpson

[euro6208]

.Western Micronesia...
The main weather producer over western Micronesia is a developing
circulation southeast of Palau near 6N136E. Models show that the
development of the circulation will be gradual through the weekend.
Scatterometer data from last night and this morning shows a band of
20 to 30 knot winds west and south of the circulation center.
Satellite imagery shows areas of scattered to numerous showers with
isolated thunderstorms associated with this circulation. GFS shows
the center passing just south of Palau Saturday while ECMWF has it
passing over Palau. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are likely though Monday. Winds of 10 to 20
knots are expected tonight and Saturday but will likely increase
to 15 to 25 knots with higher gust Sunday night and Monday. These are
the first estimates on this system and things may change with time.
On a positive note...the 24-hour pressure change over Palau is
increasing pressure. If the circulation was rapidly developing
there should be falling pressures and this is not the case. Even
if the circulation does not intensify rapidly it will bring
periods of heavy rain. There had been reports of flooding on Palau
on Thursday and this was before the circulation really began to
develop. No matter what intensity the circulation reaches it will
still bring periods of heavy rain to Palau and more flooding is
likely as the ground is already saturated. If the rainfall is
persistent than there will be the possibility of mudslides in some
areas. The circulation will also cause an increase in seas of up
to 10 feet by Sunday night. A southwest swell will gradually
build through the weekend. The southwest swell will increase surf
on west, southwest, and south facing reefs. Surf could briefly
become hazardous sometime on Sunday or Monday. As the circulation
pulls northwest of Palau the weather will gradually improve by
mid-week.

Convergence will develop northeast of the circulation center and
bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to Yap Saturday
through Sunday night. The increased pressure gradient will also cause
winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots Saturday night and remain that
high through next Wednesday.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
NOAA AOML SST ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER VERY
FAVORABLE (31C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.

[1900hurricane]

I honestly like this one's potential the most.

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 220105
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1102 AM ChST Sat Jul 22 2017

PMZ161-171-221400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1102 AM ChST Sat Jul 22 2017

...Monsoon circulation developing near Palau...

The circulation passed across Palau late Friday night and early this
morning and is now centered about 60 miles north-northwest of Palau
near 8 degrees North 134 degrees East. The circulation is expected
to drift slowly west-northwest over the next few days.

Satellite derived winds indicate winds of 25 to 30 mph south and
southwest of the circulation with lighter winds of 10 to 15 mph
elsewhere.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the circulation have moved
west of Palau and models keep the bulk of the showers away from
the main islands today. These showers are expected to build back
over Palau tonight.

Rainfall will be heavy at times over Palau through Monday and there
is still be a significant potential for mud slides. Some flooding
has already occurred and more flooding is likely through Monday.

Sea conditions could become hazardous in these areas with a combination
of southwest swell and wind waves of 8 to 10 feet developing the
next few days across Palau and possibly into Yap State.

If you are planning outdoor or marine activity or inter-island
travel...be aware of current marine conditions and stay informed
on the latest forecasts and advisories issued by the National
Weather Service and local Emergency Management Offices.

Products issued by the National Weather Service are posted on the
WFO Guam web page at www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/.

$$

Ziobro

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 134.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70
NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER IT. A 220023Z METOP-A AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
IT. A 220024Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-
15 KNOT WINDS AND A STRONGER BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15KT), AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU SHOW AN
ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE OF 1008MB, UNCHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH CONSOLIDATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

The NAVGEM and CMC has this passing south of Okinawa and striking the MiyakoJima and Yaeyama Islands.

The EURO is more southerly. It strikes Taiwan head on (988 mb) and into China.

[euro6208]

The GFS is forecasting a powerful typhoon out from this one hitting Taiwan. 00Z had 930 mb and latest 06Z is 946 mb. A Typhoon chaser's big dream.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY
410 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 230055Z METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A VERY BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KT), AND WARM
SSTS (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ARE DIVIDED AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL CONSOLIDATE. ECMWF, UKMET, AND GFS SHOW THE
DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH INVEST 91W BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND
CONSOLIDATING, WHILE GSM AND NAVGEM SHOW NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[dexterlabio]

I think the chances for this one to become a formidable storm is decreasing, especially if Noru manages to intensify even more and track more westwards. I believe that is what the latest Euro run is showing, its development will be thwarted by Noru's outflow, once the latter grows into a monster typhoon and tracks more west and south.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 128.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY
324 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 240120Z METOP-A AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A VERY BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT.
A 240035Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC BUT 10-15 KNOT
WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KT), AND WARM SSTS (29-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, INDICATING THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH CONSOLIDATION
POSSIBLE AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Now it's a TD.

WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 147E 50N 152E 58N 152E 58N 172E 52N 170E 40N
151E 40N 147E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 139E 42N 141E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 38N 165E 38N 150E 33N 142E 33N
139E 35N 139E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 27N 139E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 49N 141E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 55N 149E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 13N 129E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 24N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 179E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 120E TO 37N 129E 37N 136E 38N 140E 39N 144E
46N 152E 50N 155E 52N 162E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 970 HPA AT 25.9N 157.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1706 KULAP (1706) 1002 HPA AT 32.8N 155.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1708 SONCA (1708) 994 HPA AT 17.1N 107.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

And it's named "Gorio" by PAGASA.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

06z GFS run had Nesat/Haitang (if it does, i am lucky!) become Cat 5 super typhoon, absorbing Noru, and hitting Kyushu, Korea, and Liaodong (Woah, this could be retired!):