WPAC: NESAT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 251100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 129.1E TO 21.2N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 128.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 13N 129.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 250619Z SSMI
85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261100Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 250932

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (E OF MINDANAO)

B. 25/0900Z

C. 13.42N

D. 128.72E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

TXPQ29 KNES 250916
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 25/0830Z

C. 13.5N

D. 128.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON CSC. DT OF 1.0 BASED ON GT 0.2
BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

NAVGEM barely does anything with this. Maybe just a TD or weak TS before getting absorbed by Noru.

[euro6208]

EURO strengthens this to a mere 993 mb before getting absorbed into Noru.

[euro6208]

GFS on the other hand still insisting a 953mb typhoon will hit Northern Taiwan.

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Yeah, models are still in disagreement on where will 99W eventually end up, with some showing the system hitting Taiwan and/or the Ryukyus during the coming weekend, and some turning it to the NE before reaching land and possibly also getting absorbed by Typhoon Noru...

[wxman57]

Models have initialized it WAY too far east (near 130E). It's clearly west of 129E, maybe close to 128E - and it appears to be a tropical storm, based on a 12Z ASCAT pass.

[euro6208]

It would get the name *Nesat*. Used two times in 2005 and 2011, it peaked both times as a Cat 4 with the latter hitting Luzon at peak.

[mrbagyo]

The Fujiwara scenario kinda reminds me of the botched forecast made by JTWC about Huge Tropical Storm Talas and compact Super Typhoon Nanmadol in 2011. In their initial forecast, they had Talas absorbing Nanmadol. Well, it didnt turned out that way - Talas remained huge but weak while Nanmadol went nuts before crushing into Extreme Northern Luzon - no interaction.

I think two system should be sufficiently close to each other and one should be both significantly stronger and bigger to absorbe the other one, otherwise it wont happen.

IDK but some models kinda always overdoo Fujiwara.

[mrbagyo]

I agree with wxman57 about the current position

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 252126
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 25/2030Z

C. 14.8N

D. 128.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 WHITE BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT
IS ADJUSTED UP TO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER
LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...WHISNANT

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 252149

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SE OF LUZON)

B. 25/2100Z

C. 14.81N

D. 128.50E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT YIELD 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN34 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/251051ZJUL17//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.6N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 25.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 128.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z
AND 270300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (KULAP)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW). THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 251100).//
NNNN

[Alyono]

Just curious,

how is this a TD when there is a large area of 45 kt winds?

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bds244.png

[doomhaMwx]

WTPN34 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/251051ZJUL17//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.6N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 25.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 128.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z
AND 270300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (KULAP)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW). THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 251100).//
NNNN

Forecast graphic

[Sciencerocks]

Just curious,

how is this a TD when there is a large area of 45 kt winds?

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bds244.png

It isn't. Just that the JWTC seem to only use T numbers and nothing else.

[NotoSans]

Upgraded to TS Nesat.

WTPQ23 RJTD 260300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1709 NESAT (1709) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 260300UTC 15.9N 128.3E FAIR

MOVE NNW 08KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH

FORECAST

24HF 270300UTC 18.4N 128.5E 60NM 70%

MOVE N 06KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT =

[mrbagyo]

sheared.

[Alyono]

not that sheared. ASCAT shows the center near the edge of the convection. Not exposed like Sonca was for several days