WPAC: HAITANG - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Both JTWC and JMA are at 40 kt with Haitang, which I imagine is in direct response to the ASCAT pass.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Okay. Now it's Haitang. Well i have to bet for Haikui to be retired this time.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEAR TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
WEAK BANDING FEATURES STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A 290536Z 89 GHZ GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HIGHER THAN AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND IS BASED A 290211Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING
A BROAD REGION OF 40 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING HINDERED FROM THE EXHAUST OF NEARBY TY 11W
(NESAT) TO THE EAST INDUCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, THERE IS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A WELL
DEFINED LLCC AT THE SURFACE. SSTS ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28
CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 12W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID
TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STEERING RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACCELERATING TS HAITANG ON ITS CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE AND TS
HAITANG IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 24
THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TAIWAN WITH LAND INTERACTION DISRUPTING THE
LLCC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST EXTENDING WELL INTO
THE LUZON STRAIT. DURING THIS TIME TY NESAT WILL BE OVERLAND CHINA
TO THE WEST OF TS HAITANG. A COMBINATION OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE TS HAITANG TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL OVER CHINA. TS HAITANG IS EXPECTED TO
FULLY MERGE WITH TY NESAT BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
DIFFERING TRACKS DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION ASSOCIATED WITH TY
NESAT WHICH SEEMS TO DEPEND ON TY NESATS FORWARD MOTION. A SLOWER
TRACK WOULD RESULT IN TS HAITANG PASSING THE EAST OF TAIWAN AND A
LATER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A PROGRESSIVE
ADVANCE OF TY NESAT RESULTING IN TS HAITANG PASSING TO THE WEST OF
TAIWAN. DUE TO THE COMPLEX TC INTERACTION AND POSSIBLE TRACK
SCENARIOS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Both JTWC and JMA are at 40 kt with Haitang, which I imagine is in direct response to the ASCAT pass.

Yes finally they actually looked at ASCAT. Finally!

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TS 11W'S EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 11W'S CENTER
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ONLY ABOUT 355NM NORTH-NORTHEAST, HOWEVER,
THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BINARY INTERACTION
OCCURRING. A 291406Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK, CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A DEFINED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER
POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOWER AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
(1.5 TO 2.0), THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
A 291403Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. TS 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK, NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AS TS 11W TRACKS
INTO CHINA AND THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS FORECAST AS UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE (VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES), HOWEVER, SLIGHT WEAKENING NEAR TAU 12 IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 24, TS 12W SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. OVERALL, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND BINARY INTERACTION IS NOT OCCURRING OR NEGLIGIBLE,
THEREFORE THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Now Taiwan's 2nd most populous city gets a visit.

WDPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12 (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION NOW OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A 300446Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD BOTH REPORTING T2.5 (35 KNOTS). SHIP
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO REPORTING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30
KNOTS SUPPORTIVE OF THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
IMPROVING AS TY 11W MOVES TO THE WEST AND IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING
OVER LAND. TS HAITANG IS NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN TAIWAN GUIDED BY A
MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE STEERING RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN,
ACCELERATING TS HAITANG NORTHWARD. LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL
DISRUPT THE LLCC, HOWEVER GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE LUZON STRAIT. DUE TO THE RAPID ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM
TS HAITANG WILL NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER
CHINA AROUND TAU 18. TS HAITANG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE MERGING WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TY 11W WHILE OVER CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT, DIFFERING SLIGHTLY WHILE INTERACTING WITH TAIWAN AND
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

TS 1710 (Haitang)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 30 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°55' (22.9°)
E120°35' (120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Insane rain rate is being experienced by Kaohsiung right now.


Here are the top 10 2-day total rainfall accumulation in Taiwan.

[1900hurricane]

Here's an updated rain tally from the past few days.

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 25.7N 119.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 119.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.8N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.6N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 118.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND MSI INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MADE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PINGTAN (58944) AND HAS TRACKED INLAND.
OBSERVATIONS FROM PINGTAN INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS
WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 991MB. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN