WPAC: HAITANG - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Eastern South China Sea Invest.

92W INVEST 170726 0600 16.6N 114.8E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

It has some model support. EURO bombs this east of Taiwan at 942 mb.

[euro6208]

Latest EURO drops the monster typhoon instead gets absorbed into Nesat. Maybe weak TS at best.

GFS also agrees.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) LOCATED NEAR 18.1N
115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 261740Z AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A
LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 261902Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
HONG KONG. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 115.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 115.1E, APPROXIMATELY
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. A 262318Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MOSTLY EXPOSED ELONGATED
AREA OF TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS HONG KONG.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

EURO with a 991 mb landfall for Southern China and merges with Nesat and stalls it over Shanghai for 4 days.

GFS quiet.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N 115.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.1N 151.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A 271401Z AMSU 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A COINCIDENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A
BROAD SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM, AND WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AIDED BY
AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE
NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
282100Z.
//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like 92W will slowly move westward within the next 24 or 36hrs and may become a weak Tropical Depression/Storm... It'll accelerate northeastwards after the slow westward movement, then dissipate either due to unfavorable shear or due to possible interaction with Nesat once the latter(Nesat) is already over Taiwan or over the Taiwan strait...

[Alyono]

looks like this will get pulled over Taiwan. Could be a severe rain event from the 1-2 punch

[doomhaMwx]

Upgraded to 12W...

12W TWELVE 170728 0600 19.2N 116.3E WPAC 30 999

[doomhaMwx]

12W will probably affect Taiwan shortly after Nesat(11W) moves through the country, then dissipate or merge with the latter(Nesat) over eastern China...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 280900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 01 CORRECTED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
(TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
DISORGANIZED FRAGMENTED BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON A 280231Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING SEVERAL 30 KNOT
WIND BARBS AT THE EDGE OF SWATH EMBEDDED IN A LARGE REGION OF 25
KNOT WINDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING HINDERED FROM THE EXHAUST
OF NEARBY TY 11W (NESAT) TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, THERE IS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
SSTS ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 12W IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD IN A POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM AND ESTABLISHES THE
FORECAST REASONING.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST AND TD 12W WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION. AS TY
11W PASSES SUFFICIENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, A MID TO LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST GUIDING TD 12W NORTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WHILE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE STRENGTHENS, FEEDING INTO TD 12W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTION FROM TY 11W IS
EXPECTED, MITIGATING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AROUND TAU 72, TD 12W WILL BE
JUST EAST OF TY 11W, IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY. LAND INTERACTION WITH
TAIWAN DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. JUST AFTER TAU
72 TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
CHINA WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF 11W, ALSO
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TY 11W. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: 11W IS NOW AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND
HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO REFLECT THAT.
NNNN

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I hope this will be not be named "Haitang"... this is because i want Haitang to be retired. And i want to give it a chance for it though.

[euro6208]

I hope this will be not be named "Haitang"... this is because i want Haitang to be retired. And i want to give it a chance for it though.

Sounds like the devastating *Haiyan* pummeled into Southern Philippines. Yeah better to give the name to something weak.

[euro6208]

Down to 985 mb from EURO before making a landfall over Fujian Province. 1-2 not only for Taiwan but for China as well.

Fujian alone has close to 37 million people. About 95 percent of the population of New York state and Florida combined.

GFS goes for Taiwan.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
28/1621Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER WITH INTENSE CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY TD 12W IS DRIFTING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST AND TD 12W WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION. AS TY
11W PASSES SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, A MID TO LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST, GUIDING TD 12W NORTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WHILE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE STRENGTHENS, FEEDING INTO TD 12W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTION FROM TY
11W IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN NEAR TAU 36 WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH FUNNELING THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT WILL KEEP THE
WIND FIELD BROAD AT HIGHER SPEEDS. JUST AFTER TAU 36 TD 12W WILL
TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEING PULLED INTO TY 11W OVER CHINA. TD 12W
WILL FULLY MERGE WITH TY 11W BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TY
11W. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

40 kt wind vectors found by ASCAT.

[euro6208]

12W TWELVE 170729 0600 18.6N 116.8E WPAC 40 993

Up to 40 knots.

[euro6208]

Given the name Haitang by JMA.