WPAC: INVEST 96W

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 170729 1200 32.7N 170.6E WPAC 15 NA

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
32.7N 170.6E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSERVED IN A 291002Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
REGION OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (40-50 KNOT). MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE 48-72HRS AND
NOT TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.