ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2017073012, , BEST, 0, 285N, 865W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 80, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al762017 to al982017,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118902

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has developed over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of
Apalachicola, Florida. Upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics tonight and Monday before it moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and into the western Atlantic
by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and
northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please see
additional information from your local National Weather Service
Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Hammy]

There would be a couple if ironies if this formed, one being my 2015 theory for the season (which had a similar sort of system--and this may be far enough south to actually form this time) and the second being my comic having a character named Emily, camping in Florida, while a hurricane of the same name hits (and that happens to be the next name on the list.)

This should be a good test for the NAM (which I believe was updated recently) since it likes spinning up smaller-scale storms on occasion. Could end up being the first one to be right similarly to Claudette a few years back if it spins up, especially it seems a small low has already formed at the surface.

[NDG]

[Nimbus]

Clear rotation on the long range radar this morning, the center was drifting SW.
Lots of shear and dry air chasing it south but maybe the models will do something with an initialized center?

Looks like the ASCAT cut off its ear..

[tolakram]

live visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6056&y=5276&z=3&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/891724459790487552




Not sure if that is directly related, but this may be one of those sleeper systems that cause a lot of TS-like problems.

[NDG]

Saved long range radar loop.

[Hammy]

That's quite a spin though I'm assuming at mid-levels. Still, could spin up quickly into something if it can maintain convection, given the shear seems relatively low and waters are plenty warm enough.

[northjaxpro]

Well defined Low Pressure area in the GOM currently. I am interested in seeing buoy reports, which I will check out shortly. I think this has a decent chance of being a minimal T.S. at least before the system moves across the Florida peninsula in the next 48 hours or do.

[BobHarlem]

Well defined Low Pressure area in the GOM currently. I am interested in seeing buoy reports, which I will check out shortly. I think this has a decent chance of being a minimal T.S. at least before the system moves across the Florida peninsula in the next 48 hours or do.

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/891727886197157889




A bit far out (near Tampa), but if this is a hint of things to come it sure is interesting.

[northjaxpro]

Also, it looks as if the circulation is drifting S/SE at this time.

[northjaxpro]

Well defined Low Pressure area in the GOM currently. I am interested in seeing buoy reports, which I will check out shortly. I think this has a decent chance of being a minimal T.S. at least before the system moves across the Florida peninsula in the next 48 hours or do.

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/891727886197157889




A bit far out (near Tampa), but if this is a hint of things to come it sure is interesting.

Thanks for posting this. That report may be a tad too far away from the LLC, but it is interesting nonetheless. If convection can perculate a bit more near the LLC, this system may start cranking a bit.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2017073018, , BEST, 0, 284N, 855W, 30, 1009, LO

[Nimbus]

The strongest wind gusts are from the SW ahead of the center, will it go stationary later or get trapped under the upper level high centered over Texas?

[Steve]

The strongest wind gusts are from the SW ahead of the center, will it go stationary later or get trapped under the upper level high centered over Texas?

All the mesoscale models are putting another low in by 36 hours roughly SSE of Lafayette that migrates back toward the TX Coast at 1012 or so.

[MGC]

Pretty decent circulation has developed today. Not sure how strong it is at the surface. Looks to be moving to the SE.....MGC

[floridasun78]

look like want get close south fl naple area unless turn ne soon

[gatorcane]

Saved loop. This is some front for late July. You can clearly see the spin in the EGOM moving SE. I see it around 28N 85W. Look at all the fair weather cumulus over Georgia north of the front. Looks fall-like.

[CrazyC83]

Are any Recon missions planned?

[Kingarabian]

Saved loop. This is some front for late July. You can clearly see the spin in the EGOM moving SE. I see it around 28N 85W. Look at all the fair weather cumulus over Georgia north of the front. Looks fall-like.

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/456rynelb/vis_lalo-animated.gif[img]

Right? Tack on a Nor'easter to add to the funkyness of this season.