ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Why no models thread? Is it because it's set in stone. Btw, national news stated earlier that Emily would be no threat to the Carolinas.

We love that kind of statement. On the other hand after last years fiasco with Matthew I'll breathe a sigh of relief only after it passes.

It looks as if what is left of Emily should hopefully pass safely off shore the Carolinas on the Atlantic later this week. I say hopefully with emphasis on this! Monitor closely until it passed by your latitude.

[USTropics]

Animated visible image of TS Emily using the new GOES-16 Mesoscale 1min sector:

[Aric Dunn]

Its been drifting or nearly stationary just east of the tampa radar for the last hour or two..

[Emmett_Brown]

The circulation looks a bit disrupted ATM. Maybe reforming to the East along the coast?

[Aric Dunn]

The circulation looks a bit disrupted ATM. Maybe reforming to the East along the coast?

It is possible that may occur overtime. however its very easy to see on radar out of tampa. nearly stationary just east of the tampa radar site.

[Emmett_Brown]

The circulation looks a bit disrupted ATM. Maybe reforming to the East along the coast?

It is possible that may occur overtime. however its very easy to see on radar out of tampa. nearly stationary just east of the tampa radar site.

Ahh... yep, I see it. Not a lot of returns, but you can faintly see the LLC right there just E of Tampa. So, it seems like the higher topped storms are being sheared off to the NE, and the LLC is lagging behind now.

[Sanibel]

Blustery here from band...


Don't know what the slow movement means...

[johngaltfla]

It was an interesting day commuting around Sarasota County, that's for sure. And just like the posters said, once it came on to land near Anna Maria, the blue skies showed up right on schedule. Welcome to the non-active active GOM season.

[Aric Dunn]

Blustery here from band...


Don't know what the slow movement means...

Could be that since the convection has died off its being affected more by the low flow which is very weak to maybe northerly..

just have to watch

[tailgater]

Can you pick out the Tropical Storm in this Pic?

[beoumont]

Why no models thread? Is it because it's set in stone. Btw, national news stated earlier that Emily would be no threat to the Carolinas.

We love that kind of statement. On the other hand after last years fiasco with Matthew I'll breathe a sigh of relief only after it passes.

On the Friday evening weather broadcast of Channel 7 in Miami on August 21, 1992 most everyone recalls the long time TV weather man stating, "Looks like the tropical storm will continue northwestward north of Puerto Rico and well east of the Bahamas for several days. You all have a great long weekend, as the storm appears to pose no threat to the US mainland.

About 12 hours later a huge midlevel ridge began to build just off the Outer Banks, Andrew abruptly turned westward, a wall cloud developed in front of the recon. crews eyes. Late Sunday night and Monday morning, cat. 5 Hurricane Andrew plowed into S. Florida moving 22 mph with a central pressure of 922 mb.

[BobHarlem]

Is the center east of Tampa or the convective ball near Seabring/Lake Placid? On the long loop it would make it seems the latter, but I can't discount the spin east of tampa.

[wxman57]

There are no TS winds associated with Emily. Expect a downgrade this hour. It doesn't even appear to meet the qualifications for a depression now. Center is poorly-defined with no organized convection around it.

[Aric Dunn]

The easily defined center is still just drifting to stationary slightly NW of the town of Duette. the lack of convection is the likely casue of the sudden drop in forward motion as the steering in the low levels is different. if convection does not return near the center then it will likely end up getting strung out and something redeveloping offshore the east coast.

[cycloneye]

...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SEBRING FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Emily's appearance in satellite and radar imagery has degraded
significantly since the previous advisory, with only weak convection
noted near the low-level center. The deepest convection is well
removed from the center and lies across southern Florida and the
Keys. Since Doppler velocity values at any altitude have decreased
to less than 40 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt,
resulting in Emily being downgraded to a depression on this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 070/10 kt. Emily made landfall on
Anna Maria Island, Florida, around 1445Z. Since that time, the
depression has been moving steadily eastward to east-northeastward,
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. NHC
model guidance remains in very good agreement on Emily emerging off
the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning, and then
accelerating northeastward ahead of a digging mid-level trough and
frontal system through the remainder of the forecast period. There
is high confidence that Emily will not directly affect the
southeastern United States after the small cyclone emerges over the
Atlantic Ocean. The new NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to
the east of the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the
TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Some additional weakening is possible tonight while Emily moves
across the central Florida peninsula and entrains more dry air from
the north and west of the system. However, once the compact cyclone
emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic
Ocean on Tuesday, some gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin
while the vertical wind shear is modest at around 15 kt. By 48 h,
the shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt, which should act to
cap Emily's intensity until the cyclone dissipates or merges with a
frontal system in 96-120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain
tropical storm status when it exits the Florida east coast Tuesday
morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area.

The primary threat with Emily will continue to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the southeastern Florida peninsula
through tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 27.8N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 01/0600Z 28.4N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 01/1800Z 29.9N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 35.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 38.1N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Aric Dunn]

Its clearly not at the location in the 5pm advisory.. RED dot is 5pm position.. its so close to the radar that is no need to argue we are looking far enough above the surface that we are seeing some sort of mid level circ ( whic is not there)

Also the last 30 min it has begun to move again to the ESE... which again is quite clear on radar.. That and quite a few of the mesoscale models have been showing a ESE motion as well as the 12z GFS exiting south of brevard county..

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone notice the LL rotation with the latest convective burst almost due south of the Mouth of the Miss? I think I saw the GEM developing a pretty potent Vort out there somewhere.

[Aric Dunn]

And now its moving SE.... its now Se of the town Duette

of course these are short term motions.. long term avg has been east to ESE

[Dean4Storms]

Its clearly not at the location in the 5pm advisory.. RED dot is 5pm position.. its so close to the radar that is no need to argue we are looking far enough above the surface that we are seeing some sort of mid level circ ( whic is not there)

Also the last 30 min it has begun to move again to the ESE... which again is quite clear on radar.. That and quite a few of the mesoscale models have been showing a ESE motion as well as the 12z GFS exiting south of brevard county..


https://image.ibb.co/dfgtQQ/dfghjgfdsghf.png

The surface low could be up near the red dot with the MLC sheared to the SSW of it. That is possible here.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone notice the LL rotation with the latest convective burst almost due south of the Mouth of the Miss? I think I saw the GEM developing a pretty potent Vort out there somewhere.

Latest HRRR radar simulation also develops this rotating with a convective ball there by 10am EST tomorrow. Need to continue watching the Gulf in my opinion.