ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Its clearly not at the location in the 5pm advisory.. RED dot is 5pm position.. its so close to the radar that is no need to argue we are looking far enough above the surface that we are seeing some sort of mid level circ ( whic is not there)

Also the last 30 min it has begun to move again to the ESE... which again is quite clear on radar.. That and quite a few of the mesoscale models have been showing a ESE motion as well as the 12z GFS exiting south of brevard county..

The surface low could be up near the red dot with the MLC sheared to the SSW of it. That is possible here.

I referenced that argument in my post... it was too close to tje radar site to make that assumption.

The only thing one could do is .. the lowest pressure "observed" from offical reporting station's is there. However the well defined circulation is not and has continued amd east to ese motion as clealry visible..

[abajan]

... Don't know what the slow movement means...

Flooding.

[Aric Dunn]

Its Starting to elongate east to west as the convection develops to the east side of the state. its well south of the NHC track and moving/stretching out along a lone from Vero Beach to Wauchula and Seabring. some sort of center reformation is likely if enough convection develops.

[HurricaneBelle]

Reminds me of a smaller and weaker version of 2001's Gabrielle, which also became diffuse over Central FL after moving in just south of Tampa Bay. Gaby eventually regained her strength in the Atlantic and became a hurricane.

[Blown Away]

I just hope the red dot doesn't keep moving ESE over me...

[Aric Dunn]

Somewhere near Vero beach or slightly south for a reformation location.. but offshore of course.

[Aric Dunn]

The "circ itself is just south of Wauchula at the moment and accelerating ese to east towards the convection.. might pop out even south of Vero Beach

if its still tropical at that point who knows.. looking more frontal again.. we will see in the next few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

its now passing the latitude of FT pierce.. just NNE of Arcadia

[Aric Dunn]

Passing south od Seabring with some deep convection sround it again. its hanging on and looks like its heading towards Okeechobee unless it stops heading ESE.. its farther south than any of the models including the mesoscale that I have seen..

[tatertawt24]

Can you pick out the Tropical Storm in this Pic?

It looks more like a trough.

[gatorcane]

Seems further south than I thought it would be at this point. How much more latitude will it lose?

[Blown Away]

Is that the center near Lake Placid?
http://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

[Aric Dunn]

Is that the center near Lake Placid?
http://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

pretty much its between Des soto city, Plains, and lake placid. still heading ESE.. heading towards Okkeechobee

[gatorcane]

Tornado warning for parts of Martin County near Indiantown.

[Aric Dunn]

Still expecting some sort of reformation as it approaches the coast. but its well south of forecast.

[AdamFirst]

Tornado warned storm emerging off of Lake Okeechobee

.Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
908 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

FLC085-010130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170801T0130Z/
Martin FL-
908 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
MARTIN COUNTY...

At 905 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was over rural western Martin county just east of Lake Okeechobee
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
The storm will continue moving Northeast over Western Martin county
through 920 PM.

[Hammy]

Still expecting some sort of reformation as it approaches the coast. but its well south of forecast.

Wouldn't that put it further from the heavier shear?

[Aric Dunn]

Still expecting some sort of reformation as it approaches the coast. but its well south of forecast.

Wouldn't that put it further from the heavier shear?

techincally. more so farther from the dry air.. probably why convection has returned. when all the northern models had little to no convection until well offshore

[weathaguyry]

If it reforms farther southward, maybe it will have more time in favorable conditions which may lead to more strengthening, this may end up being a mid grade TS if that happens

[NDG]

I arrived to SE FL to dead calm seas this afternoon contrary to west central and SW FL coastal waters.
Now winds and seas picking up this evening.