ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Amazing how land interaction often tightens up LLC's. The overall circulation is becoming better established on visible sat... has a nice curl to it. Im interested to see if it can wrap a little during the day and become more symmetrical.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/892039552399011840

[tolakram]

Buoy reports close to TS force winds. Not sure height or location of this one though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mtbf1

[Aric Dunn]

Check out how fast the center reformed. Look at thr multiple meso vorticies ! That was very amazing to see. The velocities peaked at just over 80 kts in areas. This is very reminicant of Fay..

[floridasun78]

Impressive blowups in the visible loop.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6672.5&y=5390.5&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

that because of land been warm soon hit land their go storm like afternoon storm

[floridasun78]

what highest wind report doing landfall?

[TheStormExpert]

What the hell? I just woke up with a TS on my door step.

Just shows you how unpredictable the tropics can be and quickly things can escalate.

[NDG]

Sarasota airport reported 49 mph wind gusts.

[Aric Dunn]

what highest wind report doing landfall?

A few reports coming in. but I imagine with what just transpired some pretty interesting reading will likely start showing up..

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/892039552399011840

Just so people know, ASOS uses a 2 minute average wind. So that should compare well to a 1 minute sustained wind.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/Jackson_Dill/status/892041509213753344

[floridasun78]

good thing their was some shear and dry air on Sunday was not case we could see cat 1 hurr it got warm gulf stream gave it energy when shear drop and dry air move out it way

[MississippiWx]

I am amazed at what Emily has done while making landfall. Another day over water would have been all she needed for hurricane status.

These systems don't typically like to weaken much over Florida. I'd keep watching it to see if it strengthens a little more or at least maintains strength until it reemerges in the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/Sean_Breslin/status/892044343640502273

[floridasun78]

I am amazed at what Emily has done while making landfall. Another day over water would have been all she needed for hurricane status.

These systems don't typically like to weaken much over Florida. I'd keep watching it to see if it strengthens a little more or at least maintains strength until it reemerges in the Atlantic.

nhc dont see it becoming ts again in Atlantic

[Steve]

Pretty cool with classification and landfall within 2-2 1/2 hours. It was the right call to upgrade. Looks like another low pressure center will form and move into FWB/Destin in the next couple of days per NAM 12z it looks weak, but there could be a similar situation to what happened with Emily - except I doubt it gets classified.

[floridasun78]

with models was right with 98l becoming Emily?

[TheStormExpert]

I am amazed at what Emily has done while making landfall. Another day over water would have been all she needed for hurricane status.

These systems don't typically like to weaken much over Florida. I'd keep watching it to see if it strengthens a little more or at least maintains strength until it reemerges in the Atlantic.

Could always make a run at hurricane status once it emerges into the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 850mb vorticity much more pronounced than the 06Z run as it moves across Florida, looks like vorticity actually increases as it moves across Florida:

[Steve]

with models was right with 98l becoming Emily?

I didn't look hard enough. NAM was showing the circulations, but it was torn between stalling and moving across Florida. I think that has more to do with the likelihood of another low pressure center forming in the Gulf confusing the model. The 12z runs are out for 12km and 3km already. Tough to say if Emily will emerge and re-intensify or if she might transition to subtropical or extra-tropical.