ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Interesting developments, it doesn’t look like it will turn out to be much more than a rain producer this go around. Btw, I must have missed it, but where are the models threads for active storms?

[TheStormExpert]

5 named storms before Aug 1st and some are posting season cancel posts.

5 "weak/short-lived" storms before August 1st.

[toad strangler]

5 named storms before Aug 1st and some are posting season cancel posts.

5 "weak/short-lived" storms before August 1st.

Name Wasters

[Ivanhater]

5 named storms before Aug 1st and some are posting season cancel posts.

5 "weak/short-lived" storms before August 1st.

All qualified to be named. 2004 didn't even have 1 storm by this point and we know how that turned out.

Emily looks pretty good right now.

[MGC]

Surprise, surprise.....didn't expect Emily out of this so soon. Looks to be ashore in a few hours. Y'all on Florida stay safe.....MGC

[BobHarlem]

Long term radar of 98L/Emily: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?257

[Aric Dunn]

continues to drop ese.

[BobHarlem]

Some surge at the Ft. Myers station https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/water ... id=8725520

[HurricaneBelle]

Emily reminds me quite a bit of the system that was never named off Melbourne a few years ago; in fact, the Melbourne system seemed nastier as I recall.

[wxman57]

So I guess the million dollar models missed this one.

No, the models all predicted a weak low in the eastern Gulf Today. That's about what we have out there. I think it does qualify for a TD, but not a TS (based on actual surface obs not elevated Doppler wind). Center is moving into the coast now between St. Petersburg an Sarasota. Sarasota has south winds at 22 mph, St. Pete ENE at 17 mph. Nothing remotely close to TS strength.

[Stormcenter]

But that being said they did not predict a TS so "technically" they all missed it because the NHC officially classified it as a TS.

So I guess the million dollar models missed this one.

No, the models all predicted a weak low in the eastern Gulf Today. That's about what we have out there. I think it does qualify for a TD, but not a TS (based on actual surface obs not elevated Doppler wind). Center is moving into the coast now between St. Petersburg an Sarasota. Sarasota has south winds at 22 mph, St. Pete ENE at 17 mph. Nothing remotely close to TS strength.

[chaser1]

So I guess the million dollar models missed this one.

No, the models all predicted a weak low in the eastern Gulf Today. That's about what we have out there. I think it does qualify for a TD, but not a TS (based on actual surface obs not elevated Doppler wind). Center is moving into the coast now between St. Petersburg an Sarasota. Sarasota has south winds at 22 mph, St. Pete ENE at 17 mph. Nothing remotely close to TS strength.

Couldn't agree more. I think NHC was quick to name her but there is that proximity factor I suppose. Have to say though, it was pretty impressive how quick and easy a small tight COC was able to organize and in spite of the shear that is pushing off most of any co-located weather off to it's southeast.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Gotta say I sure didn't expect a Tropical Storm to be making landfall this morning #Emily

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892022214559756288

[chaser1]

By the way, one could argue that the CMC handled this fairly well......

[wxman57]

But that being said they did not predict a TS so "technically" they all missed it because the NHC officially classified it as a TS.

So I guess the million dollar models missed this one.

No, the models all predicted a weak low in the eastern Gulf Today. That's about what we have out there. I think it does qualify for a TD, but not a TS (based on actual surface obs not elevated Doppler wind). Center is moving into the coast now between St. Petersburg an Sarasota. Sarasota has south winds at 22 mph, St. Pete ENE at 17 mph. Nothing remotely close to TS strength.

No, they didn't predict a TS, but I don't think there is a TS out there, except in name only. Remember, this was upgraded based upon a Doppler wind well above the surface. The NHC used an 80% conversion to bring it down to the surface, but that conversion may not be valid in a system like this. Surface obs offshore Tampa and on the coast support 22-28 mph at most.

[Alyono]

So I guess the million dollar models missed this one.

no, the models were nearly unanimous in forecasting a low would form in the eastern Gulf

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like FLorida is going to have its usual effect on developing/organizing TC. convective enhancement looks like its starting occur I dont think we are going to see a "fay" number two but the it may look better on radar once inland..

[OuterBanker]

Interesting statement at the 9:34 NWS statement Morehead, NC.
"Thursday...There is growing confidence that a tropical wave may
emerge into the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida
Wednesday into Thursday and travel up the coast. The low
pressure system in question currently sits just off the west
coast of central Florida. This will be something to watch in the
coming days, as the potential tropical system may track close
enough to bring rain showers to the NC coast."

Emily wasn't mentioned in the statement. Is this a separate entity, or do they not check with the NHC. Puzzling.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Glad this is moving in now. Radar clearly shows the storm becoming better defined, with a tight band of thunderstorms wrapping around the CoC, despite the strong shear and dry air.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is is rapidily being pulled to the deep convection would not be surprised to see a nice defined systems with convection in all quads shortly. it wont last too long with the shear but very similar to what Fay did.