EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Let's see if we get Jova out of this. GFS back to being bullish again.

[Ntxw]

Yeah it will be interesting to see if the KW idea pans out.

[Kingarabian]

Grain of salt.

[cycloneye]

Until next Friday is the window.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific Ocean are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph south of the coast of Mexico.
Upper-level winds will likely become unfavorable for development by
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Ntxw]

[gatorcane]

Looks like the upgraded GFS busted horribly on future Jova. I am fully expecting the GFS to do something similar on Atlantic side at some point when things heat up where it shows something strong like Jova only for it to not materialize. It is clear the upgraded GFS has an intensity bias.

1. An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with a
tropical wave is located southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This
activity is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Some
development of this system is possible before conditions become less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to show
some signs of organization. However, there are no indications that
the system has a closed circulation, and environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for development by the weekend.
This disturbance should move west-northwestward at about 15 mph for
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[HURAKAN]

[talkon]

Now TD 11-E. Not expected to strengthen.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 041443
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017

First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 confirms that the
low pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has a well-defined low-level center. Deep
convection has persisted since yesterday, mainly in the western
portion of the circulation, and Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and
SAB are a consensus 1.5. Based on these factors, the system has
been classified as a 25-kt tropical depression.

The depression is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an
upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. The shear is not
expected to relax during the next few days, and this should keep the
system weak. In fact, I currently have no guidance that suggests
that the system will ever become a tropical storm. The intensity
forecast therefore shows no change in intensity until the system
becomes post-tropical in a couple of days due to the persistent
shear and a drier environment.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at
13 kt, though the initial speed is somewhat uncertain since the
center has only recently become well defined. Since the cyclone is
forecast to remain weak, it should be steered primarily by the low-
to mid-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge. The GFS
and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that this will keep the
depression moving in a near straight-line heading for the next day
or two. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone should slow
down substantially while it dissipates early next week. The track
forecast is very close to the model consensus, TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.7N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 19.2N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 20.7N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[NDG]

The easterly shear over this system has been relentless. LLC passed over the Island of Socorro where the pressure dropped just below 1000mb but winds barely got 35 kmph.

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017

The center of the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for
most of the day. A few convective bursts located well to the west
and northwest of the center have been observed periodically during
the afternoon, but they are probably not contributing to the
maintenance of the circulation, and do not meet the criteria of
organized deep convection for a tropical cyclone. On that basis,
the cyclone has been declared a remnant low and this is the last
advisory. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

A pair of ASCAT passes around 1636 and 1722 UTC showed max winds of
about 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been set to that value.
The 1722 ASCAT-A pass also indicated that the circulation may
already be opening into a trough. The remnants should continue to
gradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating
entirely within about 36 hours, if not sooner, as shown by the
ECMWF, GFS, and SHIPS models.

The post-tropical cyclone has continued to move a little right of
the forecast track, perhaps due to the lack of deep convection that
could have forced it farther west with the mid- to upper-level
flow. Instead, it should continue to be steered by the weak
low-level flow, generally north-northwestward or northwestward,
until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/0600Z 20.9N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky