ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1521 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:58 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:Gert has the look of a low end Cat 3 on satellite.


Yeah, I agree. Without recon, I doubt it will ever be classified as such. It has to be peaking soon.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1522 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:54 pm

Hopefully this gets bumped up in post-analysis if it isn't raised at 11pm. I'm personally thinking at least 90kt at the moment, which is what it'll go into my personal archive as.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1523 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:51 pm

Hammy wrote:Hopefully this gets bumped up in post-analysis if it isn't raised at 11pm. I'm personally thinking at least 90kt at the moment, which is what it'll go into my personal archive as.



I am with you Hammy. I would say this is at least 90 kts. Impressive hurricane.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1524 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:55 pm

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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1525 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:18 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Hammy wrote:Hopefully this gets bumped up in post-analysis if it isn't raised at 11pm. I'm personally thinking at least 90kt at the moment, which is what it'll go into my personal archive as.



I am with you Hammy. I would say this is at least 90 kts. Impressive hurricane.


Latest BT now 90kt, which given Gert looked better earlier tells me it could get upgraded post-season.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1526 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:31 pm

Gert was consistently stronger than the NHC forecasts. Still very difficult to forecast strength and development of tropical cyclones even with all of our advanced technology. In my opinion, the NHC relies too much on models and satellite estimates at times. Doesn't seem like much intuition and skill from forecasters was used on Gert. However, the NHC is normally terrific overall in what they do. I get to use my gut and "feelings" on these storms way more freely than they do. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1527 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:33 pm

Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017

Gert has maintained an eye with very cold cloud tops mainly over
the northern and western portions of the circulation, which is
rather remarkable for a system at 40N latitude. The current
intensity is set a little higher, to 90 kt, in agreement with the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone has
continued to traverse warm waters, but very soon will encounter a
much cooler ocean to the north of the Gulf Stream. Thus, rapid
weakening is forecast, similar to the latest model consensus. In 36
hours the global model guidance depicts the system becoming embedded
in a distinct baroclinic zone, so Gert should have become an
extratropical storm by that time. The extratropical cyclone is
forecast to merge with another large low over the north Atlantic
after 72 hours.

Gert has continued to accelerate and is now moving
east-northeastward near 32 kt. A slightly faster motion is
expected on Thursday in the strong flow to the southeast of a
mid-tropospheric cyclone nearing Newfoundland. Later in the
forecast period, the post-tropical system is likely to turn
northeastward and slow down significantly while it interacts with
the other large low.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated
guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

Swells from Gert should continue to affect the northeast U.S. coast
and Atlantic Canada through Thursday. These swells are likely to
produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 40.1N 58.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 42.6N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 46.5N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 50.5N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0000Z 52.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1528 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:42 pm

For at least a short time, the Atlantic will be above average for ACE. It's now at 14.01.

The 1950-2016 average through August 16th is 13.57 and for August 17th 14.36
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1529 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:01 pm

was good hurr that didnt hurt any one
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1530 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1531 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:13 pm

Amazing to see Gert hold together so well under high shear, dry air and rapidly cooling SST’s. Incredible storm to track.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1532 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:42 am

Gert's definitely on its way out. It was a very interesting storm to track. Not sure how likely it is that it will be updated post-season but my peak guess would be 95 kts.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1533 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:16 am

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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1534 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:18 am

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Re: ATL: GERT - Hurricane - Discussion

#1535 Postby Cunxi Huang » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:50 am

Kazmit wrote:Gert's definitely on its way out. It was a very interesting storm to track. Not sure how likely it is that it will be updated post-season but my peak guess would be 95 kts.


i agree with that 95 kt
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Re: ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1536 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...GERT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.8N 46.0W
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
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