ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

Looks like the upgrade is coming at 11 PM. 0z guidance initialized with 65 KT intensity.

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=8350.5&y=4981.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[cycloneye]

Maybe the first major of the 2017 season?

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...GERT BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 72.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Satellite images show that Gert has developed an eye, although the
convection is weak in the western eyewall. Still, microwave images
show a healthy inner-core structure, with plenty of deep convection
in the eastern eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates unanimously
support making Gert a hurricane on this advisory, and the initial
wind speed is set to 65 kt, close to the TAFB figure.

Some light or moderate northerly shear is forecast to continue to
affect Gert for the next day or so, which might limit the
intensification rate. On Wednesday, however, the shear is forecast
to drop off as Gert accelerates northeastward over warm waters with
a large increase in upper-level divergence also noted. This is
typically a favorable environment for intensification, and the
official forecast is raised from the previous one, lying between
the model consensus IVCN and the higher corrected consensus aids.
Gert is expected to complete extratropical transition within 72
hours, then gradually weaken over the North Atlantic before it
merges with a larger extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.

Gert continues to move northward at about 7 kt. The storm is
expected to turn north-northeastward and begin to accelerate
Tuesday ahead of a shortwave trough approaching the northeastern
United States. Like the last cycle, the track guidance continues to
be in excellent agreement, but is generally slower than before.
The new forecast is on the fast side of the guidance, assuming that
Gert is a strong hurricane that stays vertically coherent in the
faster mid/upper-level flow.

Swells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.
These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 31.2N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 32.3N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 34.3N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 36.6N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 39.3N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 46.0N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z 52.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[floridasun78]

other hurr for season we want from none to two

[Hypercane_Kyle]

7-2-0

Not bad totals for August 14.

[Steve]

other hurr for season we want from none to two

So it's 7-2-0 with 1 extra TD?

[Hammy]

FWIW the NAM has 954mb in 24 hours, and yesterday at this time it had 984mb for the 24h forecast (current is 986.) May or may not happen, but it seems to do better north of 30 (while it showed a Cat 3-4 from Hermine in the GoM by contrast) similarly to how the Euro overblows storms north of 25.

[floridasun78]

other hurr for season we want from none to two

So it's 7-2-0 with 1 extra TD?

saying two hurricane

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

May be interesting to see if this system under goes a structural change and sheds the banding over the next 24hrs.

[HurricaneRyan]

The second hurricane of August too.

[Hammy]

Shear looks like it's dramatically increased over the last several hours as there's little to know convection wrapping around the western half of the circulation.

[hurricanehunter69]

Despite it's ragged appearance on visible sat.....Check out how the dark orange turns to white and how fast Gert starts to spin! Very impressive presentation on Mimic this morning http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

quite impressive!

[MississippiWx]

quite impressive!

Beautiful hurricane. Should make a strong push at major hurricane strength.

[GCANE]

Strong rain-rate cell does indicate core heating will continue and further strengthening is likely.

[Kingarabian]

Its made a good comeback and doing a better job at fending off shear. Eyewall still needs to drastically improve in the N/W/S quadrants if it wants to become the first major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

[GCANE]

Some small gravity waves in the layered cirrus after the DMAX towers fired this morning.
A good sign of strengthening.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=8238.5&y=4743.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[GCANE]

Towers continue to fire and layer the CDO with higher cirrus.
Pretty impressive.