ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2017080306, , BEST, 0, 100N, 172W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al772017 to al992017

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118924

[cycloneye]

Model runs here.

[cycloneye]

[TheStormExpert]

00z UKMET still bullish.

[cycloneye]

Repeating this post from the Talking Tropics thread.

06z GFS mure bullish than 00z at 96 hours.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[BobHarlem]

Euro seems to be keeping this one weak and falls apart in the Caribbean. The GFS manages to miss all the Caribbean and Bahamas, but slams a major into Georgia between Brunswick and Savannah then takes the system through the solar eclipse path in much of SC/NC/TN. I'll take the Euro.

[wxman57]

Too early to determine if this might become a Caribbean threat or track north of the Caribbean. GFS says north, then on to the SE U.S. Coast. Not so sure the GFS is handling the flow pattern out ahead of the system well, though. Ridge may be stronger, allowing for a more westerly track. Next week is looking interesting...

[Kingarabian]

Per the models, dry air will be present. How it handles the dry air and how quickly will determine what comes of it.

[cycloneye]

Is too early to say for sure if this system will affect the Leeward and Windward Islands but those who live in those islands keep visiting this thread as all the information will be available.

[tolakram]

Careful with the Euro, the 0Z and 12Z tend to flip flop and I'm not sure why. I would say always take both runs and average the two.

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/893080467188088832



Latest European Ensemble now up to 70% chance of tropical depression development through day 4 with #99L #tropics

[Hypercane_Kyle]

99L's forward motion the next few days will play a significant role in how much it actually develops. The ECMWF is way faster with 99L than the GFS/UKMET.

[Hurricaneman]

This one looks to already have a surface low and definitely needs to be watched in the lesser Antilles but beyond that we will have to keep watching

[JtSmarts]

The real season is upon us, I hope everyone is well rested and ready to track. Potential "Franklin" may be keeping us up for the next two weeks. This is also a good time to make a s2k donation!

[GCANE]

ASCAT has it at 8.5N 20W

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... _over_none

[abajan]

Is too early to say for sure if this system will affect the Leeward and Windward Islands but those who live in those islands keep visiting this thread as all the information will be available.

Thanks. Soon after you created this thread, I informed a local Facebook weather group of which I'm a member, about it.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS takes a Hurricane into Georgia... Note, after landfall the Low continues NW into the SE CONUS and not a quick recurve...

[Alyono]

latest SHIPS output has strong shear in its path. Could be in the 25-30 kt range.

Probably from low level easterlies due to the SAL outbreak. Gulf system development chances may be higher than this one

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL992017 08/03/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 49 56 61 64 65 66 67
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 49 56 61 64 65 66 67
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 39 45 50 53 53 53 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 9 4 1 11 23 20 13 22 25 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 5 7 7 -2 -3 1 4 3 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 25 15 34 56 44 181 55 81 54 330 277 252 231

[srainhoutx]

Use the GFS with a great deal of caution. I am already seeing signs of multiple spurious vortices at 850mb spinning around what that model thinks is a circulation center similar to what we witnessed with Cindy. Convective feedback issues may still plague the new GFS and I agree with wxman57, the ECMWF may have a better handle on the steering pattern in the Medium to Long Range. We will be tracking this tropical disturbance for days.