ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

There was no defined lcc over the previous 24hrs.



I agree that now in realtime this is likely a TC

[Hammy]

Lol its had a llc for days. But as long as some useful data gets recorded..

There's been a LLC but not closed--it seems to have closed off definitively in the last 4-6 hours though. Unless the convection collapses I think this will be upgraded in the next 12 hours.

[StormTracker]

Gert = Big ol' Puffer-Fish! Hopefully New Foundland and the surrounding geography aren't bothered by her either. 1st survivor to make it all the way from Africa! I guess we can say it's "open season" now!

[GCANE]

43 knot gusts at Buoy 41046
23.832N 68.417W

[OuterBanker]

8 PM TWO: 80% / 80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands
have become better organized during the past several hours, and
visible satellite images suggest a low-level circulation may be
forming. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form tonight or Sunday while the system moves northwestward. The
low is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward away from the
United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Ahhh! The Turks and Caicos. Went there for a destination wedding in May. My God what a beautiful place.
Glad it's nowhere near them.

[OuterBanker]

Back on subject. Looks like it should be Gert by 11pm. Think it will bypass td.

[gatorcane]

The GFS insists no development still but looking at the invest I find that hard to believe.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017081300, , BEST, 0, 247N, 697W, 30, 1011, LO

[Nimbus]

The remnants of the upper level low that was north of 99l are now diving SW ahead of the surface low.

Still seems to be a clockwise flow from the North East around the Texas high but if its not the steering layer then it may provide some ventilation or even some shear for Gert later in the forecast.

[emeraldislenc]

Looking better

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is a TC or VERY close. Quite the comeback

[StormTracker]

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.8;-70.8;5&l=rain-3h&m=icon
Yeah looks like by 5:00pm, the LLC wrapped up pretty tight, and now awaiting full consolidation with the MLC.

[RL3AO]

I'm not sure if they'll start advisories at 11pm. Looking better by the hour though.

[Hammy]

They'll probably wait for ASCAT pass (which we should get sometime overnight) before upgrading to confirm there's a closed center and exactly where it's at.

[emeraldislenc]

Will be interesting if they initiate advisories

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The GFS insists no development still but looking at the invest I find that hard to believe

Yeah true its odd, considering we are told the the hwrf is depend with lots of GFS
parts in the modeling.


p
If the HWRF is on the money,this system will be a major. .It already looks TS at the time of this post in real time.

[Kazmit]

If it's upgraded at 11, is it more likely to be a depression or will it go straight to TS Gert?

[1900hurricane]

If it's upgraded at 11, is it more likely to be a depression or will it go straight to TS Gert?

Unless ASCAT or surface obs find otherwise, I think it'll be a depression. Both TAFB and SAB's latest analyses came in at 1.5.

[TheAustinMan]

... and here is the latest ASCAT pass. Circulation on the west side of convection:


Source: http://fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Hammy]

I think this qualifies as at least a TD now, no question.