ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 7:40pm EDT:

[GCANE]

[NDG]

One definite improvement with Franklin this evening is that it finally has a tight core.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092350
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 18 20170809
234030 2014N 09526W 8429 01359 9850 +191 +144 295035 036 052 003 00
234100 2013N 09527W 8426 01366 9852 +191 +142 295041 041 060 004 00
234130 2012N 09528W 8440 01360 9861 +193 +140 296045 046 063 003 00
234200 2011N 09529W 8427 01380 9875 +183 +137 301048 053 060 006 00
234230 2010N 09530W 8432 01385 9895 +165 +134 299054 058 059 006 00
234300 2009N 09532W 8429 01399 9911 +154 +129 299065 068 059 007 03
234330 2008N 09533W 8429 01406 9927 +144 +121 297069 070 056 015 00
234400 2007N 09534W 8429 01418 9939 +138 +114 299069 071 053 022 00
234430 2006N 09535W 8430 01422 9949 +138 +105 297067 069 050 025 00
234500 2005N 09536W 8421 01440 9958 +141 +097 297061 063 046 028 00
234530 2004N 09537W 8430 01438 9970 +139 +091 297061 063 048 032 00
234600 2003N 09538W 8434 01439 9979 +137 +086 300061 062 047 030 00
234630 2002N 09539W 8426 01453 9986 +134 +082 299059 061 041 031 00
234700 2001N 09540W 8431 01456 9994 +132 +078 299058 059 031 039 00
234730 2000N 09541W 8437 01455 9995 +141 +074 301058 059 038 026 00
234800 1959N 09542W 8426 01471 0001 +145 +072 301058 059 041 017 00
234830 1958N 09544W 8427 01474 0006 +142 +072 303057 058 044 013 03
234900 1957N 09545W 8421 01481 0008 +143 +072 312050 058 046 021 00
234930 1956N 09546W 8434 01471 0009 +145 +073 307044 046 048 023 00
235000 1955N 09547W 8430 01477 0011 +144 +075 308047 049 053 020 03
$$
;

[NDG]

They go with 75 knots.

[SouthDadeFish]

The inner-core structure seems much more organized than that found by the previous recon flight. Franklin is still intensifying. In fact, the 30 kt increase between 21Z yesterday and 21Z today would qualify as RI.

Edit: To add, presuming the 00Z best track is 75 kt, that would mean a 35 kt increase from 00Z yesterday to 00Z today.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100000
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 19 20170809
235030 1954N 09548W 8427 01479 0016 +140 +076 305048 050 053 020 03
235100 1953N 09549W 8435 01479 0022 +138 +077 299053 055 056 014 03
235130 1952N 09551W 8431 01484 0022 +140 +077 302057 058 049 011 03
235200 1951N 09552W 8425 01493 0024 +141 +077 298055 058 048 010 00
235230 1950N 09553W 8415 01502 0024 +142 +078 304061 062 045 009 00
235300 1949N 09554W 8440 01476 0030 +131 +079 293065 070 046 014 00
235330 1948N 09555W 8431 01479 0025 +134 +080 298066 070 048 014 03
235400 1947N 09556W 8433 01482 0027 +135 +080 303062 069 047 014 03
235430 1946N 09557W 8430 01487 0033 +131 +080 296065 068 047 015 00
235500 1945N 09558W 8425 01493 0031 +133 +080 297064 067 043 014 03
235530 1944N 09559W 8426 01495 0031 +140 +080 303065 067 043 011 00
235600 1943N 09600W 8436 01490 0034 +139 +082 299064 068 039 008 03
235630 1942N 09601W 8418 01506 0038 +137 +083 298067 068 042 008 00
235700 1941N 09602W 8436 01491 0039 +135 +085 298065 067 038 012 00
235730 1940N 09604W 8426 01499 0040 +133 +087 297065 068 038 013 00
235800 1939N 09605W 8429 01497 0042 +131 +088 298062 064 037 015 00
235830 1938N 09606W 8430 01501 0040 +142 +090 295063 068 037 013 00
235900 1937N 09607W 8428 01509 0046 +139 +091 301063 066 037 009 03
235930 1935N 09607W 8435 01507 0054 +133 +094 297058 064 /// /// 03
000000 1934N 09605W 8424 01513 0050 +135 +096 297054 059 032 008 00
$$
;

[mrbagyo]

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100010
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 20 20170810
000030 1934N 09603W 8436 01497 0047 +134 +098 286050 054 033 007 00
000100 1933N 09601W 8436 01494 0038 +145 +100 280045 052 032 010 00
000130 1933N 09559W 8199 01735 0045 +121 +101 282047 053 032 010 03
000200 1932N 09557W 7873 02080 0042 +109 +100 294059 062 040 012 03
000230 1932N 09555W 7568 02408 0028 +099 +099 296061 063 /// /// 05
000300 1932N 09555W 7568 02408 //// +084 //// 300058 060 /// /// 05
000330 1930N 09550W 7054 02998 0023 +089 //// 305055 058 041 008 01
000400 1929N 09548W 6980 03087 0007 +093 +093 307056 057 041 007 03
000430 1929N 09546W 6966 03104 0013 +092 +092 309057 059 039 007 00
000500 1928N 09543W 6967 03099 0013 +093 +093 304059 060 044 007 00
000530 1927N 09541W 6971 03097 0010 +095 +095 303058 060 043 008 00
000600 1927N 09539W 6964 03110 0017 +096 +096 298061 061 043 006 00
000630 1926N 09537W 6973 03093 0017 +094 //// 298060 061 046 006 01
000700 1925N 09534W 6970 03104 //// +089 //// 295055 061 047 005 01
000730 1924N 09532W 6967 03110 //// +098 //// 295051 053 042 003 01
000800 1924N 09530W 6969 03108 9994 +106 //// 293047 051 041 006 01
000830 1923N 09528W 6968 03114 0017 +103 +103 289047 049 042 008 00
000900 1922N 09526W 6960 03125 0031 +099 +099 287048 050 037 013 03
000930 1922N 09523W 6970 03114 0032 +098 +098 287044 046 038 007 00
001000 1921N 09521W 6958 03128 0013 +101 //// 287040 045 038 006 01
$$
;

[stormreader]

Well, looks like it will definitely reach Cat 2. Don't know, might run out of gulf before Cat 3. Got give him credit. He's giving it everything he's got. If I had to bet, guessing a strong Cat 2 at landfall. About 105-110.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100020
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 21 20170810
001030 1920N 09519W 6969 03116 9992 +105 +105 286038 040 039 005 00
001100 1919N 09517W 6970 03117 0008 +102 //// 287041 042 041 006 01
001130 1919N 09515W 6970 03117 0007 +104 +104 290041 042 042 006 00
001200 1918N 09513W 6967 03123 0023 +100 //// 290042 043 044 007 01
001230 1917N 09511W 6970 03124 0022 +102 +102 287041 043 045 006 00
001300 1917N 09508W 6967 03129 0040 +099 +099 286042 043 045 008 00
001330 1916N 09506W 6967 03131 0044 +097 +097 282043 043 044 009 00
001400 1915N 09504W 6968 03132 0043 +098 +098 280041 043 041 008 00
001430 1915N 09502W 6967 03136 0037 +101 +101 281036 039 042 009 00
001500 1914N 09500W 6967 03139 0062 +096 +096 276031 035 042 009 00
001530 1913N 09458W 6965 03143 0060 +097 +097 281024 029 041 011 00
001600 1913N 09456W 6967 03140 0050 +100 +100 285022 023 042 010 03
001630 1912N 09454W 6969 03142 0049 +101 +101 280023 023 042 010 00
001700 1911N 09452W 6967 03142 0038 +104 +104 284020 022 043 009 00
001730 1911N 09450W 6967 03143 0031 +104 +104 287020 022 042 007 03
001800 1910N 09448W 6968 03144 0044 +102 +102 284018 022 042 007 00
001830 1910N 09446W 6966 03147 0044 +102 //// 286020 021 043 006 01
001900 1909N 09444W 6968 03146 0058 +099 //// 289020 021 043 006 01
001930 1908N 09442W 6967 03149 0063 +099 +099 283020 020 042 007 00
002000 1908N 09440W 6968 03149 0082 +095 +095 275020 021 041 008 00
$$
;

[stormreader]

Great to see the board light up with pure unadulterated enthusiasm for a storm that will come nowhere near 99% of us. Something else!

[Sciencerocks]

This thing will probably peak near 90 knots within my opinion.

If it had more time or was moving northeastward this thing would be a shoe in for major.

[stormreader]

Well, looks like it will definitely reach Cat 2. Don't know, might run out of gulf before Cat 3. Got give him credit. He's giving it everything he's got. If I had to bet, guessing a strong Cat 2 at landfall. About 105-110.

105-110 mph.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100030
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 22 20170810
002030 1907N 09438W 6955 03166 0091 +093 +093 260017 021 041 008 00
002100 1906N 09437W 6972 03150 0095 +091 +091 241011 014 039 010 00
002130 1906N 09435W 6959 03165 0083 +093 +093 227012 014 037 014 00
002200 1905N 09433W 6968 03154 0088 +093 +093 236016 017 036 008 00
002230 1905N 09431W 6963 03164 0096 +092 +092 227014 016 035 011 00
002300 1904N 09429W 6973 03149 0100 +092 +092 215014 018 035 013 00
002330 1903N 09427W 6975 03155 0111 +087 +087 192029 031 036 009 00
002400 1903N 09426W 6963 03169 0102 +085 +085 191033 033 033 008 00
002430 1902N 09424W 6967 03164 0091 +086 //// 192032 034 031 007 01
002500 1902N 09422W 6967 03160 0089 +079 //// 195033 034 028 004 01
002530 1901N 09421W 6970 03162 //// +079 //// 192033 033 027 004 01
002600 1901N 09419W 6966 03168 //// +077 //// 193034 034 025 003 01
002630 1900N 09417W 6967 03172 //// +076 //// 193034 034 025 003 05
002700 1901N 09415W 6966 03176 //// +077 //// 188034 034 /// /// 05
002730 1903N 09416W 6966 03179 //// +078 //// 187032 033 /// /// 05
002800 1903N 09418W 6979 03153 //// +080 //// 189031 032 025 003 01
002830 1904N 09420W 6966 03168 //// +076 //// 187031 032 025 003 01
002900 1905N 09421W 6967 03165 //// +080 //// 183030 032 026 004 01
002930 1907N 09423W 6967 03161 0087 +082 //// 186027 029 030 005 01
003000 1908N 09424W 6966 03165 0087 +084 //// 186026 026 033 006 01
$$

[ScottNAtlanta]

if this builds a core before striking the Yucatan, it may be better news for the heavily populated areas down the line. This is what HWRF is showing. Shows a storm without a core when it comes off of the Yucatan. Thus, it is unable to rapidly intensify

I think once again this proves true. It didnt form a core prior to hitting the Yucatan, and storms that do have a tight core generally struggle after the Yucatan

[zeehag]

nhc saying this will make it across to pacific as a remnant.
what say you folks.
this has been an interesting lil event, our franklin.

[StormChaser75]

[RL3AO]

nhc saying this will make it across to pacific as a remnant.
what say you folks.
this has been an interesting lil event, our franklin.

These systems don't survive the central Mexico mountains. They usually dissipate even faster than expected.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100040
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 23 20170810
003030 1910N 09425W 6966 03160 0095 +083 +083 178023 028 033 015 00
003100 1911N 09427W 6959 03166 0094 +086 +086 184022 024 035 007 00
003130 1912N 09428W 6962 03167 0081 +089 +089 171019 024 037 006 00
003200 1914N 09430W 6967 03159 0078 +086 //// 166016 019 038 006 01
003230 1915N 09431W 6967 03159 0065 +089 +089 174014 016 037 006 00
003300 1916N 09432W 6968 03157 0085 +089 +089 167011 015 038 011 00
003330 1918N 09434W 6967 03152 0086 +092 +092 212007 008 038 011 03
003400 1919N 09435W 6968 03148 0067 +097 +097 224013 014 039 006 00
003430 1920N 09436W 6963 03155 0056 +099 +099 226011 014 039 006 00
003500 1921N 09438W 6982 03134 0078 +095 +095 251020 027 038 014 00
003530 1923N 09439W 6966 03145 0072 +097 +097 260029 030 040 008 00
003600 1924N 09440W 6964 03148 0061 +099 +099 256025 028 039 007 00
003630 1925N 09441W 6968 03140 0047 +102 +102 250020 023 041 007 00
003700 1926N 09443W 6968 03141 0034 +103 +103 247017 019 042 007 03
003730 1927N 09444W 6967 03145 0038 +101 +101 235018 018 042 010 03
003800 1929N 09445W 6968 03141 0032 +100 +100 216017 018 043 009 00
003830 1930N 09447W 6967 03144 0037 +100 +100 206017 019 045 008 00
003900 1931N 09448W 6967 03144 0045 +100 +100 200013 015 046 007 00
003930 1933N 09449W 6968 03143 0053 +098 +098 205008 012 046 009 00
004000 1934N 09451W 6966 03143 0063 +095 +095 211006 008 047 008 00
$$
;