ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1161 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:57 pm

StormSkeptic wrote:While I agree the storm may be on a weakening trend, as the pressure is up, keep in mind that the second pass of recon through the NE quad was at about 10,000 ft instead of 5,000 ft. A recent dropsonde showed the storm is much stronger in the lower levels. The SMFR winds were still in the 75 - 80kt range unflagged on that last pass. They looked suspicious because of the lower flight level winds, but might be real.


I'd say it was 80 kt at 0000Z based on SFMR data then (the peak intensity) and 70-75 kt now.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1162 Postby NotoSans » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:24 pm

Perhaps down to a minimal hurricane or even a high-end TS now as per the latest recon. Central pressure also up to 989mb now.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1163 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:28 pm

looks like 988mb now.

if this would have made landfall 1-2 hours later, it for sure would have weakened to a tropical storm. It's rapidly weakening now
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1164 Postby beoumont » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:41 pm

Historically, a lot of hurricanes track wsw-sw as they approach land in this area of the southwestern BOC. I suppose the orientation of the mountains just inland has something to do with this; and the weakening that also often occurs here in the southwestern BOC as a center approaches landfall.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1165 Postby Craters » Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:00 am

wxman57 wrote:I made a "little" visible loop of Franklin from August 7th-9th with GOES-16 1/2 km resolution imagery from College of DuPage. It's 200mb in size, so give it a bit to load. Here's the link:

http://wxman57.com/images/FranklinLoop.gif


That's just gorgeous, Wxman -- thanks for the effort! That must have taken more than just a little time...

Your loop really shows that feeder band in the northwestern quadrant just going nuts after the Yucatan passage. Fantastic.

I'm old enough to remember the first TIROS pictures of Hurricane Anna when they showed up on page 1 of our newspaper in 1961, and everybody thought that they were nothing short of amazing. Now we have GOES 16. From nothing to GOES 16 within one lifetime. I'm almost speechless.

If anybody's interested, here's a link to an article about the first hurricane observations from space. You can almost feel the reluctance of the author to overinterpret what he's seeing, but he finds the nerve to suggest that tropical cyclones might well originate farther east than the Lesser Antilles!

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/do ... 1&type=pdf

To the mods: Sorry if this strains the limits of the thread. My defense: It's important to understand the history of your subject. (I hope that works.)
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1166 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:21 am

Recon seems to indicate landfall.

Through 1:10am EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1167 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:22 am

Image

Onshore now based on latest recon. Probably 75-80 mph at the time of landfall--we'll know within the next 30 minutes.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1168 Postby beoumont » Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:40 am

Hammy wrote:Image

Onshore now based on latest recon. Probably 75-80 mph at the time of landfall--we'll know within the next 30 minutes.


Those lower pressures north of the wind center (flight level wind center) are interesting. Either they need correction, the center is tilted with height, or the portion of the low level center that made landfall first is filling faster than the northern part that came ashore a bit later.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1169 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:28 am

Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...FRANKLIN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 96.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico south of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos
Bocas
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 96.7 West. Franklin is
moving a little south of west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.
During the past hour, the center of Franklin made landfall in the
Mexican state of Veracruz near the town of Lechuguillas. The center
is expected to move farther inland during the next several hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane moves
farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of
Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo,
Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains
will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of
Campeche through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Mexico during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1170 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:42 am

Remnants Of Franklin Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Surface synoptic data and visible satellite images indicate that
the surface circulation of Franklin has dissipated over
south-central Mexico, not far from Mexico City.

The remnants are moving westward, or about 260/17 kt. A strong mid-
to upper-level high pressure system should continue to steer the
remnants of Franklin generally westward across Mexico today and
tonight. Since the mid-level remnants of Franklin are likely to
survive while moving into the east Pacific by Friday morning, the
system will be monitored for signs of development in that basin.

This is the last advisory on Franklin.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 19.7N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF FRANKLIN
12H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1171 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:10 am

We all have a mixed bag of success. I probably average a C-, but I'm pretty happy with the calls from last week through landfall. I muffed up by figuring that if there was any WSW motion at the end, it would be a gentle arc and not a hook. So I definitely botched that. There's still some punishing rainfall forming along the coast as it appears the remnants have decoupled and split with a piece moving along the spine of whatever the mountains are in Mexico and the lower energy moving toward the Pacific Ocean.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1172 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:32 am

Franklin at peak intensity:

Image
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1173 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:33 pm

Bands starting to refire over the Pacific...
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1174 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:32 pm

not hearing of any major damage or deaths. If confirmed, very uncommon for that area, even for a minimal tropical storm

Perhaps the intense rain cores remained offshore or were sheared apart before landfall
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1175 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:45 pm

Landfall intensity was probably about 65-70 kt, although I am going through the data again. I think perhaps it hit a more sparsely populated area.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1176 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:13 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Here is how I would set the BT for Franklin (UNOFFICIAL):

AL072017, FRANKLIN, 23,
20170806, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 78.4W, 30, 1010,
20170806, 0600, , LO, 14.4N, 79.7W, 30, 1009,
20170806, 1200, , LO, 14.8N, 80.6W, 30, 1009,
20170806, 1800, , LO, 15.4N, 81.5W, 35, 1008,
20170807, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 82.7W, 40, 1006,
20170807, 0600, , TS, 16.6N, 83.8W, 45, 1004,
20170807, 1200, , TS, 17.3N, 84.9W, 45, 1003,
20170807, 1800, , TS, 18.1N, 85.5W, 50, 999,
20170808, 0000, , TS, 18.6N, 86.8W, 55, 995,
20170808, 0330, L, TS, 19.0N, 87.4W, 55, 994, Landfall - Yucatan
20170808, 0600, , TS, 19.2N, 88.0W, 45, 996,
20170808, 1200, , TS, 19.7N, 88.9W, 40, 999,
20170808, 1800, , TS, 19.9N, 90.1W, 40, 998,
20170809, 0000, , TS, 20.1N, 90.9W, 45, 996,
20170809, 0600, , TS, 20.4N, 91.9W, 50, 992,
20170809, 1200, , TS, 20.4N, 93.1W, 60, 988,
20170809, 1800, , HU, 20.5N, 94.4W, 65, 984,
20170810, 0000, , HU, 20.2N, 95.6W, 80, 981, Max wind and min pressure
20170808, 0300, T, HU, 20.1N, 96.3W, 75, 986,
20170808, 0500, L, HU, 20.0N, 96.6W, 65, 988, Landfall - mainland Mexico
20170810, 0600, , TS, 20.0N, 96.8W, 50, 990,
20170810, 1200, , TD, 19.8N, 98.3W, 25, 1000,
20170810, 1800, , DB, 19.7N, 100.0W, 20, 1005, Dissipated as TC
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

#1177 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:51 pm

Looked a Franklin and it has two spins next to each other :double:
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