ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1141 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:43 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100140
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 29 20170810
013030 2133N 09706W 6968 03198 0105 +090 +072 040038 040 /// /// 03
013100 2132N 09704W 6980 03180 0093 +093 +077 039036 037 028 001 03
013130 2130N 09703W 6964 03190 0094 +088 +081 041036 037 027 003 00
013200 2129N 09702W 6969 03186 0119 +074 //// 039035 036 031 006 01
013230 2127N 09701W 6970 03183 0128 +074 +073 034033 035 037 007 00
013300 2125N 09701W 6966 03185 0109 +076 +073 042031 033 037 010 00
013330 2123N 09700W 6965 03186 0117 +074 +073 040035 037 037 009 00
013400 2121N 09659W 6953 03194 0123 +078 +078 030038 040 038 009 00
013430 2120N 09659W 6971 03179 0115 +087 +087 036042 044 037 017 00
013500 2118N 09658W 6973 03179 0111 +093 +093 035040 042 036 010 00
013530 2116N 09657W 6964 03186 0111 +090 //// 041042 043 032 005 01
013600 2114N 09656W 6957 03194 0099 +094 //// 036038 041 029 005 01
013630 2112N 09656W 6970 03174 //// +093 //// 040038 040 029 002 01
013700 2111N 09655W 6967 03179 //// +093 //// 039038 040 028 002 01
013730 2109N 09654W 6967 03177 //// +088 //// 037035 037 024 004 01
013800 2107N 09654W 6967 03178 //// +088 //// 033035 036 024 003 01
013830 2105N 09653W 6968 03179 //// +083 //// 035037 039 025 003 05
013900 2103N 09652W 6967 03173 //// +073 //// 040037 040 027 003 01
013930 2102N 09651W 6968 03170 //// +077 //// 038035 035 027 003 01
014000 2100N 09651W 6967 03172 //// +076 //// 036034 035 028 001 01
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1142 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:54 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100150
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 30 20170810
014030 2058N 09650W 6969 03173 //// +092 //// 034036 037 026 002 01
014100 2058N 09650W 6969 03173 0069 +092 +089 032040 041 027 002 00
014130 2054N 09649W 6970 03165 0063 +095 +084 030041 041 030 001 00
014200 2052N 09648W 6966 03170 0059 +099 +083 032042 043 031 002 00
014230 2051N 09647W 6965 03168 0054 +102 +085 031045 046 031 001 00
014300 2049N 09646W 6974 03159 0057 +099 +087 029045 045 031 002 00
014330 2047N 09646W 6962 03171 0061 +092 +089 027044 045 031 002 01
014400 2045N 09645W 6967 03162 //// +091 //// 026044 045 034 001 01
014430 2043N 09644W 6967 03161 0054 +094 +094 025045 046 035 001 00
014500 2041N 09643W 6969 03159 0049 +096 +095 021046 047 034 002 01
014530 2039N 09643W 6967 03158 0044 +100 +096 019047 047 035 002 00
014600 2037N 09642W 6967 03159 0038 +102 +097 016048 048 036 001 00
014630 2035N 09641W 6967 03152 0031 +106 +099 013048 048 037 001 00
014700 2033N 09640W 6962 03157 0020 +113 +100 011048 049 039 002 00
014730 2031N 09640W 6973 03144 0016 +114 +102 014049 050 039 001 00
014800 2031N 09640W 6973 03144 0016 +111 +104 013051 052 038 002 00
014830 2027N 09638W 6967 03146 0010 +114 +107 009051 051 039 001 00
014900 2025N 09637W 6970 03140 0007 +115 +108 006052 053 040 002 00
014930 2025N 09637W 6970 03140 0001 +117 +110 007055 055 039 002 00
015000 2021N 09636W 6966 03141 0003 +113 +111 006053 055 039 002 01
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1143 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:01 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100200
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 31 20170810
015030 2019N 09635W 6971 03133 //// +110 //// 005050 052 039 002 01
015100 2017N 09634W 6967 03134 //// +110 //// 004050 051 040 002 01
015130 2015N 09633W 6969 03131 //// +106 //// 003049 050 041 002 01
015200 2013N 09633W 6969 03130 //// +105 //// 001049 049 042 001 01
015230 2011N 09632W 6967 03132 //// +102 //// 357049 049 041 002 01
015300 2009N 09631W 6966 03128 //// +105 //// 350050 051 041 003 01
015330 2007N 09630W 6967 03125 //// +102 //// 345052 052 043 002 01
015400 2005N 09629W 6963 03132 //// +096 //// 342052 053 043 002 01
015430 2003N 09629W 6967 03123 //// +094 //// 338055 055 041 003 01
015500 2001N 09628W 6966 03123 //// +094 //// 335056 057 041 003 01
015530 1959N 09627W 6968 03117 //// +094 //// 336058 058 042 003 01
015600 1956N 09626W 6966 03121 0004 +096 //// 332056 057 042 002 01
015630 1954N 09625W 6970 03114 0013 +093 //// 331056 057 044 004 01
015700 1952N 09624W 6968 03119 0018 +088 //// 331056 058 040 006 01
015730 1950N 09624W 6967 03125 //// +085 //// 329050 053 037 002 05
015800 1949N 09622W 6970 03124 0022 +088 +087 331049 049 /// /// 05
015830 1950N 09620W 6967 03122 0006 +098 +087 333047 049 036 006 00
015900 1951N 09619W 6959 03127 0011 +090 +087 331051 052 041 006 00
015930 1952N 09618W 6971 03105 0005 +091 +087 339051 052 039 005 00
020000 1953N 09617W 6965 03109 0003 +088 +087 341052 053 039 004 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1144 Postby beoumont » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:08 pm

A few more enhancements of the eye rapidly appearing.



Link: https://youtu.be/7IdlbBxwjc8
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1145 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:09 pm

Given that the pressure has started to rise, Franklin has likely peaked
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1146 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:14 pm

Don't know if it's already been mentioned, but Mark Sudduth is doing a livestream on Franklin as it approaches the Mexican coast: https://youtu.be/cWbuSwwLclA
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1147 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:25 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image
system has that look its on the grasp of bombing.


if anything, it may weaken slightly. Looks like a touch more shear. Plus, there is some interaction with the mountains already. Not going to get the cat 2 I was thinking earlier. Probably 70-75 kts at landfall
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1148 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:27 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100220
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 33 20170810
021030 2016N 09550W 6970 03026 9853 +137 +128 139030 032 067 006 00
021100 2018N 09549W 6959 03043 //// +125 //// 144037 041 080 003 01
021130 2019N 09548W 6981 03023 9860 +143 +127 126034 041 079 003 00
021200 2020N 09546W 6954 03059 9869 +137 +124 140032 037 079 007 00
021230 2021N 09545W 6972 03045 9876 +137 +123 142040 041 076 008 00
021300 2023N 09544W 6964 03064 9904 +123 +121 148048 050 074 008 00
021330 2024N 09542W 6969 03064 9924 +117 +117 157053 056 062 010 03
021400 2025N 09541W 6968 03074 9915 +123 +117 154049 053 061 010 00
021430 2027N 09539W 6967 03076 9945 +111 //// 165052 055 059 006 01
021500 2028N 09538W 6961 03094 9974 +106 +106 172058 062 059 006 00
021530 2030N 09536W 6974 03091 0028 +094 +094 166064 066 056 010 00
021600 2031N 09535W 6985 03092 0044 +088 +088 156056 063 049 028 00
021630 2032N 09534W 6939 03156 0048 +084 +084 148042 045 052 021 00
021700 2034N 09532W 6985 03107 0061 +080 +080 142042 047 048 017 03
021730 2035N 09531W 6952 03146 0062 +082 +082 122043 046 048 008 00
021800 2036N 09530W 6966 03129 0058 +079 //// 113048 051 049 005 01
021830 2037N 09529W 6971 03130 //// +085 //// 116054 056 048 004 01
021900 2038N 09527W 6966 03134 //// +089 //// 120056 057 046 001 01
021930 2039N 09526W 6968 03136 //// +090 //// 118054 055 044 002 01
022000 2040N 09525W 6967 03140 //// +091 //// 120053 055 043 002 01
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1149 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:38 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100230
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 34 20170810
022030 2042N 09524W 6965 03145 //// +089 //// 123054 056 043 002 05
022100 2043N 09522W 6973 03134 //// +089 //// 121057 059 041 001 01
022130 2044N 09521W 6966 03146 //// +089 //// 121054 058 039 003 01
022200 2045N 09520W 6966 03143 0032 +096 +092 123054 054 036 002 00
022230 2046N 09519W 6965 03148 0032 +096 +091 125054 054 035 002 00
022300 2047N 09518W 6965 03148 0037 +095 +091 125055 056 035 002 00
022330 2048N 09516W 6967 03151 //// +090 //// 126056 056 035 002 01
022400 2050N 09515W 6970 03144 //// +084 //// 125056 056 033 002 01
022430 2051N 09514W 6963 03156 //// +081 //// 125055 055 034 002 01
022500 2052N 09513W 6970 03148 //// +084 //// 126054 055 032 003 01
022530 2053N 09511W 6965 03154 //// +085 //// 125052 054 032 003 01
022600 2054N 09510W 6967 03158 //// +085 //// 126050 051 030 003 01
022630 2055N 09509W 6967 03157 //// +086 //// 128049 050 030 004 01
022700 2057N 09508W 6965 03161 //// +085 //// 132050 051 029 004 01
022730 2058N 09506W 6969 03160 //// +085 //// 134051 051 030 002 01
022800 2059N 09505W 6971 03158 //// +086 //// 133049 051 029 003 01
022830 2100N 09504W 6965 03162 0075 +086 //// 132048 048 029 003 01
022900 2101N 09503W 6964 03168 0076 +084 //// 134050 051 030 003 01
022930 2103N 09501W 6967 03165 0067 +088 +088 138052 054 030 002 00
023000 2104N 09500W 6966 03165 0066 +090 +087 140054 055 029 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1150 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:43 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 100240
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 35 20170810
023030 2105N 09459W 6969 03163 0067 +091 +086 142055 056 026 001 00
023100 2106N 09457W 6963 03173 0065 +093 +085 143054 055 026 001 00
023130 2108N 09456W 6970 03168 0060 +100 +085 138051 053 027 001 00
023200 2109N 09455W 6963 03178 0066 +096 +086 138050 051 028 001 00
023230 2110N 09453W 6966 03175 0071 +093 +086 135050 051 025 001 00
023300 2111N 09452W 6967 03174 0075 +091 +087 136050 050 022 002 00
023330 2113N 09451W 6969 03174 0076 +090 +087 138051 051 025 001 00
023400 2114N 09449W 6968 03173 0077 +090 +087 137052 053 024 001 00
023430 2115N 09448W 6969 03177 0076 +092 +086 135054 055 020 002 00
023500 2116N 09447W 6965 03179 0081 +090 +086 135054 055 022 001 00
023530 2117N 09445W 6965 03183 0077 +093 +086 136053 054 020 002 00
023600 2119N 09444W 6967 03182 0079 +093 +086 139053 054 020 002 00
023630 2120N 09443W 6971 03178 0084 +092 +086 138051 052 025 001 00
023700 2121N 09442W 6963 03191 0085 +095 +086 135049 050 025 001 00
023730 2122N 09440W 6967 03189 0087 +093 +086 131049 049 026 001 00
023800 2123N 09439W 6967 03186 0094 +090 +086 132049 050 023 002 00
023830 2125N 09438W 6967 03189 0093 +090 +085 131051 052 022 001 00
023900 2126N 09436W 6966 03189 0094 +089 +085 131052 053 020 002 00
023930 2127N 09435W 6969 03187 0093 +089 +084 132052 053 024 001 00
024000 2128N 09434W 6967 03189 0097 +087 +083 133053 053 026 002 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1151 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:51 pm

I hope you right Alyono i tend to think the system will keep intensifying all the
way in till landfall.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1152 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:52 pm

may even weaken to 65 kts based upon the latest aircraft data. Last NE quad passage indicated a marginal hurricane at most. Should have been able to tell that was going to happen based upon the microwave pass

Good news from a wind standpoint for Mexico
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1153 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:53 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:I hope you right Alyono i tend to think the system will keep intensifying all the
way in till landfall.



pressure is up 4 mb and the winds have dropped off quite a bit in the northeast quad. I do not think those recent SFMRs of 77 kts are valid as they are slightly more than the usual range between flight level and surface winds
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1154 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:55 pm

Yeah, definitely think it has peaked. That doesn't really change the threat from flash flooding. Still a lot of deep convection occurring with the TC.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1155 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:57 pm

Yeah, microwave imagery does not look as impressive as earlier. Based on that and cirrus motions from IR and WV, northerly shear looks like a good diagnosis.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1156 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:59 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Yeah, definitely think it has peaked. That doesn't really change the threat from flash flooding. Still a lot of deep convection occurring with the TC.


even if this comes in as a tropical storm, the area is still going to have a fairly high death toll from the flooding and mudslides. Hitting at night is not going to help the situation
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1157 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:59 pm

I'd still say hurricane landfall but as of the last recon I'm not so sure
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#1158 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:14 pm

Through 11:00pm EDT:
Image
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1159 Postby StormSkeptic » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:27 pm

While I agree the storm may be on a weakening trend, as the pressure is up, keep in mind that the second pass of recon through the NE quad was at about 10,000 ft instead of 5,000 ft. A recent dropsonde showed the storm is much stronger in the lower levels. The SMFR winds were still in the 75 - 80kt range unflagged on that last pass. They looked suspicious because of the lower flight level winds, but might be real.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1160 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:51 pm

almost onshore now. Maybe 2 hours away at most.

Made a WSW wobble. Not good for Xalapa
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