ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

For the strong tropical wave centered in the eastern Caribbean. Good contender for development in the West Caribbean or Bay of Campeche.

AL, 90, 2017080312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 646W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al712017 to al902017,

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Model runs go in this thread.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A strong tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along
with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for
development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by
early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system
could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba,
Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Alyono]

EC coming in stronger. Has a TD/TS in the Caribbean this run

[tropicwatch]

Might see the new PTC with this one being already in the Caribbean.

[tolakram]

12z Euro

[tolakram]

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is coming in stronger and slightly farther north through 144 hours.

[Blown Away]

Get 90L into the BOC and I'll bet you it gets named!

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is coming in stronger and slightly farther north through 144 hours.

Looks like the Euro has been trending more and more north.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Ridge is coming up progressively weaker on each run.

[tolakram]

Still into Mexico. If the euro still has a left bias I think it's fair to say South Texas needs to keep a very close eye on this.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like landfall is around 987mb on the hi-res. It will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles show this afternoon, definitely need to keep a close eye on this system now.

[RL3AO]

Watch out for increased signs of organization with this one. If it starts to develop sooner than expected (and trend stronger in the models), the more likely S TX is to be impacted.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Watch out for increased signs of organization with this one. If it starts to develop sooner than expected (and trend stronger in the models), the more likely S TX is to be impacted.

Yup, ECMWF showed increased organization before making landfall in the Yucatan, thus showed it going further north as opposed to the 00z ECMWF. This one may be more of a threat to land than 99L ever will be.

[Hurricaneman]

This will probably be a hurricane threat from northern Mexico to Houston which we will narrow down later in the week but it needs to be watched

[stormlover2013]

Mexico to la need to watch this

[Siker]

Pretty huge EPS support, around 35/51 members. Solutions range from southern BoC to Central LA.

[northjaxpro]

The latest EURO run 144 hours out is a bit concerning. The EURO is eroding that ridge at this juncture in time, and if this holds true, anywhere from the Central Gulf Coast to Mexico will need to watch this situation very closely.