WPAC: BANYAN - Tropical Storm

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 120605

A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (BANYAN)

B. 12/0530Z

C. 19.39N

D. 165.07E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. LG eye in B surrounded LG yields T4.0 with -1.0 eye adjustment. MET AND PT YIELD 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0314Z 19.22N 165.45E SSMI
12/0412Z 19.28N 165.28E SSMS


LOWE

There's a clear eye here.

[euro6208]

New peak 85 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING AN 112216Z GMI PASS, AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA, INCLUDING AN 112259Z ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIX VALUES AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA. TS 14W IS TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD THE
BASE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE
CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND HIGH ALONG-TRACK HEAT
CONTENT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 14W IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST INTENSITIES IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
B. TS 14W WILL TURN POLEWARD AND APPROACH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TAU 72, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH A
SECOND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND THROUGH A SUPPORTIVE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A STEADY TREND, INTENSIFICATION ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED BY BEGIN BY TAU 72 AS TS 14W INTERACTS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND TROUGH.
C. TS 14W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES AFTER TAU 24 AS EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE SHARPNESS AND
SPEED OF THE POLEWARD AND EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURNS DIFFERENTLY.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

JMA is up to a severe tropical storm.

STS 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 12 August 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 12 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°30' (19.5°)
E164°55' (164.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 12 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°10' (21.2°)
E163°40' (163.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 13 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°35' (22.6°)
E163°25' (163.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°40' (25.7°)
E163°55' (163.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 15 August>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N31°05' (31.1°)
E164°35' (164.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Eye emerging.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TS 14W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS EVIDENCED BY
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN A 120412Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 120314Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THESE IMAGES AS WELL AS ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL
OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT TO THE EAST. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN
HAS SPURRED THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE AND INCREASE IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT TO 55 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES/RJTD AND A
120409Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 56 KNOTS. TS 14W IS TURNING POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TOWARD THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 14W IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE.
B. TS 14W WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH A SECOND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND THROUGH A SUPPORTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A STEADY TREND, INTENSIFICATION ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED BY BEGIN BY TAU 72 AS TS 14W INTERACTS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND TROUGH.
C. TS 14W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES AFTER TAU 24 AS EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE SHARPNESS AND
SPEED OF THE POLEWARD AND EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURNS DIFFERENTLY.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

HWRF explodes this big time. GFS down to 967 mb while EURO is non existent.

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 121240
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 14W (BANYAN)

B. 12/0830Z

C. 19.6N

D. 165.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON 0731Z SSMIS
DATA, WHICH SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS SE OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. 8/10 BANDING
RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET OF 3.5 IS BASED ON STANDARD DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS AND WAS ADJUSTED UP TO 4.0 WHEN DERIVING THE PT. FT
IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/0731Z 19.5N 165.1E SSMIS


...TURK

TPPN10 PGTW 121210

A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (BANYAN)

B. 12/1140Z

C. 19.98N

D. 164.69E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .95 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT YIELD 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[euro6208]

14W BANYAN 170812 1200 20.0N 164.7E WPAC 60 992

[mrbagyo]

Pretty sure agencies will upgrade to Typhoon status on their next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

a small and powerful comma!

[NotoSans]

The agencies surely need to catch up with their intensity estimates.

[HURAKAN]

solid eyewall

[1900hurricane]

Yep, bombing out right now.

[1900hurricane]

Banyan is now analyzed as a lower-end typhoon by JTWC and JMA.

14W BANYAN 170812 1800 20.5N 164.4E WPAC 75 982

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 12 August 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 12 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30' (20.5°)
E164°20' (164.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°40' (21.7°)
E163°35' (163.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 13 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40' (22.7°)
E163°20' (163.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 14 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°00' (26.0°)
E162°55' (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 15 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°05' (31.1°)
E163°40' (163.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 460 km (250 NM)

[WAcyclone]

I really love these Himawari 8 Band 3 sunrise images of strong Typhoons.

[euro6208]

Forecast to peak at 110 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS
A COMPACT RING OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A NEWLY FORMED
10NM EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
MULTI-
AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO
90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST FEEDING INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST, AND A POINT-SOURCE ANALYZED
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO VERY LOW
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT, AND TY 14W IS TRACKING OVER VERY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY 14W IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W WILL TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. WARM SSTS WILL PERSIST WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36 AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
INTRODUCING OUTFLOW RESISTANCE AND HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. AROUND TAU 48 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ERODING THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EVENTUALLY
THE
TROUGH WILL CAPTURE TY 14W BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 14W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TS BANYAN SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY,
BUT THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY,
THERE IS OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Thread title needs an update.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 AUG 2017 Time : 201000 UTC
Lat : 20:40:08 N Lon : 164:23:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 963.8mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.2 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -38.2C Cloud Region Temp : -68.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.9 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

HWRF still quite intense peak.