EPAC: JOVA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Remnants of Franklin. Models are on and off.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is located about 160 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the
system continue to become better organized, and a tropical
depression could be forming. Any additional increase in
organization would result in the issuance of advisories today or
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[zeehag]

this brat is almost immediately overhead. i HOPE it is to dissipate. i am stormed out since pattybaby.
watching this n potential next one closely due to my vulnerable position in mazatlan marinas.

[tolakram]

Big storm, really sticks out in the sat loop.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=7260&y=7588&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Sanibel]

The overcast coming down from the US west coast in that loop is over cool water.

[Kingarabian]

11/1800 UTC 19.3N 108.2W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The mid-level remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin moved across
Mexico during the past day or so and induced a surface circulation
early this morning near the southwest coast of Mexico. While earlier
it was difficult to see a well-defined center, satellite images
suggest that the multiple swirls seen in visible imagery during
midday have consolidated, with enough convection remaining to
classify the system as a tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is
35 kt based on data from ship WDF4764 and a central pressure
estimate of 1003 mb, making this system the tenth tropical storm of
the season. Although this is the first tropical storm to form in
the basin in about 3 weeks, the eastern Pacific is still way ahead
of schedule since the average tenth tropical storm forms on August
31.

Jova is over very warm water but is moderately sheared from the
northeast due to the large high over Mexico. The storm has about a
day to potentially intensify before a combination of cooler waters
and increasing northeasterly shear likely start a weakening trend.
Most of guidance respond to this environment by showing little
change tomorrow, and a slow weakening starting by Sunday. Jova is
forecast to become a remnant low by Monday due to marginal water
temperatures and continued entrainment of dry stable air. The
official forecast is close to a blend of SHIPS/LGEM in the short
term, and the intensity consensus in the long term.

The initial motion is 285/12. A mid-level ridge building westward
across the eastern Pacific should cause Jova to turn westward by
late tomorrow, and continue that general motion until dissipation.
Model guidance is in pretty good agreement for a first advisory, so
the official forecast is close to the model consensus.

Note that since advisories were not continuous from the Atlantic
basin to the Pacific basin, the cyclone is given a new eastern
Pacific name, per WMO RA-IV operational protocols.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 19.3N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 19.7N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 19.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 20.1N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 20.3N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Sciencerocks]

Appears that the Mexican mountains done a sex change on Franklin and now he is Jova. lol Won't have much time before it enters cooler waters.

[zeehag]

as this red blob sits over us here in mazatlan i can feel it intensify some. the main opart is over cabo corrientes where many intensify, and the cell over us is wet with electrical storm activity.
as this heads out to sea it is giving us a lil gift of weatheriness. gusts are growing in intensity.
just get her away frok mazatlan before i s a cane . feels like patricia

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

First-light visible imagery from the experimental GOES-16 satellite
revealed that the circulation of Jova is very disorganized. The
cyclone is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an upper-level
high centered over northwestern Mexico. Since the convective
organization hasn't changed significantly since the last advisory,
the intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data.

There is no indication that the 20-25 kt of northeasterly shear
currently affecting the tropical storm will decrease enough to
allow for any intensification during the next day or so. After
about 24 h, Jova will move into an environment of lower SSTs and
drier mid- to upper-level air, which should contribute to gradual
weakening. The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models suggest that deep
convection will cease in about 48 h, so the forecast shows Jova
becoming a remnant low at that time.

The center was relocated to the north by about 30 n mi based on the
first-light visible imagery. As a result, the NHC forecast track
has been shifted northward, especially for the first 48 h. Aside
from the initial position uncertainty, there is fairly good
agreement among the models that a mid-level ridge extending from
northern Mexico across most of the tropical eastern North Pacific
will cause Jova to turn westward within the next 12-24 hours. Jova
should then continue moving steadily westward along the southern
periphery of the ridge until eventual dissipation around or just
after 96 h. The official forecast is basically an average of the
GFS and ECMWF models, which only differ in how quickly Jova
initially turns toward the west.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 20.6N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 20.7N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z 20.7N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[NDG]

Lots of easterly shear over Franklin's remnants (Jova)
Good indication that the EPAC will not be that active this month after all as shown earlier by the modesl, IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Lots of easterly shear over Franklin's remnants (Jova)
Good indication that the EPAC will not be that active this month after all as shown earlier by the modesl, IMO.

Bulk of that shear is @ 20N SW of Baja California where conditions are more often than not, not ideal for development. Models have development further south and more west. Models are in excellent agreement in that there will be a bunch of low pressure areas spread out in the EPac within the next couple of days. So naturally the chances of another hurricane forming are pretty high.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The convective structure of Jova is practically non-existent. Deep
convection is limited to a small burst southwest of the center.
A pair of ASCAT passes at 1638 UTC and 1732 UTC showed maximum
winds of around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 30 kt, making Jova a tropical depression.

Even though the vertical wind shear is still very high, the rapid
decline of convection is a little surprising to me since the SSTs
beneath the circulation are above 28 deg C, and the tropical cyclone
is embedded within an environment of high total precipitable water
and moderate mid-level moisture. Given those environmental factors,
the NHC forecast assumes that Jova will regain at least a little
convection and maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 h.
However, if current trends continue, the depression could become a
remnant low sooner than indicated. After about 24 h, the cyclone
should gradually spin down while moving over cooler SSTs and into a
drier environment.

Since the center of circulation is completely exposed, the motion
is now a far more certain 280/12 kt. No significant changes have
been made to the NHC track forecast, and the depression, or its
remnants, should continue moving steadily westward, steered by a
mid-level ridge to the north until eventual dissipation in 3 or 4
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 20.4N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 20.9N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z 20.9N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1800Z 20.4N 127.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[NDG]

Lots of easterly shear over Franklin's remnants (Jova)
Good indication that the EPAC will not be that active this month after all as shown earlier by the modesl, IMO.

Bulk of that shear is @ 20N SW of Baja California where conditions are more often than not, not ideal for development. Models have development further south and more west. Models are in excellent agreement in that there will be a bunch of low pressure areas spread out in the EPac within the next couple of days. So naturally the chances of another hurricane forming are pretty high.

A lot of shear over most of the basin. The GFS has been doing horrible also over EPAC, if it would had been as correct by Tuesday morning there would had been a major hurricane south of MX.
12z Euro has back away from earlier runs, with easterly shear continuing over most of the Basin.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has very light shear across the EPac day 3 to day 10.

[Yellow Evan]

this was never gonna be anything more than 35-40 knots to begin with.

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Jova lacks sufficient deep convection to be classified as a
tropical cyclone, so the system is being designated as a remnant
low. Although the low may produce sporadic bursts of deep
convection over the next day or two, the dry and stable environment
should prevent the system from coming back. Based on the ECMWF
model prediction, the remnant low should dissipate after 72 hours,
if not sooner.

The low is moving westward or 270/12 kt. A mainly easterly
low-level environmental flow should move the system on a westward to
west-southwestward track until dissipation. The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one.

This is the last advisory on Jova. For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 20.5N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 14/1200Z 20.2N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0000Z 19.9N 123.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 19.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch