ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:57 am

AL, 91, 2017081306, , BEST, 0, 135N, 181W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al742017 to al912017

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118957
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:14 am

Already has a pretty good circulation.
West winds reported at Bissau and earlier at Cap-Skirring on the coast.



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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:16 am

Fairly far north so the odds of being recurved by our savior TUTT are high?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:17 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:20 am

Pretty darn impressive for holding up as it jumps into the water.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby abajan » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:31 am

According to the TWO, the areas indicated are expected to merge.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:47 am

Yesterday's GFS 00Z run did show two 700mb Lagrangian OW's (aka Pouches) merging.

http://96.127.43.56/global.php?m=gfs&p= ... =atl&dpdt=

Have not seen today's run yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby tiger_deF » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:53 am

Unlike 99L this invest has actually held together upon contact with the water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:56 am

tiger_deF wrote:Unlike 99L this invest has actually held together upon contact with the water.


Exactly, most of the times they don't.
When they do, they usually are a player down the road.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:31 am

8 AM TWO

A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge
with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:57 am

One of the biggest MCS's I have ever seen cross the coast.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:49 am

12z Best Track: A Ship reported just under the low.

AL, 91, 2017081312, , BEST, 0, 134N, 197W, 25, 1010, DB

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:02 am

I know its very early and this is just emerging off the Africa coast, but I have a bad vibe about this invest. The models are all over this system, and the next 10 days or so are potentially shaping up to be very interesting to say the least. Hoping it will harmlessly turn out to sea, but we are a long way off to determine what will happen with this system. This invest looks very impressive this morning and it appears this wave is not going to collapse as others have done because of SAL so far this season.

We have lots of time to watch it, but we are now entering the meat of the season and the MDR is beginning to crank up for sure!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:08 am

Yeah, ridging appears to be stronger for this one, so the East Coast might not be as lucky with this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:09 am

northjaxpro wrote:I know its very early and this is just emerging off the Africa coast, but I have a bad vibe about this invest. The models are all over this system, and the next 10 days or so are potentially shaping up to be very interesting to say the least. Hoping it will harmlessly turn out to sea, but we are a long way off to determine what will happen with this system. This invest looks very impressive this morning and it appears this wave is not going to collapse as others have due to SAL so far this season.

We have lots of time to watch it, but we are now entering the meat of the season and the MDR is beginning to crank up for sure!



With Euro ensembles showing a hurricane in the Gulf, that's enough to keep a very close eye on this invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:12 am

I'm thinking this one is going to develop within a week. Probably not as fast as GFS shows but I think it'll be a long tracker.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:16 am

Ivanhater wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I know its very early and this is just emerging off the Africa coast, but I have a bad vibe about this invest. The models are all over this system, and the next 10 days or so are potentially shaping up to be very interesting to say the least. Hoping it will harmlessly turn out to sea, but we are a long way off to determine what will happen with this system. This invest looks very impressive this morning and it appears this wave is not going to collapse as others have due to SAL so far this season.

We have lots of time to watch it, but we are now entering the meat of the season and the MDR is beginning to crank up for sure!



With Euro ensembles showing a hurricane in the Gulf is enough to keep a very close eye on this invest


Yeah, Ivanhater, I peeked at the EURO a short time ago. Yeah, the EURO and GFS are both providing early long range clues that the Bermuda ridge may be much stronger than it has been so far this summer. EURO emsembles are hinting at pushing this system in the GOM, and the GFS is showing a landfall on the SE U.S. Coast by 8/23. It is long range of course, but these early clues do not look promising to say the least. In fact, they look quite troubling. But, long time to monitor this, and changes will come of course. Interesting days ahead for sure....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:19 am

The large wave ahead of 91L helped to push the SAL out of the way, should help in development at least in the short term but I am sure it will struggle later on as the Euro shows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:21 am

northjaxpro wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I know its very early and this is just emerging off the Africa coast, but I have a bad vibe about this invest. The models are all over this system, and the next 10 days or so are potentially shaping up to be very interesting to say the least. Hoping it will harmlessly turn out to sea, but we are a long way off to determine what will happen with this system. This invest looks very impressive this morning and it appears this wave is not going to collapse as others have due to SAL so far this season.

We have lots of time to watch it, but we are now entering the meat of the season and the MDR is beginning to crank up for sure!



With Euro ensembles showing a hurricane in the Gulf is enough to keep a very close eye on this invest


Yeah, Ivanhater, I peeked at the EURO a short time ago. Yeah, the EURO and GFS are both providing early long range clues that the Bermuda ridge may be much stronger than it has been so far this summer. EURO emsembles are hinting at pushing this system in the GOM, and the GFS is showing a landfall on the SE U.S. Coast by 8/23. It is long range of course, but these early clues do not look promising to say the least. In fact, they look quite troubling. But, long time to monitor this, and changes will come of course. Interesting days ahead for sure....


Great points jax,

This may be our first storm of the season with long nights of model watching :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:25 am

@RyanMaue
Invest 91L definitely a possible U.S. mainland problem but more than 10 days down the road. Would be "Harvey" ... westward track concern.




https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/896723754277113856
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