ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[emeraldislenc]

So we could have two invests? What is the distance between the two

[GeneratorPower]

There is a massive amount of moisture between the two waves combined.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is
along 19W/20W from 09N-21N. A 1010 mb low pres is analyzed along
the wave axis near 13.5N19.5W. A cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is within about 180 nm west quadrant of low
center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N-16N
between 17W-23W. The low is forecast to move westward over the
next couple of days and merge with a broad area of low pressure
located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
of this system later this week while it moves westward at about
10-15 kt over the tropical Atlantic. Currently, there is a medium
chance for tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.

[floridasun78]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL Tropics -- long range (next weekend and beyond):
The National Hurricane Center indicates a 30 percent chance of
tropical cyclone development over the next five days in the deep
tropical Atlantic between the Caribbean and the Cabo Verde
Islands. Given the expected flow pattern over the next week, any
impacts to the US mainland appears to be beyond the current seven
day forecast period. Experience tells us that at this time range
the forecast models will often change greatly from run to run, so
it`s far too early to speculate on where this potential system
will track, or even whether it will significantly develop at all.
It`s just a reminder we are entering the heart of hurricane season
and it`s always a good idea this time of year to review and
freshen up your supply kits and plans. For more information on how
to prepare for the hurricane season, visit http://www.ready.gov on the

[bamajammer4eva]

If one of these affects land they could do so during the Eclipse. Not sure how this is important unless it would affect the tides??

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... 5779a0345a

[RL3AO]

If one of these affects land they could do so during the Eclipse. Not sure how this is important unless it would affect the tides??

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... 5779a0345a

It wouldn't impact the storm. It would just be a cool satellite image to see the moon's shadow crossing a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

The 18z surface analysis has the low pressure for this invest but so far,there is no low for wave at 35w.

[jlauderdal]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL Tropics -- long range (next weekend and beyond):
The National Hurricane Center indicates a 30 percent chance of
tropical cyclone development over the next five days in the deep
tropical Atlantic between the Caribbean and the Cabo Verde
Islands. Given the expected flow pattern over the next week, any
impacts to the US mainland appears to be beyond the current seven
day forecast period. Experience tells us that at this time range
the forecast models will often change greatly from run to run, so
it`s far too early to speculate on where this potential system
will track, or even whether it will significantly develop at all.
It`s just a reminder we are entering the heart of hurricane season
and it`s always a good idea this time of year to review and
freshen up your supply kits and plans. For more information on how
to prepare for the hurricane season, visit http://www.ready.gov on the

jlauderdal free august tips: start your generators everyone, this is the time to make sure they run and get them serviced if needed before all the other yahoos realize their generators don't work and you have one bearing down.,you are going to start them anyway so might as well it do it now..make sure you have plenty of oil, takes more than gas to run these things, spare spark plug is a good idea

happy hurricane hunting next 2 1/2 months

[abajan]

If one of these affects land they could do so during the Eclipse. Not sure how this is important unless it would affect the tides??

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... 5779a0345a

It wouldn't impact the storm. It would just be a cool satellite image to see the moon's shadow crossing a hurricane.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but while it's true the eclipse wouldn't impact the storm (at least, not noticeably), according to my research, the alignment of the sun, moon and earth would cause a spring tide, and it seems to me that that would amplify any storm surges if they were to occur simultaneously.

[RL3AO]

If one of these affects land they could do so during the Eclipse. Not sure how this is important unless it would affect the tides??

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... 5779a0345a

It wouldn't impact the storm. It would just be a cool satellite image to see the moon's shadow crossing a hurricane.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but while it's true the eclipse wouldn't impact the storm (at least, not noticeably), according to my research, the alignment of the sun, moon and earth would cause a spring tide, and it seems to me that that would amplify any storm surges if they were to occur simultaneously.

That would be true. But there is no way this system would be impacting the US in 8 days. Some impact from the Caribbean in possible during the new moon though.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO 10%-40%

A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[floridasun78]

so one by 35 going marry 91l? so one by 35 going slow down?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Definitely watching this one with a careful eye.

[emeraldislenc]

Me too the H storms can be tough

[cycloneye]

The 00z Best Track has been delayed and that means they are adjusting it more west in longitudes to then have one system to track.

[Blown Away]

The 00z Best Track has been delayed and that means they are adjusting it more west in longitudes to then have one system to track.

Will the adjustment lean towards a more southerly or recurve track long term?

[caneseddy]

The 00z Best Track has been delayed and that means they are adjusting it more west in longitudes to then have one system to track.

Will the adjustment lean towards a more southerly or recurve track long term?

Most likely more southerly since that is what the Euro, Canadian and UKMET have been mostly hinting at, particularly the Euro.GFS is taking the easternmost blob as the main vorticity which is why it shoots out more northerly

This is not an official forecast..consult with NHC

[cycloneye]

You can see the two areas here.What Best Track was following is almost without convection while the western one looks much more convective.

.

[floridasun78]

look at area by 14 n 35 west look good banding that area now this look big mess i call it super tropical wave go from Africa to 45 w not sure were nhc put x at 2am or 8am this now active part season [peoplfew weeks ago was calling cancel season it show time

[AubreyStorm]

Up 50%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge during the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart