ATL: HARVEY - Models

[sphelps8681]

Not looking good for SW Louisiana.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

On the model that would be a Cat 1. Not good for SW La or East Tx.

No that would still only be a TS

Unless the Saffir Simpson scale is wrong it shows >980. The model shows 999.?

[sphelps8681]

On the model that would be a Cat 1. Not good for SW La or East Tx.

No that would still only be a TS

Unless the Saffir Simpson scale is wrong it shows >980. The model shows 999.?

I do see that is not quite on east tx or sw la at that time.

[sphelps8681]

No that would still only be a TS

Unless the Saffir Simpson scale is wrong it shows >980. The model shows 999.?

I do see that as it moves toward east tx and sw la it is 999 mb. Not saying that is what it will be if it does what the model is potentially showing.

[stormreader]

12Z GFS offshore at 24 hours, some deepening at 48 hours. This is east of last run.

Starting to come in line with what the Euro has been saying for 48 hours or so. Not good. More deep moisture to draw on. Continued terrible for Houston, but I think also, flooding may become an issue for SW La., particularly the Lake Charles area, if this forecast materializes.

[sphelps8681]

12Z GFS offshore at 24 hours, some deepening at 48 hours. This is east of last run.

Starting to come in line with what the Euro has been saying for 48 hours or so. Not good. More deep moisture to draw on. Continued terrible for Houston, but I think also, flooding may become an issue for SW La., particularly the Lake Charles area, if this forecast materializes.

I believe you said it would make a second landfall on/near Tx/La border.

[forecasterjack]

Nearly ECMWF 12Z time! Watch it come in in full resolution for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 0000z.html you can use menus to the left of the image to toggle parameters and forecast times.

[BRweather]

GFS 12z ensembles way further east.

Looks like most of them dropped the west turn

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082712/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init

[BRweather]

Nobody mentioned it, but the 00z ECMWF Control run had a landfall right at the TX/LA border. Way further east.

[tolakram]

[stormreader]

12Z GFS offshore at 24 hours, some deepening at 48 hours. This is east of last run.

Starting to come in line with what the Euro has been saying for 48 hours or so. Not good. More deep moisture to draw on. Continued terrible for Houston, but I think also, flooding may become an issue for SW La., particularly the Lake Charles area, if this forecast materializes.

I believe you said it would make a second landfall on/near Tx/La border.

Well, several days before landfall at Rockport, I said I thought that the storm would skirt the Texas coast and make its primary landfall between Galveston and Sabine Pass (Tex-La border). It may still work its way toward the extreme upper Texas coast, but that would be the secondary landfall.

[tolakram]

The euro has the same issue the GFS has, jumping the LLC around. It may reform in the gulf rather than smoothly move.

[Jagno]

As a resident of SW Louisiana I don't like these drawings. Go back and draw a better one please.

[tolakram]

997mb in the gulf south of Houston at 60 hours.

[stormreader]

The euro has the same issue the GFS has, jumping the LLC around. It may reform in the gulf rather than smoothly move.

Going to state the obvious, but if it is over the Gulf at 999mb, with a spread out, but well established cyclonic rotation, you could still see a Cat 1 out of this. Especially, if I'm reading correctly, that it might have 3 days over coastal waters before moving onto mainland again. Maybe someone could check for me, is that right? Low pressure center maybe just coming even with north gulf coast on Fri???

[tolakram]

Back onshore 66 hours, 994mb, ~ 35kt winds.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

38kt surface winds (via Weatherbell). Main issue, again, is flooding east of the storm.

[stormreader]

As a resident of SW Louisiana I don't like these drawings. Go back and draw a better one please.

Don't blame you. As it stands now, the core has sort of been hollowed out of the storm. Still a very well established cyclonic rotation, though. If models verify, than with center just off Texas coast, more moisture to draw on, the bulk of the precip would be established further north and east of the center than a more tightly wound and developing system. Now if storm reorganizes some in Gulf, it should bring some of that moisture back in more tightly around center, but with a secondary landfall somewhere near Galveston, and then moving north, the Lake Charles area, might still catch as much of that moisture as anyone. And as I look at radar, you guys are catching your "fair share" right now.