ATL: HARVEY - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Weatherbell Euro plots showing Harvey continuing to rotate in counter clockwise loops.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[stormreader]

Well Euro holds it about current pressure (997) at second landfall. Lets see if that verifies. I think its conservative, but we'll see.

[stormreader]

With everything going on, we haven't talked about possibility of serious flooding from Harvey remnants further down the line over the continent. Perhaps as it nears the Appalachians or merges with another system. Haven't seen any models referring to what happens to Harvey that far down the pike. We know historically that storms can often be huge rainmakers a thousand miles from the coast.

[sphelps8681]

Where that eye comes a shore just clips the southern part of Lumberton.

[lrak]

This isn't as active as the other thread and we finally got power at my place. Posting to from my phone. Is CCTX out of danger from Harvey? CCTX In some areas no powe my vacation spot Port Aransas flattened. My true prayers for Houston friends and some family. Can't reach them they live in Baytown. Thank you Storm2K

[artist]

This isn't as active as the other thread and we finally got power at my place. Posting to from my phone. Is CCTX out of danger from Harvey? CCTX In some areas no powe my vacation spot Port Aransas flattened. My true prayers for Houston friends and some family. Can't reach them they live in Baytown. Thank you Storm2K

So good to hear you are ok. Hope you can hear from your family soon.

[pledger28]

This board has been extremely helpful. Do any of you expect strengthening before landfall?

[Exalt]

This board has been extremely helpful. Do any of you expect strengthening before landfall?

I can't guarantee anything but I could almost 100% say this won't become a hurricane again. 2.5 days or so over the Gulf, sure, but this thing IMHO has been struggling to stay out of extratropical transition while stalling out over TX. Maybe back up to 60mph if it's lucky, I can't say for sure, I'm no pro, but it's for Texas' safety that this thing doesn't re-intensify much further.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS 993MB this run. Lowest it's shown in quite a few runs



Edit Canadian is 994MB same time frame

[Steve]

It's weighted SE whereas NAM is weighted west. Harvey moves on about that time but keeps funneling rain on the NAM. From 7pm tonight through 7am Wed looks like down coast from Galveston and north side of Houston takes the brunt on the NAM.

[bamajammer4eva]

Now that Harvey has weakened so much, are the NAMs and HRRR a little more credible?

[Steve]

Now that Harvey has weakened so much, are the NAMs and HRRR a little more credible?

Complicated problem. NAM has been somewhat credible since the Yucatán. Pretty much all the models have had their moments. I think it led in the way in showing extreme intensification. Some of the runs have had good tracks as well. Don't bet on it though. Best just to watch it for input.

[pledger28]

This board has been extremely helpful. Do any of you expect strengthening before landfall?

I can't guarantee anything but I could almost 100% say this won't become a hurricane again. 2.5 days or so over the Gulf, sure, but this thing IMHO has been struggling to stay out of extratropical transition while stalling out over TX. Maybe back up to 60mph if it's lucky, I can't say for sure, I'm no pro, but it's for Texas' safety that this thing doesn't re-intensify much further.

I'm just north of Beaumont. We are all hoping for no further development.

[BRweather]

The 04z HRRR does something a little unexpected. From hour 15 to hour 18 it goes from the LA coast line to back off shore.

Things keep getting weirder.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017082904/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

[stormreader]

GFS 993MB this run. Lowest it's shown in quite a few runs



Edit Canadian is 994MB same time frame

But I tend to agree with the lowering of pressure shown in these runs. Yesterday I said that I could see this as a strong tropical storm of 65 mph or so upon second landfall. I think those model runs are along those lines. Storm structure (wind field) very well established, Any lowering of pressure is going to, I think, substantially increase those wind speeds to about strong tropical storm force.

[sphelps8681]

Hope the NAM 3KM does not verify. It looks as though it goes stationary over Tx/La for over a day. Is this a good model?

[OntarioEggplant]

Is anyone else seeing a new tropical low/storm thing on the GFS bringing even more rain to Houston in 7-10 days? It's had it for the past couple of runs.