ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

Sorry haven't been keeping up- how so??

Just this morning the GFS ensemble members were grouped mostly west, now they are east. It means the GFS is coming into line with the other models.

Not liking the trends tonight for Louisiana either. Tomorrow could be a rough day around here as well as SE Texas.

Yeah. Crazy juice hitting these cells tonight. Unreal. And y'all are in that threat area. Cameron Parish all the way over to Terrebonne needs to look out for tornadoes and flash floods. It was always probably going to be Monday on for whatever LA was going to get. We should see some bands here and there. Last I checked a few to several inches possible. Be safe.

[Steve]

NAM 32km is out to 54 hours and is pretty much back where it is now. Houston, and The Triangle look to be hit almost nonstop on that run for 2 and a half more days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=67

[Steve]

Even worse, 12km through 57 hours dumps another 20+ on Houston. I hope it's wrong and not even possible.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=309

Edit to say the 3km loops offshore and back and then offshore at the end. There is a jump in the run. Bad news all around for SE Texas on the NAM runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=169

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Just this morning the GFS ensemble members were grouped mostly west, now they are east. It means the GFS is coming into line with the other models.

Not liking the trends tonight for Louisiana either. Tomorrow could be a rough day around here as well as SE Texas.

Yeah. Crazy juice hitting these cells tonight. Unreal. And y'all are in that threat area. Cameron Parish all the way over to Terrebonne needs to look out for tornadoes and flash floods. It was always probably going to be Monday on for whatever LA was going to get. We should see some bands here and there. Last I checked a few to several inches possible. Be safe.

This girl got no place to go .. so I'm staying home.. we 8ft at my mom's.. only thing to knock us down would be tornados.. got generator, food, and water.. we've been ready.. Houma floods during afternoon rains. I'm staying home im montegut.. as long as there is no surge, we should be fine. If not, we got boats in the front yard.

Updated rain totals for Terrebonne is 8"-10"

[sphelps8681]

NAM 32km is out to 54 hours and is pretty much back where it is now. Houston, and The Triangle look to be hit almost nonstop on that run for 2 and a half more days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=67

Looks like a lot of rain. We have been on and of rain since yesterday. Today have been getting stronger bands more frequently.

[Steve]

Be safe!

Final on NAM 12 and 32km runs is that Harvey is lifting out over Houston around 80 hours. That's about 3 and a half days. If those are right close to 2 feet more of rain will fall across most of SE Texas between now and Thursday midday. Like I said, I hope NAM is off. If it's not, we will likely never see anything close to this happen again (which we won't anyway). And Harvey is on its way to the all time lists.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Latest rgem is painting a pretty ugly picture over sw, sc, and even parts of se la including new Orleans. Showing 48hr totals of upwards of 10+ inches of rain. Also has Harvey south of the state line still in the gulf.

[Steve]

GFS 24 hours so valid 7pm tomorrow rains 6+ inches across most of Houston. Center is along the shore.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2&ypos=357

At 36 hours feet of rain are filling in beginning at the coast. That's what the NAM did. Caution.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=269

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not much difference through 72hrs compared to 18z. Maybe a tad slower and touch further south but in same general area.

[BRweather]

Not much difference through 72hrs compared to 18z. Maybe a tad slower and touch further south but in same general area.

Yes but it is showing more convergence over Louisiana. I have a feeling rainfall totals are going to end up higher than expected.

[Steve]

GFS at 84 has a big 2' swath across SE TX but Harvey is lifting north of Houston. It's a bit farther west than NAMs. Seeing 8-10" here on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3&ypos=342

[Steve]

Canadian at 30 concentrates the most rain at the Sabine River.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=2

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...

...CATASTROPHIC...HISTORIC FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS
THE UPPER TX COAST...

...HEAVIEST RAINFALL EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
SEWD TOWARD A POSITION OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL UNFORTUNATELY HELP PLACE AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF HARVEY IN THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE POSITION OF
STG FEEDER BAND INTERACTION WITH MODEST CYCLONIC SELY FLOW HELPING
TO MAINTAIN STG TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MSTR INTO THE UPPER TX COAST
EWD INTO SRN LA. IN ADDITION..NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEAK BAROCLINIC BNDRY ACRS THE
NORTHERN GULF..EFFECTIVELY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THAT VERY IMPRESSIVE PW MSTR FEED EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA. UPSHOT OF THIS IS
THAT ANOTHER DAY OF COPIOUS TROPICAL RAINS IS EXPECTED WITH AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES LIKELY THAT WILL IMPACT SOME OF
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RECORD SETTING RAINS AND
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO..INCLUDING THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA AND EXTENDING EWD INTO SW LA. THESE AMOUNTS
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SERIOUS FLOOD SITUATION ACROSS THE UPPER
TX COAST REGION AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOOD ISSUES FARTHER
EAST ACROSS SW LA. MANUAL QPF LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM
CONEST AND WRF ARW ALONG WITH CONTINUITY WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TO
CONTINUITY WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS QPF ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM GIVEN SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THERE.

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS

[tolakram]

GFS looks to have come around to the eastern solution, and now stronger than the euro.

[tolakram]

Euro has moved further east.

[tolakram]

GFS precip shows continued rain for Houston along with more concern east, especially New Orleans.

[stormreader]

Euro has moved further east.

Yes. Secondary landfall over Port Arthur-Sabine Pass (Tex-La border).

[Michele B]

Latest COAMPS

if it tracks this way, LA gets the wettest and nastiest stuff from the "new" Harvey regeneration.

Any predictions been made for rainfall totals over NOLA?

[tolakram]

Euro 12z init