ATL: HARVEY - Models

[cycloneye]

Models runs here.

The idea of the model thread is a place to hold saved model graphics (no direct image links please) and discussions or questions pertaining directly to a model run. One liners, random thoughts, and other posts will be removed to try and keep these threads strictly on topic and more useful in the future when looking back at a storm and model performance. Please understand that the desire is not to squash conversation but to keep these threads very technical in nature. If you have doubts about a post then the discussion thread is probably the best place to put it.

Thanks for your cooperation.

Discussion thread for non-model posts: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118961

Model Archive GIFs
GFS 00Z Aug 13: http://i.imgur.com/jVKfNO9.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 13: http://i.imgur.com/jVd6jfw.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 13: http://i.imgur.com/3sLAShk.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 13: http://i.imgur.com/43vAmJw.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/3XMULs1.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/R9Vb8op.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/KiiAjyP.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/BlHrqpe.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/2dyZ6xQ.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/2aBdxih.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/yN6br6o.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/P2PkfbA.gif

ECMWF 00Z Aug 13: http://i.imgur.com/OOw0nII.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 13: http://i.imgur.com/LHQKSGv.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/RVtQ3KV.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/klw1Uq9.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/2d4eiAv.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/VCTK5fO.gif

[GCANE]

COAMPS has this spending the next day or two coalescing LL convergence and TPW SW of CV islands.
Enthalpy forecast shows an increase in convection around Wednesday 40W.
At this point, it looks like a strong wave all the way into the northern portion of the east Carib.

[cycloneye]

[Steve H.]

Early morning snippet from the Melbourne FL NWS FWIW:

While there is a pretty robust signal in the operational models for
a Cabo Verde type tropical cyclone to be moving WNW near of north of
the Greater Antilles early next week (the day 8-10 time frame), it`s
important to note that global model solutions beyond days 5-7 will
frequently show large changes in subsequent runs. There will be many
days to watch and see if these solutions come anywhere close to
fruition. Mid to late August is always a good time for Floridians to
review their hurricane plans and make sure their kits are up to date.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS after it moves thru MDR and just north of Puerto Rico,Hispanola and Bahamas makes landfall in the Carolinas.But is long range so stay tuned for changes.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS once again begins with the two vorts.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the models are hinting at stronger Western Atlantic ridging in the long-range when just yesterday they were showing not much ridging. Just goes to show you can't make any definitive statements on where this might go if it develops in the long-range.

[ronjon]

Euro has a tropical storm near S FL at the end of its run. It delays development until the western atlantic, perhaps leading to a more southern solution.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017081300&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=378

[Kingarabian]

EPS currently has only 5 members showing development.

[gatorcane]

Euro has a tropical storm near S FL at the end of its run. It delays development until the western atlantic, perhaps leading to a more southern solution.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017081300&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=378

The 06Z GFS ensembles that just ran have significant shifted more south. Posting one week below but the rest of the run is more south also.

[weathaguyry]

Very interesting that the usually very conservative JMA model develops this a little bit

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[WAcyclone]

EPS currently has only 5 members showing development.

While that might be true in the short term (east of the Lesser Antilles), there seems to be some support at day 10 and beyond in the 00z. Especially compared to previous EPS runs. I counted at least 14 members showing development of 91L at 240 hours with 6 of them showing hurricanes (#15, #26, #31, #35, #45, #49) and 2 showing major hurricanes. However, the signal increases quite a bit after 10 days with lots of ensemble members showing major hurricane impacts for the Gulf coast and/or the Florida peninsula. This is a wave to watch IMO...

[blp]

UKmet is onboard now. So we got good consensus from the models.

[cycloneye]

UKmet is onboard now. So we got good consensus from the models.

Hi my friend. Do you have the graphic or Text?

[Siker]

EPS currently has only 5 members showing development.

Within what range? I'm counting ~15 by the time this is around the Gulf.

[Siker]

UKmet is onboard now. So we got good consensus from the models.

Hi my friend. Do you have the graphic or Text?

From the Talkin Tropics thread:

[Ivanhater]

Euro ensembles bringing a hurricane into the Gulf is enough to keep a very close eye on this invest

[GCANE]

Today's 00Z GFS run for Pouch development and tracking.

http://96.127.43.56/global.php?m=gfs&p= ... atl&pp=&y=

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Model guidance.