ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282008
AF308 0110A INVEST HDOB 29 20170828
195930 3123N 08100W 9812 00241 0087 +227 +219 358025 027 020 002 00
200000 3121N 08101W 9775 00275 0089 +222 +218 353027 028 020 003 00
200030 3120N 08102W 9826 00232 0089 +220 +218 348030 031 021 002 00
200100 3118N 08103W 9850 00210 0090 +220 +217 344030 030 022 001 00
200130 3117N 08104W 9842 00217 0091 +219 +217 342028 029 018 003 00
200200 3116N 08106W 9824 00234 //// +216 //// 341027 028 016 003 01
200230 3114N 08107W 9822 00239 0094 +215 +214 338026 027 016 002 00
200300 3113N 08108W 9828 00232 0094 +215 +212 336025 025 015 003 00
200330 3112N 08109W 9816 00244 0095 +212 +210 338024 025 014 002 00
200400 3110N 08110W 9812 00249 0096 +210 +208 336024 025 016 001 00
200430 3109N 08111W 9818 00242 0097 +210 +206 336024 025 016 001 00
200500 3108N 08112W 9825 00239 0097 +210 +204 337024 025 014 002 00
200530 3106N 08113W 9826 00236 0098 +210 +202 339024 025 014 002 00
200600 3105N 08114W 9790 00268 0097 +208 +201 339024 025 015 001 00
200630 3103N 08115W 9625 00413 //// +196 //// 346025 025 016 001 05
200700 3102N 08116W 9230 00776 //// +190 //// 345014 024 /// /// 05
200730 3100N 08117W 8731 01255 //// +176 //// 283012 014 /// /// 05
200800 3059N 08118W 8303 01687 //// +159 //// 261017 019 /// /// 05
200830 3058N 08120W 7942 02066 //// +150 //// 258017 019 /// /// 05
200900 3058N 08122W 7675 02359 //// +139 //// 257014 016 007 002 05
$$
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY
ORGANIZED...
...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has been flying through the
disturbance and so far the aircraft data depicts a sharp
trough with a few spots of tropical-storm-force winds east of the
trough axis. The overall cloud pattern has not become any better
organized, and most of the weather is located in bands well to the
northeast and southeast of the trough. With the shear increasing,
the chances for the system to become a tropical storm are
diminishing, but if it does occur it should happen within the next
24 hours or so while the system moves near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina. Regardless of whether tropical cyclone formation
occurs, tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning
area in North Carolina. Beyond 24 hours, the system should acquire
extratropical characteristics. However, the exact timing of the
transition is uncertain since the cyclone will still be moving over
warm waters.

In reality, we can not track a center of circulation that does not
exist and NHC is following an area of minimum pressure. This makes
the initial motion highly uncertain and the best estimate is toward
the northeast or 040 degrees at 10 kt. The system is already
embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a
trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the
northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 32.2N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0600Z 33.4N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 29/1800Z 35.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z 43.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 51.6N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

[OuterBanker]

Alas, looks like 92L will never become Irma. We have tropical storm warnings, yet no tropical storm.
We will probably experience tropical storm conditions and flooding rains. But no name.

Kinda reminds me of Sandy. Hurricane warnings never were issued for NY or NJ yet they had hurricane conditions.

Maybe TWC can give it a name.

[TheStormExpert]

Can we add 92L to the list along with 99L of banned invest tags?

[joey]

Notice broward and dade got flood watches agan they expect some banding to form from ptc 10. Or something else Thanks

[Vdogg]

So, I guess we're just looking at a strong Noreaster now? Hope people don't let their guard down, we've been through some Noreasters here that would put a tropical storm to shame. Looks like this will primarily be a wind event, with not as much rain. Probably still have some tidal flooding though. Still have high wind watches up, which will probably turn to warnings later. They're expecting 35 to 45 miles an hour sustained winds with gusts to 60. It'll still be a decent storm.

[forecasterjack]

My thoughts on PTC10...
Not going to be a TS or TD. It is and it will be a baroclinic cyclone with fronts and thermal gradients. Can see it in ECMWF model guidance very clearly.

Baroclinic temp profile image: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/80 ... 0000z.html
Fronts: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/80 ... 0000z.html

nevertheless, impacts remain the same. Heavy rain, TS force winds, high surf.

[seahawkjd]

This is one where you wish they'd give it a name just to cap off watching it for over 3 weeks. The invest that could that isn't going to cause many problems (I hope).

[Happy Pelican]

Thankfully, the rip current and rough seas risk is being taken very seriously (at least) along my area of the Jersey Shore. Ocean looks like a wash machine and most beaches are red flagged. Given this is the last big vacation week of summer, the beaches will be packed with inexperienced swimmers.

[Vdogg]

That convection is really firing now. Definitely not tropical, but this may be a bigger rain event than is currently predicted.

[seahawkjd]

Most of the school systems here are now on a 2 hour delay for tomorrow. I guess they want to make sure its going to be dangerous before they cancel the second day of school.

[johngaltfla]

This is one where you wish they'd give it a name just to cap off watching it for over 3 weeks. The invest that could that isn't going to cause many problems (I hope).

Amen. After one of my smart aleck neighbors taking a bass boat down our street yesterday just to take pictures, I'm done with this storm. It can go fish!

[caneman]

This is one where you wish they'd give it a name just to cap off watching it for over 3 weeks. The invest that could that isn't going to cause many problems (I hope).

Amen. After one of my smart aleck neighbors taking a bass boat down our street yesterday just to take pictures, I'm done with this storm. It can go fish!

Amen, it's been sitting off our coast for a week. The flooding we're having would likely be all the news if not for Harvey.

[TheStormExpert]

This is one where you wish they'd give it a name just to cap off watching it for over 3 weeks. The invest that could that isn't going to cause many problems (I hope).

Amen. After one of my smart aleck neighbors taking a bass boat down our street yesterday just to take pictures, I'm done with this storm. It can go fish!

Amen, it's been sitting off our coast for a week. The flooding we're having would likely be all the news if not for Harvey.

I really wish they would've just upped this to AT LEAST TD status. 92L was likely Tropical Depression at least one point in its life.

[weathaguyry]

If this becomes extratropical without ever getting a name, will they stop issuing advisories?

[RL3AO]

If this becomes extratropical without ever getting a name, will they stop issuing advisories?

Yes.

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Although the disturbance continues to produce a fairly large area
of deep convection, this activity is far from the estimated center
and the circulation remains poorly defined. Surface observations and
radar data suggest that the circulation of the system is stretched
from north-northeast to south-southwest, and the position used in
this advisory is near the estimated minimum pressure location. The
initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier aircraft data
and a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Since the system does not have a clear center, the initial motion
is an uncertain 020/6 kt. A faster northeastward motion is
expected to begin overnight or early Tuesday as a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to the
system. The NHC forecast track takes the disturbance across the
South Carolina and North Carolina coastline overnight and on
Tuesday. By late Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast to move offshore
and accelerate over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind
shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this
disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing.
Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-force winds
and heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas are likely
tonight and on Tuesday even if the system does not become a tropical
cyclone. The system is expected to become post-tropical in about 24
hours when it interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level
trough. Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is
forecast for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 to 120 h are
based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 32.5N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 36.9N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 39.0N 69.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0000Z 43.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 48.5N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 53.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[King-6]

If it's 40 mph, why isn't it named yet???

[Blinhart]

If it's 40 mph, why isn't it named yet???

no closed center of circulation, and it might never get one.

[weathaguyry]

Track actually bumped left a bit, may bring more rain, gusty winds, rip currents, high surf, etc. to the Northeast Coast