ATL: TEN - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If nothing else a lot of rain.

[hd44]

Ehhh may not go out to sea after all.

[Bocadude85]

0Z UKMET starts development of the East coast of Florida and goes out to sea.

[painkillerr]

A group of friends are beginning a motorcycle ride from Orlando to Key West on Thursday. Should they scrap it?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Boca,

How close to the coast does it get before heading out and how far south.

[Happy Pelican]

The CMC has a storm right around 40N 55ishW on its latest run. A few days ago, it looked to me as if (for what it's worth and I'm pretty daft about this stuff) the Canadian model is definitely picking up something out in the Atlantic that may keep 92L from turning and heading OTS and at point had 92L going straight up the coast, smack into the D.C. Area. It's since trended more East with each run but it's still showing something to the East of 92l that could prevent a clean run and keep it on the coast as a TS or TD.

Im really interested in this crazy theory of mine and how it play out.

I'll go back in "worthless contribution time out" corner now.

[hd44]

Heads out to sea after this.

[Hammy]

GFS finally has a more realistic solution given this will be interacting with a frontal system.

[blp]

This is at least the 8th run in a row where the GFS has developed a separate system from 92L coming straight up from the cuban coast along the SE Florida coast, which ejects a little to the NE and then stalls in the western atlantic. Note that the trend in the stall has been further south and west, which is concerning only in the fact that the further south it stalls the harder its going to be to get picked up and permanently ejected out.

Agree all the models are trending south and west could get stuck on next set of runs

[chaser1]

Gotta love the CMC! First have this developing as it comes into Miami. Then, pushes into the extreme SE Gulf and while deepening, menaces Sarasota/Tampa area. Not through by a long shot, it darts across the state again and emerges around Melbourne where it really starts to crank offshore and finally moves dangerously close to the Outer Banks and just offshore the U.S. Coastline with a final waive to Nova Scotia. In terms of surf and beach erosion, this really looks to share the love.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Gotta love the CMC! First have this developing as it comes into Miami. Then, pushes into the extreme SE Gulf and while deepening, menaces Sarasota/Tampa area. Not through by a long shot, it darts across the state again and emerges around Melbourne where it really starts to crank offshore and finally moves dangerously close to the Outer Banks and just offshore the U.S. Coastline with a final waive to Nova Scotia. In terms of surf and beach erosion, this really looks to share the love.

Reminds me of our ole classic GFS. I've gotten too used to this "kind/gentle" one that we currently have.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF performed very well with this invest I must say. Fortunately it was not a situation like Gert where the GFS in particular just could not pick up on development for some reason even in the very short-range. We were all pretty nervous about that but looks like not much at all to be nervous about. The models also ended up doing well with Harvey. Perhaps these models are back on track to being the normally reliable models we are used to which is good to know as we head into the peak of this year's season.

[NotSparta]

Gotta love the CMC! First have this developing as it comes into Miami. Then, pushes into the extreme SE Gulf and while deepening, menaces Sarasota/Tampa area. Not through by a long shot, it darts across the state again and emerges around Melbourne where it really starts to crank offshore and finally moves dangerously close to the Outer Banks and just offshore the U.S. Coastline with a final waive to Nova Scotia. In terms of surf and beach erosion, this really looks to share the love.

CMC runs are always full of doom

[gatorcane]

12Z guidance is rather confusing:

[Frank P]

all look pretty much clueless at the time... hard to even figure out an average to that mess...

[tgenius]

Well the other thing to consider is that the models may be right, i.e. the "center" will pass there, but with the disorganization the rain may be further north or south of the "center"?

[Steve]

The GFS and ECMWF performed very well with this invest I must say. Fortunately it was not a situation like Gert where the GFS in particular just could not pick up on development for some reason even in the very short-range. We were all pretty nervous about that but looks like not much at all to be nervous about. The models also ended up doing well with Harvey. Perhaps these models are back on track to being the normally reliable models we are used to which is good to know as we head into the peak of this year's season.

We'll see if they come around to development late in the week or if there's just some stretched out energy. I think they've been poor though neither developed it by this point and nothing has developed. CMC always had a dive down across the islands or stall and did sense that days ago. I don't know if it happens south of Florida, gets caught in the pattern in the Atlantic or whatever. But it's the only one that has consistently brought something out of this pattern since 92L was classified. None of the Big 3 have been any good though you would expect the EC and GFS to come around to what is going to happen since we're now within a few days of whatever is going to happen.

[sfwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
354 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.DISCUSSION..
Fri-Sun...Exact forecast details into the weekend become less
certain with the evolution of a digging mid latitude trough along
the southeast Atlantic seaboard and the medium potential for
tropical development near FL early in the weekend per latest
Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC. ECMWF develops low pressure
associated with the mid latitude trough while GFS indicates
potential low pressure development near or east of the old tropical
wave that will linger near the area into late week. Both scenarios
show high moisture levels across the area with low pressure moving
away to the northeast through the latter part of the weekend.
Main concern at this point will be the potential for locally heavy
rain with scattered to numerous showers/storms Friday and
Saturday before rain chances lower to scattered range Sunday with
lowering of deep moisture across the area and developing low level
onshore flow from the northeast. Highs in the upper 80s to around
90 and lows in the 70s for the upcoming weekend.


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Lascody
LONG TERM....Volkmer

[OuterBanker]

Southern vort seems to be going through the DR chipper.

[alienstorm]

Southern vort seems to be going through the DR chipper.

It's north of DR, but the inflow is being disrupted by the mountains once it clears we will inflow again. 12z GFS @72 hours has it coming up from the Cuban coast FWIW.