ATL: TEN - Models

[jlauderdal]

Southern vort seems to be going through the DR chipper.

yep, lots of nasty around the mona passage for tropical systems

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS now with the strongest vorticity coming up off the north Coast of Cuba into SW FL Peninsula traveling northward up the spine. A western trend before the north turn, if it goes any further west before that turn it could very well stay over extreme SE GOM SST's and have a shot at TC genesis IMO.

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS now with the strongest vorticity coming up off the north Coast of Cuba into SW FL Peninsula traveling northward up the spine. A western trend before the north turn, if it goes any further west before that turn it could very well stay over extreme SE GOM SST's and have a shot at TC genesis IMO.

gfs likes that southern vortex, nhc opened up the eastern gulf possibility in their two, will see...lots of work to do for this system to be anything more than a rain maker

[SouthFLTropics]

Today's 12z Euro keeps a mild vorticity across Florida and then slingshots it back across the state and begins to develop it North of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, on another topic, take a look at what the Euro does with Harvey!!!

[pgoss11]

Today's 12z Euro keeps a mild vorticity across Florida and then slingshots it back across the state and begins to develop it North of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, on another topic, take a look at what the Euro does with Harvey!!!

Wow! Didn't expect that with Harvey! How I love hurricane season!

[Christiana]

That 12Z ECMWF for 8/30 frame, sitting over our area, passing by on it's tour of the Gulf Coast and lingering on and into the day following the anniversary of Katrina? That's not funny. Not even a little bit. We are oversaturated here and any sort of intense prolonged rainmaker would not be good along the MS Coast or in pump challenged NOLA. Glad this is so far out, makes it less likely to happen. We seriously need to dry out here.

[SouthFLTropics]

Gotta give credit where credit is due. The GFS and the Euro picked up on the non development of 92L very well. Even when we thought it had all things going for it the best models in the world knew better. The northern vorticity just barfed out a big outflow boundary and at this time the whole system looks pretty ragged and poor. It had the potential but in the end it's just a busted up tropical wave. Now as soon as I post this watch it blow up convection and start forming...

[Steve]

Gotta give credit where credit is due. The GFS and the Euro picked up on the non development of 92L very well. Even when we thought it had all things going for it the best models in the world knew better. The northern vorticity just barfed out a big outflow boundary and at this time the whole system looks pretty ragged and poor. It had the potential but in the end it's just a busted up tropical wave. Now as soon as I post this watch it blow up convection and start forming...

Haha. But you're going to have to wait a few days regardless. It's likely to be around in some form or another until the end of the week when maybe something pops out on the East Coast. No way this is dead (yet).

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Maybe it's just an illusion on my part, but looking at Harvey is it possible that a small amount of convection from him gets tangled up with what ever comes from 92 L near the SE fla area.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS likes the Southern vorticity by Friday at 18z

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep, same spot as the 12z CMC. Both models have it hanging out off ECFL for a couple of days.

[sma10]

Ay-yi-yay, the 18z will be great for Florida and Texas Ark salesmen.

[Emmett_Brown]

Maybe it's just an illusion on my part, but looking at Harvey is it possible that a small amount of convection from him gets tangled up with what ever comes from 92 L near the SE fla area.

Well, Harvey's cloud shield and outflow certainly are getting large. I would think the impact on 92L would be to inhibit development if he gets much bigger. Although he is moving along to the WNW pretty briskly, so perhaps there is still enough space for 92L to still find favorable conditions in the next couple of days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS likes the Southern vorticity by Friday at 18z

Looks to close off low on coast in the 18z...thats new compared to well north of the Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS likes the Southern vorticity by Friday at 18z

Looks to close off low on coast in the 18z...thats new compared to well north of the Bahamas.

Yep, right in our backyard DESTRUCTION5

[AdamFirst]

GFS likes the Southern vorticity by Friday at 18z

Looks to close off low on coast in the 18z...thats new compared to well north of the Bahamas.

Yep, right in our backyard DESTRUCTION5

Better prepare the pontoon boats...although I'm heading up to see my mom in Melbourne on Thursday. Hopefully it's nothing too serious.

[SFLcane]

One thing to watch for is if 92L crosses over Florida into the GOM and then hooks back over the state.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS rainfall totals through 18z this coming Sunday

[SouthFLTropics]

By this weekend the GFS and the Euro both try to spin something up off of East Central Florida.

[hd44]

Development chances increasing once again with the 92l... which is starting to remind me of the joker storm. It wont go away lol.