WPAC: HATO - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#21 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 19, 2017 4:42 pm

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/899021169793286144




Looks like there is some confusion with the previous 93W.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#22 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 19, 2017 4:44 pm

Image

TD
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 19 August 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 19 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°20' (18.3°)
E130°10' (130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°35' (19.6°)
E128°25' (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°20' (20.3°)
E126°20' (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:11 pm

15W FIFTEEN 170819 1200 20.0N 130.3E WPAC 20 1008

15W is here.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 15W

#24 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:15 pm

JTWC first warning for 15W...

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 15W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:26 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS CURRENTLY OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 202201Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25-30 KNOTS)
AND IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), AND STRONG OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TD 15W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM AND ESTABLISHES THE
FORECAST REASONING.
B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO STEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AROUND TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING
TD 15W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN GRADUALLY
DIVERGING THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH CHINA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
STR. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY DISSIPATING DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NAN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA,
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TD 15W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
CHINA, HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AT LANDFALL AND
INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 15W

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:29 pm

That JTWC position looks way off. JMA looks much closer to me at 00Z.

TD
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 20 August 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 20 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°05' (19.1°)
E129°35' (129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°50' (19.8°)
E127°35' (127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°20' (20.3°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)


Image
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Aug 20, 2017 2:51 am

We now have Tropical Storm "Hato"...

Image
TS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 20 August 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 20 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°50' (19.8°)
E128°05' (128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:45 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINES UP WELL
WITH LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE 200514Z ATMS AND
200602Z AMSU-B MICROWAVES IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TD 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48,
IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN, THEN CROSS THE TAIWAN
STRAIT BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA JUST BEFORE TAU 72. DESPITE LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN, THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL INTO CHINA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 15W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD. THIS, PLUS THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION FOLLOWING THE REPOSITIONING LEND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:47 am

TPPN10 PGTW 200920

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (NE OF LUZON)

B. 20/0900Z

C. 20.85N

D. 127.46E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/20HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/0514Z 20.52N 128.95E ATMS
20/0602Z 20.63N 128.47E MMHS


LEMBKE

TXPQ27 KNES 200905
TCSWNP

A. 15W (HATO)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 20.9N

D. 127.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS
RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0732Z 20.8N 127.8E SSMIS


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:00 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:24 am

While the other models continues to show a TS at best. GFS strengthens Hato to 969 mb as it misses Taiwan into near Hong Kong.

Image
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:34 am

Peak and landfall. Down from the 00Z run which had a 950's Major Typhoon strength.

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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:31 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:06 am

Now up to 35 knots 1 min.

15W FIFTEEN 170820 1200 21.1N 126.6E WPAC 35 996
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:11 am

I don't know if my eyes are deceiving me but is that an eye? Sorry i just woke up. :lol:

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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:56 am

Easterly shear appears to be pushing the convection well ahead of the circulation center.

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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:59 am

:uarrow: yes, your eyes are just deceiving you. The feature is not an eye - that's just a gap in the convection


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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:40 am

Bullseye ASCAT pass over TS Hato just after 12z today...

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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby StormChaser75 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:46 am

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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sun Aug 20, 2017 3:08 pm

Seems like models are somewhat struggling right now...Two major paths, one heading towards east Hong Kong the other one goes to west Guang Dong.

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