WPAC: HATO - Post-Tropical

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Cunxi Huang
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sun Aug 20, 2017 3:37 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.1N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.2N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.7N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.1N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 124.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
//
NNNN


Image
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Image

70 knots landfall peak.

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD SATELLITE FIXES
AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM BOTH A 201310Z METOP-A MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND A 201311Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE THAT ALL SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT LOCATION FOR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS 15W IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE TRACK
WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT AND INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. TS 15W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48 NORTH OF HONG
KONG. DUE TO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK FORECAST WITH GFS AND HWRF GENERATING A MORE WESTWARD
TRACKING SOLUTION AND NAVGEM PRODUCING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAT
TAKES THE SYSTEM ACROSS TAIWAN. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A WESTERN TRACK BY TAU 96. THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE WILL BE AN EXTENSION OF THE SAME
STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OCCURRING BY TAU 96. THE
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THERE BEING A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE,
LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:34 pm

This might come down to be re-run of Roke of 2017, but with the strength of Nida of 2016.
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I am an Indonesian who likes TC's alot recently. May i join in the discussion? Also i am big FAN of FORCE THIRTEEN! :D

But thanks to it please beware of my judgement if i am crusading these names to retirement (Like Harvey, Haitang, etc.). That could be incredibly offensive and please remove my posts if it's offensive as i said before. Ugh... :double:

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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:49 pm

Moderate-strong northeasterly shear still impacting Hato...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:51 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
05A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 202216Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE
UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). ALSO, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY
STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 15W IS TRACKING
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITION, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE TRACK
WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT, WELL SOUTH OF TAIWAN,
AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS HATO WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 48, TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF HONG KONG. DUE TO A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UNFAVORABLE VWS, THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT EXPERIENCES THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
BROUGHT ON BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD WITH NAVGEM TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE SAME STR. DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THERE BEING A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 96. DUE TO THE SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER LAND, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:26 am

Tropical Storm Hato approaching the Luzon Strait, still as a sheared system...

Taiwan's NTU buoys recorded a wind speed up to 55.76 kph (15.49 m/s) and a minimum Sea-Level Pressure near 992.5 hPa @ 12z (8pm Taiwan/PH time) as Hato passes nearby...

Image
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:04 pm

Image
that's some powerful displaced convection.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:12 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD
OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED LOOSELY ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN
A 211826Z 85GHZ SSMI IMAGE SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. A PREVIOUS 211250Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE CONFIRMS A REGION OF HIGHER WINDS (4O KNOTS) ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AS THE FLOW IS FUNNELED THROUGH THE LUZON
STRAIT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM INFLUENCING THE STRONG
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INTRODUCING
MODERATE WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. SSTS
IN THE REGION ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM, NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY
TS 15W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA BUILDS LINKING THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. SSTS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE DUE TO MODERATE VWS. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FUNNELING
TROUGH THE LUZON AND TAIWAN STRAITS FEEDS INTO THE LOWER-LEVEL
CYCLONE. LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU
36. TS 15W WILL TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD GROUPING IN THE FORECASTED
TRAJECTORY, WITH A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE AMBIGUITY OF
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:15 pm

Image

Center passing north of Luzon.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:22 pm

EURO and GFS still gunning for Hong Kong.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:25 pm

Basco in the Northern part of Luzon reported 989.9 mb during its passage.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:52 pm

Image

Idk if it's just me but it looks like the LLCC has caught up with the convection(or maybe it's the vice versa - shear relaxed), kinda appears vertically stacked now with that spiraling western rainband.

If JTWC's track materialize, HK could be in deep trouble.
Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:14 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND WEAK BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN
A 212248Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED
ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM INFLUENCING THE STRONG
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INTRODUCING
MODERATE WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. SSTS
IN THE REGION ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM, NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY
TS 15W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA BUILDS LINKING THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. SSTS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE DUE TO MODERATE VWS. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FUNNELING
TROUGH THE LUZON AND TAIWAN STRAITS FEEDS INTO THE LOWER-LEVEL
CYCLONE. LANDFALL JUST WEST OF HONG KONG IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU
30. TS 15W WILL TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD GROUPING IN THE FORECASTED
TRAJECTORY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:15 pm

TXPQ27 KNES 220311
TCSWNP

A. 15W (HATO)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 20.3N

D. 120.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY LLCC LOCATED GREATER THAN 1/3DEG
INTO DG. DT=3.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/2248Z 20.5N 120.0E SSMIS


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:20 pm

Image

Eye feature starting to develop.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby NotoSans » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:25 am

Possibly the strongest typhoon to affect HK since Typhoon Ellen back in 1983 if the solutions from the global models materialize. HK certainty needs to watch it out...
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:42 am

NotoSans wrote:Possibly the strongest typhoon to affect HK since Typhoon Ellen back in 1983 if the solutions from the global models materialize. HK certainty needs to watch it out...


I'm smelling a Signal Number 10 in your location.
Unlike Vicente (a very close call), Hato's circulation is actually huge.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:52 am

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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:23 am

This storm is rapidly intensifying , nice small eye popping up on rgb imagery.
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Re: WPAC: HATO - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:32 am

hd44 wrote:This storm is rapidly intensifying , nice small eye popping up on rgb imagery.


the eye is not really small but it's indeed intensifying rapidly.

Image
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