WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby NotoSans » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:23 pm

Model guidance has shifted eastward and is now predicting a landfall near the western part of the Pearl River Delta. Definitely not good news for Macau which is still struggling to recover.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:06 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED OVER LUZON. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SAT FIXES,
AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LAND INTERACTION
COUPLED WITH A WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE STRUCTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING MSLP VALUES OF 997 MB ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY DESPITE
REPORTING LOWER WIND SPEEDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A POLEWARD CHANNEL
FEEDING INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS ALSO
VERY LOW. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SOMETIME IN
THE NEXT SIX HOURS. TS 15W WILL RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE
SCS AND REINTENSIFY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AS
THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES WESTWARD ALONG WITH TS 16W. PEAK INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO REACH 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG
KONG NEAR TAU 42.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS PAKHAR WILL TRACK ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE RUGGED TERRAIN, THEN COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:47 pm

Pakhar has emerged over the South China Sea a few hours ago...

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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:18 am

Looks like Luzon roughed it up a bit.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:24 am

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like Luzon roughed it up a bit.

Just a bit but not entirely. Shear looks more favorable in SCS than on the other side of Luzon (I'm now skeptical bout the accuracy of CIMSS's shear map), Cloud cover also grew in size.
I dont know if Pearl River Region can still take this knockout puch if Pakhar manage to land there.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 26, 2017 4:16 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LLCC. A 260616Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC, EXPOSED
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AFTER CROSSING LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING PHASE AND DECREASING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5/3.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 16W IS
TRACKING ALONG A DEEP-LAYERED, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA, MAKING LANDFALL JUST
AFTER TAU 24. DUE TO THE BROAD, WEAK NATURE OF THE LLCC, TS 16W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 55 TO 60
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TS 16W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AND
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 26, 2017 7:28 am

TS Pakhar has been moving towards the WNW-NW at a rather high speed of about 30kph throughout the day...

The recent northwestward movement has increased the risk of Pakhar coming closer to HongKong and Macau... Landfall near/over Macau and HongKong, or a little west of Macau, could occur as early as tomorrow(Sunday) morning (local date/time) if no significant change occurs in its movement speed and direction...

Image
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:12 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:TS Pakhar has been moving towards the WNW-NW at a rather high speed of about 30kph throughout the day...

The recent northwestward movement has increased the risk of Pakhar coming closer to HongKong and Macau... Landfall near/over Macau and HongKong, or a little west of Macau, could occur as early as tomorrow(Sunday) morning (local date/time) if no significant change occurs in its movement speed and direction...

Image
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:58 am

Image
TS 1714 (Pakhar)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 26 August 2017


<Analysis at 15 UTC, 26 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°55' (19.9°)
E116°00' (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby NotoSans » Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:05 pm

Still looks like a sheared storm on satellite imagery but the Pearl River Delta will still be affected by the strong winds under the convective mass at the northeastern quadrant. In Hong Kong, there are still a lot of collapsed trees on the streets and I would say the recovery works related to Hato have not yet been completed. The situation in Macau is probably much worse and I hope Pakhar won't bring further damage to the city.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 26, 2017 2:12 pm

Sheared but still dangerous.
Would be another direct hit to the Pearl river Estuary Region

Image
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 26, 2017 3:44 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSATING AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES
AND RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND A 261339Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THE POLEWARD CHANNEL IS BEING RESTRICTED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TS 16W HAS BEEN SLOWLY
ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST 24 ALONG SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS
LEADING TO A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYSTEM INTENSITY PEAKING AT 50
KNOTS. LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTERWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby NotoSans » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:01 pm

Storm-force winds affecting the southern part of Hong Kong with the remaining part of the territory affected by near storm-force winds.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#54 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:26 pm

Making landfall near Macau, close to where Typhoon Hato made landfall last week...

Image
Image

Some stations in Macau recorded wind gusts of over 100kph this Sunday morning, local date/time...

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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#55 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:33 pm

By the way, Pakhar is a 55kt STS by JMA @ 00Z today...

Image
STS 1714 (Pakhar)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 27 August 2017


<Analysis at 00 UTC, 27 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°50' (21.8°)
E113°25' (113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#56 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 26, 2017 9:39 pm

JTWC also estimated 55kts(1-min) at landfall...

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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 1:41 am

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.9N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 112.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER JUST
NOW MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER
THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 55 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CHEUNG CHAU ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54
KNOTS.
TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 16W WILL FULLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby NotoSans » Sun Aug 27, 2017 5:59 am

According to surface observations, the winds brought by Pakhar to Hong Kong were about 5-10 knots weaker than that brought by Hato, and I would say the winds brought by Pakhar to the urban areas were nearly as violent as that brought by Hato from what I have experienced.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby NotoSans » Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:13 am

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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Depression

#60 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:45 pm

Image
TD
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 27 August 2017


<Analysis at 18 UTC, 27 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N25°00' (25.0°)
E109°00' (109.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
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