WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 170824 1200 15.6N 125.9E WPAC 30 1002

30 knots but no change in the header.

[euro6208]

16W SIXTEEN 170824 0600 15.5N 127.5E WPAC 20 1007

16th TC is here.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC Warning #1

[mrbagyo]

All radars along the East Coast of the Philippines are not transmitting any data or maybe they're not functional at all right now.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED, IN THE PROCESS OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE
IN THE 241005Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 31
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 16W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN LUZON NEAR CASIGURAN JUST BEFORE TAU 24 THEN EXIT INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY TAU 36. AFTER CROSSING THE SCS, IT WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG BY TAU 72. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS
BEFORE INITIAL LANDFALL. LAND INTERACTION ACROSS LUZON WILL
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45 KNOTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE
SCS WHERE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BY TAU 72, TD 16W WILL PEAK
AT TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS, PLUS THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION, LEND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT- TO MID-TERM JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 16W WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL JUST SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG. THE STR WILL RE-BUILD AND RENDER A FLATTER AND MORE
WESTWARD TRACK FURTHER INLAND. BY TAU 120, THE TD WILL BE ALONG THE
CHINA-VIETNAM BORDER. LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO
WIDELY SPREAD ON THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

16W SIXTEEN 170824 1800 15.1N 125.2E WPAC 35 1005

Now a TS.

[1900hurricane]

Tropical Storm Pakhar in fact.

TS 1714 (Pakhar)
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 24 August 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 24 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20' (15.3°)
E124°50' (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 25 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30' (15.5°)
E122°50' (122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°35' (16.6°)
E120°35' (120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°10' (20.2°)
E115°35' (115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 27 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°35' (22.6°)
E109°40' (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

[euro6208]

Stronger at landfall for both Luzon and China. Macau still without water and electricity.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 241326Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE AND THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTIAGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WIND BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN
AREA OF WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS PAKHAR IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD PRIOR TO TAU 12 UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BREAK IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER LUZON PRIOR TO TAU 24 AND EXIT BACK INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA BY TAU 36. TS PAKHAR WILL TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND AGAIN MAKE LANDFALL TO THE SOUTH OF HONG KONG AT TAU
72. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION UP
TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER LUZON. TERRAIN
INTERACTION WITH LUZON WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS PRIOR
TO EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
CONTINUING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION WITH
THE SYSTEM REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK, VARYING ON WHEN AND HOW SHARP THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS, PLUS VARIATIONS IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS OVER LUZON LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AT TAU 72, TS 16W WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG
KONG. SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO SHIFT ITS TRACK WESTERLY. TS PAKHAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST CHINA, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ON THE EXACT POINT OF LANDFALL AND THE TRACK
AFTER LANDFALL LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

It's making a run for typhoon status before landfall, lets see if it will succeed - plenty of time left.

[euro6208]

Looks rather good.

[euro6208]

HWFR a typhoon for both location.

[1900hurricane]

I'm skeptical the core will keep intact after crossing Luzon.

[euro6208]

I noticed Pakhar sounds very fishy. Coincidence with Harvey in the Atlantic?

[mrbagyo]

Structure deteriorating due to land interaction.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LLCC WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE CENTER. A
242210Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW
POSITION FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
BELOW THE MOST RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS PAKHAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD PRIOR TO TAU 12,
TRACKING TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR. PAKHAR WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
LUZON SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS LUZON AND EXIT
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND AGAIN MAKE
LANDFALL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG PRIOR TO TAU 72. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION UP TO A PEAK
OF 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER LUZON. INTERACTION WITH THE
TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS
PRIOR TO EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION
WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL OVER CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED AN
IMMEDIATE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST THREE MODEL RUNS,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
THE STR HAS NOT WEAKENED AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS PROJECTED. ASIDE
FROM THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWEST FORECAST TRACK BUT THE SYSTEMS CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AT TAU 72, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CHINA AND INTO VIETNAM. AS THE SYSTEM IS MAKING LANDFALL,
THE STR WILL RE-BUILD AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE WESTERLY BY
TAU 96, AND THEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TS PAKHAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST CHINA,
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE TRACK DIRECTION AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD AFTER LANDFALL. THE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL TRACKS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Aurora Province in the path of Pakhar.

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD,
PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ALSO, A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS DISPERSED AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
INTERACT WITH THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
DEGRADED STATUS OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT DRIFTS OVER WARM
(31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION AS IT GRAVITATES TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR CASIGURAN
AROUND TAU 06, EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY TU 18, CROSS
THE SCS, THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL JUST SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO INITIAL LANDFALL,
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF LUZON, THEN
QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFY IN THE SCS, PEAKING TO 65 KNOTS JUST BEFORE ITS
FINAL LANDFALL.
C. BY TAU 72, TS PAKHAR WILL TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
IN RESPONSE TO A RE-BUILDING STR, GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS FROM THE RUGGED TERRAIN, THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

Made landfall over northern Aurora province between 8-10pm PhT (12z-14z)...