WPAC: SANVU - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

17W SANVU 170901 0000 27.2N 142.2E WPAC 90 953

Up to 90 knots Cat 2.

[mrbagyo]

ChichiJima again in the eyewall.

Chichijima's lowest recorded pressure thus far is 966.1 mb with 3.8 m/s east wind.

Maximun gust 39.8 m/s or 143.28 kph SSW wind recorded 4:41 AM JST


EDIT: windspeed is in m/s not in knots.(Already corrected the post)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Chichijima aws faulty?

[doomhaMwx]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH STRONG CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 25 NM
CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. A 010442Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN BOTH ANIMATED AND STILL IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29-30 KNOTS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
JET, IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
WHICH IS SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. TY SANVU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24,
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BECOMING AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

So this is the typhoon JTWC is peaking at 110 knots.
It's current appearance suggests dry air has gutted it down to its core.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT LIKELY
DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
011806Z GPM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 TO T4.2. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST OF 17W AND A TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAVE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DECREASED THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF
SANVU. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS)
WHICH HAS PREVENTED ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. TYPHOON 17W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SANVU. THE TUTT CELL
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANVU WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING WEAKENING
OF SANVU. VWS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH
APPROACHES SANVU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE. SANVU BEGINS EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND WILL
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 48 WITH SUSTAINED GALE
FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (SANVU) WARNING NR
20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE AS CONVECTION
IS FLARING AND DISORGANIZED BUT STILL WRAPPING IN TO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 020426Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW, CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM SANVU
IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TROPICAL STORM SANVU IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL INCREASE VWS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH IT WILL ACCELERATE
AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS SANVU WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 48, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SANVU) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 35.3N 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 40.8N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 149.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DISPERSE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATED DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE 021716Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS
ENTERED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021800Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN