ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Michele B
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#12381 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:43 pm

Otown_Wx wrote:
Orlando wrote:I evacuated to Chattanooga, TN. I will be here for awhile. We are having serious wind gusts. It has rained all day. I am with family on a mountain NE of town. I would be willing to bet that the gusts are greater than 50 mph. It is a bit scary.

Anyone with Orlando news, please let us know.


Here in Orlando to put it bluntly sucks!! No power they say maybe up to 3 weeks!!! Most stores all closed cause no power and the one that are lines go out the doors. Lots of trees damage everywhere and most traffic lights don't work.


Sounds like typical hurricane aftermath.

Sorry you're going through this, but all of us in FL are in this, too. Everything you described is happening here, too. It's statewide.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12382 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:46 pm

stormreader wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:I also wonder if the Category Four Keys landfall will be kept in the post-season... I know there was some discussion on here about its intensity. Downgrading a landfall intensity in the post-season seems to be pretty common, with Katrina being the example I remember most. I kind of hope they keep it due to the multiple category four landfall record, but accuracy is better than setting records...

Accuracy is better. I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered the Keys landfall to Cat 3. The above post by "Crazy" mentions a 110kt wind at the keys, and that would be strong Cat 3. Think that would be more accurate.


They're showing Key's damage now on Fox News.

A lot of mobile homes missing....some look like maybe they floated out to sea with the water.

They can only go so many miles. The road is not safe, so no one has made it all the way down, yet, I guess they said. Not sure if they said they had been to Cudjoe Key (ground zero), as I was only half listening!

I'm more concerned about hearing when WE get power back, quite frankly! It's hot and sticky. Not too bad during the day, you can always splash cold water on and get cooled off. But impossible to sleep!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12383 Postby stormreader » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:29 pm

abajan wrote:And now for a recap:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php
(An animation of Irma's track will load after a few seconds.)

Like that a lot.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12384 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:58 pm

stormreader wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:I also wonder if the Category Four Keys landfall will be kept in the post-season... I know there was some discussion on here about its intensity. Downgrading a landfall intensity in the post-season seems to be pretty common, with Katrina being the example I remember most. I kind of hope they keep it due to the multiple category four landfall record, but accuracy is better than setting records...

Accuracy is better. I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered the Keys landfall to Cat 3. The above post by "Crazy" mentions a 110kt wind at the keys, and that would be strong Cat 3. Think that would be more accurate.


That's largely based on the aircraft data. There was a 129 kt dropsonde wind but I believe it should be discarded as it doesn't line up with any other data. I believe the highest SFMR as it was approaching the Keys was around 106, while the FL winds were in the low 120s. There is some question because the surface data supported higher than aircraft at final landfall, but that is excusable since the right front quadrant was over land. I only saw one reasonable cat 4 observation - SFMR of 113 about 9 hours before hitting the Keys - after Irma left Cuba. Based on all that data, I believe 110 kt was the Keys landfall intensity and history is no longer set.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12385 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:11 pm

Irma rain total IMBY was 11.47. Just S of Fort Pierce which was clobbered with rain. I am a CoCoHRaS reporting station in Port Saint Lucie West. I lost 5 sections of fence. No biggie. Roof looks great. I'm happy and have 20 gallons of gas in gas canisters that were earmarked for the Genny but I never lost power. should the scarcity of gas last a few more days with the return of all those who ran away I'm good. Whew what a whirlwind lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12386 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:31 pm

My final rainfall tally at my home station from the Nor'easter preceding Irma and then Irma herself was just under 12 inches

Highest wind gust measured was 88 mph. That is the strongest wind gust I can ever recall measuring at my home ever!!

We had strong Cat 1 like conditions at the worst of Irma's approach here. The heavy rain for two days from the nor'easter, strong northeast to east winds just prior to Irma's arrival in North Florida, then the wind shift to south/southeast as Irma passed us to the west is what contributed to the massive storm surge and flooding downtown Jax and along the St. Johns River and its tributaries!!

Historic flooding here for the ages. Thank goodness that water has long receded, but Irma's flooding of Jax will be analyzing for many years to come for sure!!

We had significant wind damage inland across the area. Many trees and power lines were down. I just got my power restored, first time I had my power back since the height of the hurricane here in Northeast Florida, which was 3:00 a.m. Monday morning. I am OK and thank God!! Thanks to all of you for your prayers for me and everyone who were impacted by this historic, deadly monster cyclone named Irma!

Jose please stay away. I pray the UKMET is wrong with its solution with Jose looping and turning back towards Florida within the next week... For heavens sake, we do not need this!!!:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12387 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:36 pm

Here in Boca Raton, lost power Sun around 3pm. Slept two nights with the sound of generators humming around the neighborhood. Wow it is tough without power this time of year. Power restored the afternoon. Winds were rather intense here and stronger than I thought. Big trees down in the neighborhood. Some power lines also down. Could have been FAR worse here and feel terrible to those in the Keys and Caribbean that took the full wrath of Irma.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12388 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:41 pm

Hey Gatorcane! I am happy to see that you are OK and made through Irma. She packed a ferocious wallop for sure!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#12389 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:57 pm

Michele B wrote:
Otown_Wx wrote:
Orlando wrote:I evacuated to Chattanooga, TN. I will be here for awhile. We are having serious wind gusts. It has rained all day. I am with family on a mountain NE of town. I would be willing to bet that the gusts are greater than 50 mph. It is a bit scary.

Anyone with Orlando news, please let us know.


Here in Orlando to put it bluntly sucks!! No power they say maybe up to 3 weeks!!! Most stores all closed cause no power and the one that are lines go out the doors. Lots of trees damage everywhere and most traffic lights don't work.


Sounds like typical hurricane aftermath.

Sorry you're going through this, but all of us in FL are in this, too. Everything you described is happening here, too. It's statewide.
I believe Otown Wx was responding to another fellow Orlandoan asking about the conditions in Orlando. I don't think he needed to be reminded that Orlando is not any worse than any where else in Florida. I'm sure he knows it's not a competition. .
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12390 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:13 pm

I just finished making these. It shows how dominant the Euro was during Irma in the 48 to 120 hour forecast period.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12391 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:00 am

We survived Irma, but still no electricity. But we are lucky, as most of our neighborhood after our house has no water either. A tribute to it's namesake, our neighborhood, "Oak Hills", suffered A LOT of tree damage. Uprooted trees crossing the road in 4 places made leaving the neighborhood impassible until yesterday. Everyone has been chipping in to move the trees and limbs to the curbside. So glad we have the pool, as it has been the relief we all need from the hard work and heat during recovery.
Although just a borderline Cat 1 here (sustained upper 60's and gusts into 80's), Irma left her mark on our area of Clearwater, FL. We got to witness a small tornado blow through the neighbor's back yard and down the street. It was like the 4th of July with every transformer blowing out for miles around. We had an arching power situation in our front yard, that repeatedly was catching the trees on fire, which were then breaking off flaming branches that would land on our roof and side yard. -So we were up all night, outside through most of the worst of it, stomping out flames and pulling branches from the roof. I had to climb up into the attic with a flashlight twice to be sure no fires were taking hold.
So that was our "adventure". But at least we have gotten to know our neighbors much better! We are planning a neighborhood block party/cookout tonite with all the meats and foods that we all have left before they start to spoil, since nearly all the ice most people had is melting in their coolers now.
There is still very little gas, if any, in the region. Stores are not yet able to restock, and 77% of the county is without electricity still. Hoping a sense of normalcy comes back soon, or things could go a little crazy. Those less prepared will start to get desperate to find food and gas, let alone already have short tempers in the heat with no AC.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12392 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:23 am

No power in Summer: Can run a room A/C off a generator if you have one. Whole house generators may power the Central A/C or may not.
No power in Winter: Can run small room heaters off a generator or the furnace off a whole house generator. If none, heat is possible from a wood stove or fireplace.

In winter, you can put food outside or in the garage to keep cold if necessary.

At least in summer, it may be miserable without A/C, but you (and your water pipes) won't freeze.

Not sure which is worse overall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12393 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:37 am

Current totals for Irma threads:

Code: Select all

Thread            Pages   Posts

Models            510   10191   

Recon DIscussion         9   164

Recon Main (Data)         38   746

Observations         2   37

Discussion         572   11439

Ace Poll            3   43
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals            1134   22620
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12394 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:39 am

NOAA just posted a link to high-res aerial damage photos:

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12395 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:16 am

I'll just say it again, Good Riddance Irma!!!

One and done. Won't be seeing you in 2023! :Can:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12396 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 am

Well this is unsettling. Lack of power taking a toll:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/13/health/fl ... index.html

I visited Hollywood two months ago so this is sad. There's also been deaths reported from carbon monoxide poisoning due to leaving the generator on inside the house.

EDIT: Old link didn't work. Posted new link with an updated death toll.
Last edited by galaxy401 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#12397 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:12 pm

Amazing storm, most of the Florida E coast communities reported higher wind gusts than Florida W coast communities on the W side of the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12398 Postby Raebie » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:NOAA just posted a link to high-res aerial damage photos:

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html


Skipped over Cudjoe & Big Pine?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12399 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:14 pm

Brian McNoldy has a website with lots of Irma and Harvey radar loops and other stuff. Here's Irma:

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/irma17/

For Harvey, just edit the url:

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/harvey17/
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#12400 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:33 pm

Well, I am flying home today after working relief efforts since Saturday. It was an interesting experience...including my first time through the RFQ of a legitimate hurricane. I can now definitvlry say that anyone who says the words "just a cat 1" and means them may very well be an idiot.

I was in one location near Everglades City that had been hard hit by surge. There was a mess of debris and stuff at the high water mark; kids toys, shoes, clothes, even a softball bat, and as I stood there, the thought came upon me that I was literally looking at the remnants of people's lives. It was quite sobering.

The keys are, to ky understanding, an absolute disaster zone. And as bad as it was for mainland Florida, it could have been worlds worse. This storm should serve as a warning to us all, that preperation is not an option but a necessity.

I will come out of this hurricane with a few good memories, a few bad ones, and a bunch of scars on my arms from clearing trees. So many Floridians will come out having lost so much, and for that, my heart is with them.

Mankind cannot hold a candle to nature. We never have, and we never will. When the next storm comes, and it will come, all we can do is prepare, hold on, and respond to help our fellow men and women in need.

I believe that another Cat 5 will make landfall in FL, and likely sooner rather than later. The entire response force of the US, from local EOCs to the federal government, as well as civilian volunteers, must make ready to deal with this threat.

Every couple of decades, a major storm comes along that all following storms are compared against. Camille; Andrew; Katrina, and now Harvey. What will the next one be?
Last edited by Hurricane Andrew on Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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