storm_in_a_teacup wrote:tolakram wrote:
As far as surge and damage, I figured it would be a lot like Ike, with a spread out windfield capable of doing a lot of moderate damage to a wide area. Personally I didn't even consider the surge issue, and I can't find if there were any surge forecasts for places like Jacksonville or not.
Ike counts as "moderate" surge? I was under the impression the surge damage from Ike was really bad (at least when I was in Galveston afterwards basically everything up to the first stories of buildings was gutted and there were boats and walls of debris piled on the highway). The only saving grace of Ike's surge was it was focused on the Bolivar Peninsula instead of going up the Houston Ship Channel. But Bolivar was completely wiped clean.
As far as computer models go it's not possible to reduce it to "let's go with this model over this one." As I have said before, numerical physics simulations can only be a guide, and so someone has to call it somewhere.
No, I was unclear above. I was talking moderate wind damage to a wide area rather than concentrated horrific wind damage. I didn't know what to expect for surge other than what the NHC and NWS forecast. Ike was in a bowl, Irma was swirling around a peninsula. I should have figured it would be bad based on those images from the Bahamas of shallow bays devoid of water, but it just didn't dawn on me that the east coast would experience anything significant. Someone was saying Miami was fairly immune to storm surge based on the ocean topology, and the surge maps seemed to bear this out.
I'm not a met, or a physicist, but I do thing the equation is solvable ... just need more inputs and processing power.