ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

This is not good for New England...

[SouthFLTropics]

The Magic door opens up and saves the day...

[Hurricaneman]

The Magic door opens up and saves the day...

The GFS is showing a trend west, any further west and this hits the east coast or even Florida if the Euro continues trending west

[AubreyStorm]

But...Hmmmmm!
The high is stronger on this run and GFS more in consensus with the EURO.

[blp]

Trend SW.

[AutoPenalti]

Trend SW.

Not a good sign, will be an interesting few days.

[blp]

CMC is SW as well. With stronger ridge.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ummmm ok......

[Brent]

Euro is gonna have some people wide awake in a few hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro is gonna have some people wide awake in a few hours

We could see some activity in here once the U.S. comes into play if this trend continues.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro leaves us on a cliffhanger but it would definitely get close to Florida before the magic trap door opens

[Alyono]

it's 10 days away, but that may be far enough south such that it does not recurve

then again, this may be another WOLF! WOLF! Isn't this like the 9th CV cane the models have forecast this year?

[KWT]

Well as suspected the models have moved south overnight, which isn't a huge surprise to me I've got to say.

As for whether it forms or not, I think this is by far the strongest model consensus for something forming, every model is basically developing this and have been developing this for quite some runs now. Would be a terrible bust if this just rolled on out like PTC-10 did.

Maybe however PTC-10 can give a rough clue as to possible track down the line...

[chaser1]

Holy Hannah!! "I" Storms give me the creeps as it is but with the EURO having 93L thrash the Leeward Islands & P.R. on its way up the alley & potentially toward the Bahamas & the Southeast U.S......just feels like bad mojo coming. On one hand, I believe there was a pretty sharp trough progged to drop down the CONUS E. Coast toward the end of the long range cycle. On the other hand, two other observations come to mind. Seems to me that the mid & upper latitude 500 mb pattern has been particularly progressive over the past few months. The other being that the long wave pattern this year seems to favor troughs to drop south from the Great Lakes rather than farther East and off the U.S. Seaboard like so many recent past years. Just as timing is everything applies to each Hurricane season, if the westward trend that all models verifies, then there may be a good deal of nervously wringing of hands in the days to come thanks largely to an especially formidable W. Atlantic ridge this year. Those about to embark on that awesome cruise to San Juan over the next few days, might just want to reconsider that decision to pass on the cruise insurance for their trip.

[jlauderdal]

it's 10 days away, but that may be far enough south such that it does not recurve

then again, this may be another WOLF! WOLF! Isn't this like the 9th CV cane the models have forecast this year?

any predictions which gfs run hits sofla with a major?

[TheStormExpert]

it's 10 days away, but that may be far enough south such that it does not recurve

then again, this may be another WOLF! WOLF! Isn't this like the 9th CV cane the models have forecast this year?

I'd give it a day or two before calling wolf. I know we've been down this road before with Invest 91L (future Harvey) which was originally forecasted to quickly develop and head north of the Caribbean on a somewhat similar track or projectile, and that didn't even come close to happening of course it meant later development which allowed it to pose a MUCH GREATER threat to the U.S.

[TheStormExpert]

00z EPS (Euro) Ensembles have shifted SW some.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[northjaxpro]

One ominous trend for two consecutive run cycles that I have observed is that EURO retrogrades the trough over the CONUS. The projected forecast for the next 10-14 days was for the NAO to become positive, which indeed correlates to building High Pressure, mainly over Eastern North America.


This is still 9-10 days out at least and way too soon to know the fine details, but I must say we may have some interesting tracking of 93L in the days to come.

[SFLcane]

Check out the concentration now near Florida..

Some in the GOM