Pughetime12 wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:Pughetime12 wrote:
Would it going more north and interacting the trough more push it more W or E? Sorry for the questions, you sniffed out the GFS East Shift early a couple of days ago and Euro followed suit as did the NHC...so you seem like you are on top of it!
In this situation the trough is located over the Northeast US and would help to pull Irma north. If Irma is slower and/or further south as the trough exits, then there will be less of a "pull" to the north and you get a western scenario like the Euro showed today. If Irma is a little faster and further north it will be pulled to the north a little more and also accelerate as it does so. That's why when you compare the 12z NAM with the 18z NAM you find the 18z run is much faster by the end of the run and further east/north. The runs of the GFS and Euro that show a similar track also interact with the trough more and move Irma quicker. IMO, the bullseye is going to be Miami for this one as I see it getting pulled north into the weakness a little quicker than some models indicate, but all of Florida needs to be prepared as nothing is certain regarding exact landfall location.
Thanks for the explanation! If it pulls north sooner, would that NW shift that happens in GA/SC happen sooner?
If it gets pulled north sooner then it would actually have more time to go over the open waters before being pulled back NW by the shortwave dropping down from the Midwest. The SC/GA line looks like the consensus landfall point if this does actually take the eastern route whereas a slower/south one like the Euro/UK gives you the west or central FL track. Both are possible and all depend on the interaction with the trough and forward speed of Irma. The fact she's tracking N of her forecast points still is one sign that the eastern solution MIGHT occur, but still too early to know.
