ATL: IRMA - Models

[skufful]

12z run

Wondering how this model verifies with the NHC? I am up in Beaufort, SC and have been in the crosshairs for sometime now.

[Steve]

72 hours, EC Is coming up toward SW tip of FL showing 927mb on the low resolution version near Marathon Key and the Everglades. . It might be a hair far west, so just as I expect the Eastern tracks to move a little farther west, EC may nudge 20-25 miles or so back east (edit).

The Euro has 150 mph wind gusts over Homestead & 125 mph wind gusts over Miami, it will still be a problem for Miami Dade if this run is correct.

! meant Euro would nudge 20-25 miles back EAST. Yeah, I agree. Miami/Miami Gardens/Homestead/Kendall - all that seeing a minimum of Cat 3 conditions even with the EC as far west as it was. I expect it to move back a little though unless it's onto something nothing else has latched onto yet. I'm not taking the NAVGEM seriously. EC continues toward Memphis.

JMA is almost a clone of the European track-wise but starts off a little father east in South Florida. In my mind, its 12Z run has the most legitimate track so far.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=221

[tolakram]

Not model related but he's got experience as far as where to go.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/905857049426362369




Josh Morgerman ✔ @iCyclone
2 pm. 12Z GFS ticked W, Euro dodged way W. So I'm goin' for SE FL solution. In Jupiter, heading S on FL Tnpk. N-bound traffic heavy. #IRMA
2:15 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[SEASON_CANCELED]

florida west coast is 12 years overdue for a major

[AutoPenalti]

Umm, wouldn't that west shift mean we get the nastiest side of Irma? The northeastern side?

[CaptinCrunch]

Per that model run, Key Largo would be around the center of the eye and puts Miami to Jupiter on the dirty side. Homestead takes a direct hit from Eastern side of the eye wall.

[tolakram]

12z run

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/0BRZKxa.gif[/img]

Wondering how this model verifies with the NHC? I am up in Beaufort, SC and have been in the crosshairs for sometime now.

This is the euro and is extremely good with track, the NHC has been following it closely along with a blend of other ensembles. Do we know exactly, no, follow the NHC cone and be prepared.

[Crackbone]

tampa/fort myers/ sebring/ lakeland have no gas folks. The people cant go anywhere. everybody panicked on monday/tuesday which was why i am upset right now. People prepared that did not need to prepare there are not infinite resources.

I left Ft Myers yesterday. Gassed up, boarded up and got out. It wasn’t panic, it was being forward thinking. I figured this could be a scenario considering it’s within the margin of error. In Cincinnati today where I will ride this out.

[Steve]

12z run

Wondering how this model verifies with the NHC? I am up in Beaufort, SC and have been in the crosshairs for sometime now.

It's generally their preferred model of choice.

[SunnyThoughts]

That west shift even puts much of the western panhandle under some tropical storm force winds.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

tampa/fort myers/ sebring/ lakeland have no gas folks. The people cant go anywhere. everybody panicked on monday/tuesday which was why i am upset right now. People prepared that did not need to prepare there are not infinite resources.

I left Ft Myers yesterday. Gassed up, boarded up and got out. It wasn’t panic, it was being forward thinking. I figured this could be a scenario considering it’s within the margin of error. In Cincinnati today where I will ride this out.

Tampa is stupid crazy and it wasn't even forecast to go near us I saw a fistfight at WaWa on Fletcher over gas. This is going to create panic and multiply the stupid. I will drive to Inverness if more models verify this im not staying around here this city is a deathtrap during just a afternoon shower

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905861946167238656




Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
If Hurricane #Irma takes ECMWF 12z slightly west track, huge wind gusts for Florida from Keys to Miami, Tampa & Orlando, Tallahassee & Jax.
2:34 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[NDG]

Wind gusts forecast by the 12z Euro.

[Jevo]

I don't think we see a big shift at 5pm... NHC has been West of GFS and East of the Euro.. If anything Id expect a slight nudge back W over Metro Miami Dade county..

[Steve]

That west shift even puts much of the western panhandle under some tropical storm force winds.

The irony is that it really looks to be a beautiful weekend over there. Stiff North breezes could make for some big swells offshore for the kite surfers that surf on the east side. Sunny and low-mid 80s' days and mid 60's nights. You can't beat that. Rather than breaking the rules, I'll put in the forecast model from NWS M-P
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... bGTLoeWxbY

[SEASON_CANCELED]

the cone will shift. that is your best model, and its moved significantly west. Even if you split the difference. Its still way west

[TheStormExpert]

Wind gusts forecast by the 12z Euro.

What could we expect in Palm Beach Gardens (just north of West Palm Beach)?

[gatorcane]

Updated spaghetti. Note EURO not shown (west of the tightly clustered guidance) and similar to the UKMET as it comes into the Keys from the south:

[Jevo]

the cone will shift. that is your best model, and its moved significantly west. Even if you split the difference. Its still way west

It's moved 80 miles W at 60-72 hours... NHC is not going to make a drastic forecast alteration based on 1 run. Perhaps watches go up, but you'd be more likely to see a change once they have the late GFS and Euro ensembles. They are also utilizing on the FSU Super ensemble which is in the GFS camp right now.

[Steve]

I don't think we see a big shift at 5pm... NHC has been West of GFS and East of the Euro.. If anything Id expect a slight nudge back W over Metro Miami Dade county..

I agree. I actually really dig the 24 hour forecast points from the JMA now over the ECMWF. I think the NHC comes west, and I'm not sure there is a second landfall in coastal GA/SC anymore. Models that were farthest north except the GFS have come around to a FL/GA Border 2nd landfall. Better models stay within the state of Florida. Favoring the JMA at this point is only academic because it's not appreciably that different than the Euro besides point of entry. The far western Keys would have it better under JMA than EC, but that's about it as the tracks more or less converge up the state.