ATL: IRMA - Models

[NDG]

Looks like that cooler drier air from that trough is being sucked in and the Naples landfall is reducing its strength fairly quickly. Still a wind and rain event across the entire state, but much less than what it looked like 24-48 hours ago.

No is not, it has had a dry slot on the southern quadrant of the eye ever since it left the coast of Cuba.

[Nimbus]

Maybe the 18Z GFS will have a correct track at 12 hrs within 10 miles?
Orlando needs to know..

[Otown_Wx]

Maybe the 18Z GFS will have a correct track at 12 hrs within 10 miles?
Orlando needs to know..

Tom Terry from WFTV said the same thing right now. That hurricane ATM moving due north and it has to start moving a bit west of north soon or else it will miss next forecasted point

[Blown Away]

Maybe the 18Z GFS will have a correct track at 12 hrs within 10 miles?
Orlando needs to know..

Tom Terry from WFTV said the same thing right now. That hurricane ATM moving due north and it has to start moving a bit west of north soon or else it will miss next forecasted point

I guess the GFS & Ukmet get credit for this current E of track movement... Theme for the past 24 hours, the NHC on the W side of spaghetti plots...

[TheBigO]

Any new model runs coming up? Tony Mainolfi at WESH here in Orlando seems to be unilaterally saying the eye is going to hit central Florida, specifically the Orlando metro area. Would like to see something more objective from a model first. Don't see a shift from the NHC track yet either.

[rickybobby]

A few people in fb are saying it's moving nne now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

A few people in fb are saying it's moving nne now.

This thing must still have a sustained hurricane force wind core, correct?

[tolakram]

Any new model runs coming up? Tony Mainolfi at WESH here in Orlando seems to be unilaterally saying the eye is going to hit central Florida, specifically the Orlando metro area. Would like to see something more objective from a model first. Don't see a shift from the NHC track yet either.

GFS 18z


HWRF 18z

[dspguy]

Can someone explain the difference between the:

GFS MSLP (mb) and 10m wind speed chart

and the

GFS 850 hpa height dam chart?

Specifically, why does the former show much less wind speed than the latter for the same area? Is it simply the height at which this wind is to be expected? Meaning at ground level, look at the 10m chart? Or is 10m the 10 MINUTE? chart not the 10 meter chart?

[terstorm1012]

Can someone explain the difference between the:

GFS MSLP (mb) and 10m wind speed chart

and the

GFS 850 hpa height dam chart?

Specifically, why does the former show much less wind speed than the latter for the same area? Is it simply the height at which this wind is to be expected? Meaning at ground level, look at the 10m chart? Or is 10m the 10 MINUTE? chart not the 10 meter chart?

MSLP=Mean Sea Level Pressure
10m would mean 10 meters

850mb level is approximately 5,000 feet up (I think, don't quote me on that)

[dspguy]

850mb level is approximately 5,000 feet up (I think, don't quote me on that)

So the average lay person doesn't really care what the 5,000 ft values are since we wouldn't see them at ground level?

[terstorm1012]

So the average lay person doesn't really care what the 5,000 ft values are since we wouldn't see them at ground level?

sometimes those winds at 5,000 ft can mix down to the surface. the 850mb is still a useful chart.

500mb is even more useful if you want to see steering currents and whatnot.

[Sanibel]

GFS was too far east for most of Irma except for the last most important run where it nailed the east jog after landfall...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

.