ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.

[jhpigott]

Euro running yet?

[Evil Jeremy]

Euro running yet?

It initialized, and has been taking it's time to spit out the 24 hour frame.

[wxmann_91]

0Z Euro initialized. A touch north than yesterday's 0Z run at 24 hr.

[Steve]

Euro running yet?

Yeah. Initial is out at 960 on low res 24 hour run. You'll need access to the pay versions for shorter plot times.

[tallywx]

Euro actually west at Hour 30. Slightly off of St. Pete as opposed to Tampa.

[Steve]

It's at least partially along the coast at 24 hours. Maybe a hair West of VIPIR - looks like a coast runner on that 24 hour jump.

[Steve]

Euro actually west at Hour 30. Slightly off of St. Pete as opposed to Tampa.

Slightly off so no real landfalls but lots of coastal destruction with a large swath of populated coastline taking that 4 then 3 eyewall. I wonder if it comes in at all until like Carabelle or Alligator Point or maybe around Lake City. Interested to hear 36.

[pcolaman]

Looks like up near the Big Bend area

[Steve]

Looks like it must come in around Perry or Cross City based on the 48 hour line. I wouldn't have called that. Probably a Cat 2 up that way.

Ensembles had a lot of NE Gulf solutions at 12z. Euro vs GFS again. By the way that TV ViPIR model is insane. 4 up the coast until around Tampa then 3 up the coast until landfall. Kind of overdoing it but that would be something.

[MrJames]

Looks like landfall SW of Perry

[pcolaman]

Looks like more closer to Apalachicola

[MrJames]

[p1nheadlarry]

Looks like more closer to Apalachicola

It's east of Apalachicola. Carabelle, Panacea, Alligator Point. Where Hermine hit.

[pcolaman]

So 2 days out till northern gulf Coast . So possible shift towards the west later?

[p1nheadlarry]

So 2 days out till northern gulf Coast . So possible shift towards the west later?

Depends on the short-term from Irma. I say if the eye comes in west of KW, something like this could verify. And it could very well be stronger than what the Euro shows. It's already nearly sub-930 and I fully expect to wake up to a monster.

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF shifted E through 24 hours...

[Alyono]

EC makes landfall near Sarasota after missing Charlotte harbor by less than 5 miles. It then moves back offshore for a final landfall in the Big Bend as a weakening hurricane. EC pressure manages to get down into the 930s

[Stormcenter]

That's a pretty significant shift west.

EC makes landfall near Sarasota after missing Charlotte harbor by less than 5 miles. It then moves back offshore for a final landfall in the Big Bend as a weakening hurricane. EC pressure manages to get down into the 930s

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow looks like Hermine 2.0