ATL: IRMA - Models

[PerfectStorm]

Can a pro roll an updated projected sustained and wind gust model when new model outputs are out as hours pass? Especially for W Coast Naples to Tallahassee. Much appreciated to all providing the great analysis. Been on here since the PBP days.

[GBPackMan]

Some need to remember that many of the usual posters are in Florida and may have lost power/internet by now, so the information on the models may be a bit more scarce than usual.

[tolakram]

[GBPackMan]

I see a direct north movement from Big Pine (where it landed after a ENE jog/wobble), further east than even the 6z models expected (except GFS). Looks like it is possible to see a south of Naples landing based on current movement.

[MrJames]

12z GFS slightly west through Central Florida and further west as it gets to North Florida.

[GBPackMan]

The 11am NHC update did move it slightly east closer to/on the western FL coast. This would indicate an expected landfall at or near Naples.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... d_wind.png

They also adjusted the wind maps. For example my area of the far western end of the panhandle went from 25-30% chance of TS winds within 5 days to the upper teen, lower 20% range, indicating a slightly more eastward path.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... toa_34.png

[MrJames]

12z UKMet shifts west again. Don't have the plots to see exactly where though.

[NDG]

If the 12z Euro shifts slightly to the right the NHC will have no option but to shift the track a little more to the right with with the rest of the models.

[gigabite]

This is a plot of historical positions.

[LarryWx]

12z UKMet shifts west again. Don't have the plots to see exactly where though.

So, the UKMET, after shifting quite a bit to the east at 0Z today, has shifted back west at 12Z. Anyone have the coordinates?

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro initialized way too far south!

[LarryWx]

As expected due due to the 0Z Euro being too far west this morning, the 12Z Euro is shifting back east a bit and is now just inland of the Tampa area after having gone over the Naples-Ft. Myers corridor.

[NDG]

Yeap, the 12z Euro as expected shifted a little to the right to be more in consensus with the rest of the models.

[Maineman]

Jack Sillin livestreaming and compiling the model and overall situation for Irma

https://www.facebook.com/weatherdotus/videos/2003912336505617/

[MrJames]

12z Euro scrapes Naples and into Cape Coral.
Over Tampa.
Back into the GOM near Spring Hill.
Landfall again in Cedar Key.
Over Perry.
Scrapes to the east of Tallahassee and into Georgia.

[NDG]

12z Euro gif loop. Shows Irma tracking parallel to the coast but mostly just inland unlike the 0z run which showed to stay mostly offshore during the whole time.

[Maineman]

Yep, final and safe landfall here. For other parameters and time steps, check menu. (-) button to zoom out, click to zoom in, into edges for pan.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/834-w-301-n/sea-level-pressure/20170911-1500z.html

[otowntiger]

12z Euro gif loop. Shows Irma tracking parallel to the coast but mostly just inland unlike the 0z run which showed to stay mostly offshore during the whole time.

That looks like a mere 50-60 mph winds for us now.

[NDG]

12z Euro gif loop. Shows Irma tracking parallel to the coast but mostly just inland unlike the 0z run which showed to stay mostly offshore during the whole time.

https://i.imgur.com/sBt2Jau.gif

That looks like a mere 50-60 mph winds for us now.

That's sustained with Wind gusts 85-105 mph according to the latest Euro

[GBPackMan]

Looks like that cooler drier air from that trough is being sucked in and the Naples landfall is reducing its strength fairly quickly. Still a wind and rain event across the entire state, but much less than what it looked like 24-48 hours ago.