ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: IRMA - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 28, 2017 6:46 am

Model runs here.

Archive Model Runs
GFS 00Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/KPSadGg.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/EkOiL1v.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/oRHM3Am.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/bW90QhD.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/RPaNUB0.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/ud0N4n8.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/a9svJ1a.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/GvjUeNV.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/bEKDAdn.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/QHDFlZC.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/k0tuP2c.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/eFR7lRk.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/7Hlx1r7.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/tUTo3nv.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/IYZalar.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/J37okRY.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/2nVNDND.gif
GFS 18Z Sep 01: https://i.imgur.com/ERlttJ0.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/SFtTnEc.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/VqWLHF7.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/8E3DPDb.gif
GFS 18Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/TNN3dFL.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/ROAu0cy.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/e5rOFkU.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/wVn3I0o.gif
GFS 18Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/AGyr1FQ.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/qAzlj96.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/db55WM1.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/g0ydnCj.gif

ECMWF 00Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/0SSQ1DP.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/M119odN.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/E6UQ1G5.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/EnwSQqI.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/DnOUvWk.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/HLDgY7d.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/k0tuP2c.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/kxH06Ud.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/UrXKWH6.gif
ECMWF 12Z Sep 01: https://i.imgur.com/svBjB4H.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/LDXBam1.gif
ECMWF 12Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/wsWyjCT.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/vxDVJRb.gif
ECMWF 12Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/Kmi2ZiZ.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/5PF6LU5.gif
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Digital-TC-Chaser

2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Aug 28, 2017 7:15 am

Image
93L Organised TS @138hrs
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 28, 2017 7:21 am

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#4 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:03 am

Another "hop scotch" run.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#5 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:19 am

Euro ensembles are mostly just north or NE of the islands when the run ends with a few going through the islands:
Image
1 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#6 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:41 am

Yeah. I'm guessing it will end up a few degrees south of the models in the short term.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#7 Postby blp » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:49 am

RL3AO wrote:Yeah. I'm guessing it will end up a few degrees south of the models in the short term.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/kYLQh8C.png[/]


According to 12z GFS the N to NNW movement and consolidation will happen in 12-24hrs so let's see if we get that lift in latitude. The shift is pretty significant it goes from 11.5 N currently to 15N over the Cape Verde islands in 24 hours. I believe that could have some implications down the road.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4665
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#8 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 11:53 am

RL3AO wrote:Yeah. I'm guessing it will end up a few degrees south of the models in the short term.

Image


Agreed, but that would be a bit concerning. Get ready everyone... halftime is over.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#9 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2017 11:56 am

Latest GFS and CMC show a very strong trough over the Eastern Seaboard next week. If they are right, tough to get anything close to the US. But it is all long-range so subject to large error.

Image
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#10 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest GFS and CMC show a very strong trough over the Eastern Seaboard next week. If they are right, tough to get anything close to the US. But it is all long-range so subject to large error.

Image

Judging the strength and location of that trough is VERY difficult 200+ hrs out.

Since I think we are going to be under a positive NAO, I feel like as we get closer to that timeframe it's going to be a matter of how strong that ridge can tilt that trough enough to the point where it may become more of a concern for the SE US.

Some EPS ensembles have the SE Bahamas under the gun.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#11 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:34 pm

Image

Here is the NAO forecast for the next 10 days or so. The top image shows it well. Let's see how positive/negative it gets as time goes on.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#12 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:42 pm

12z UKMET output:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.1N 26.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.08.2017 15.4N 27.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2017 15.9N 30.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2017 16.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2017 16.9N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2017 18.0N 36.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2017 18.9N 38.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2017 19.8N 41.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2017 20.1N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2017 20.2N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2017 20.0N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 778
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#13 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:53 pm

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.1N 26.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2017 36 15.4N 27.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 30.08.2017 48 15.9N 30.1W 1004 33
0000UTC 31.08.2017 60 16.3N 32.1W 1002 38
1200UTC 31.08.2017 72 16.9N 34.2W 999 41
0000UTC 01.09.2017 84 18.0N 36.4W 996 41
1200UTC 01.09.2017 96 18.9N 38.7W 996 43
0000UTC 02.09.2017 108 19.8N 41.1W 996 44
1200UTC 02.09.2017 120 20.1N 43.4W 996 43
0000UTC 03.09.2017 132 20.2N 45.6W 995 47
1200UTC 03.09.2017 144 20.0N 47.3W 992 55
0 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 504
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#14 Postby hohnywx » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:02 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.1N 26.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2017 36 15.4N 27.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 30.08.2017 48 15.9N 30.1W 1004 33
0000UTC 31.08.2017 60 16.3N 32.1W 1002 38
1200UTC 31.08.2017 72 16.9N 34.2W 999 41
0000UTC 01.09.2017 84 18.0N 36.4W 996 41
1200UTC 01.09.2017 96 18.9N 38.7W 996 43
0000UTC 02.09.2017 108 19.8N 41.1W 996 44
1200UTC 02.09.2017 120 20.1N 43.4W 996 43
0000UTC 03.09.2017 132 20.2N 45.6W 995 47
1200UTC 03.09.2017 144 20.0N 47.3W 992 55


Interesting that it is moving SW between 132 and 144 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#15 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:17 pm

12Z ECMWF much weaker out through 4 days.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#16 Postby blp » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z ECMWF much weaker out through 4 days.


Yes, and that should mean further west and less likely to gain latitude because of the first weakness in the middle of the atlantic. Interested to see the trough setup toward the end of the run.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#17 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:38 pm

12Z ECMWF 168 hours heading W to WSW between 144 and 168 hours, gaining strength:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:41 pm, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#18 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:38 pm

Image


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#19 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:40 pm

Nice - looks like an old school model brawl. Euro and GFS have very different ways of handling 93L, and not even talking about long range yet. Even 3-7 days, Euro much faster and further west.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#20 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:44 pm

Moving into long-range but getting closer to Lesser Antilles this run:

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests